The world system and the Earth system: global socioenvironmental change and sustainability since the Neolithic

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WORLD SYSTEM ~~~ EARTH SYSTEM

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GLOBAL SOCIOENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY SINCE THE NEOLITHIC

ALF HORNBORG & CAROLE L. CRUMLEY, Eds.

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LEFT COAST PRESS, INC.

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1630 North Main Street, #400 Walnut Creek, CA 94596 http://www.LCoastPress.com Copyright © 2006 by Left Coast Press, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any fo rm or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

The world system and the Earth system : global socioe nvironmental change and sustainabi lity since the Neolithic I edited by Alf Hornborg and Carole L. Cru mley. p. em. ISBN 1-59874- 100-4 (alk. paper)- ISBN-13 978-1-59874-100-1 ISBN 1-59874-101-2 (pbk.: alk. paper)-ISBN -13 978-1-59874-101-8 1. Ecology.

2. Cl imatic changes.

5. Social ecology.

I. Hornborg, Alf.

3. Environmental sciences. II. Crumley, Carole L.

QH541 .W57 2006 304.2-dc22

2006020200

Printed in the United States of America This paper is acid free and meets the minimum requirements of ANSI / NISCO Z39.48-1992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper). Text design by Detta Penna Copyed ited by Stacey Sawyer Cover design by Andrew Brozyna 09 105432

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4 . Human ecology.

Contents

Preface

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Contributors

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Introduction: Conceptualizing Socioecological Systems

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Alf Hornborg

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LUND UNIVERSITY

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Part I Modeling Socioecological Systems: General Perspectives

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Historical Ecology: Integrated Thinking at Multiple Temporal and Spatial Scales

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Carole L. Crumley

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UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA

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Thomas D. Hall

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ALF HORNBORG

accepting genetic explanations ofhuman behavior; cf. Duster 1996.) Although the technical details of modeling complex systems are beyond the horizons of most anthropologists, including me, I assume that a major challenge must be to accommodate the very recursivity between micro- and macro-levels. At a very general level, I sympathize with the early warnings of Gregory Bateson ( 1972a) against delegating to computers our responsibility for pursuing knowledge. In Chapter 4, anthropologist and systems ecologist Tom Abel applies the modeling framework of Howard T. Odum to "world systems" as conceived by Immanuel Wallerstein, Gunder Frank, Chris Chase-Dunn, Tom Hall, and others (Frank 1995; Chase-Dunn & Hall 1991, 1997, 1998; Wallerstein 1974- 1980). Odum's main concern was the flow of energy through social and natural systems; dlis rl1ermodynamic perspective on the metabolism of world systems raises several relevant questions about d1e biophysical requisites and constraints of human societies. One such question concerns the issue of social system boundaries. Although the world-system concept emerged precisely to show that tOtal unitS of social reproduction are more inclusive than are individual nations, nation-state boundaries continue to shape our image of the spatial extent of separate ''societies" within the core and the periphery. Political boundaries are not identical to social system boundaries in the sense of reproductive totalities but can be borl1 less and more inclusive (Hornborg 2007). Colonialism and political imperialism can be viewed as attempts to make rl1e political and the econonlic coincide, but rl1e metabolic flows sustaining modern nations are generally very far fi·om congruent with their political reach. Another question raised by Abel concerns the possible connection between metabolic pulsations, such as Odum identified in ecosystems, and the pulsations that world-system analysts are tracing in human history. World-system pulsations are precisely rl1e topic of Chapter 5, in wllich sociologist Tom D. Hall and ecologist Peter Turcllin argue d1at pulsations or cycles are in themselves indications of the existence of a system of some kind . Drawing on models from population ecology, they review various possible approaches to the apparendy synchrorlized oscillations between demograpllic and socioeconomic expansion and decline in areas as far apart as eastern and western Asia over rl1e past two millennia (cf. Chapter 9 ). Among the factors considered are climate change and the simultaneous "resetting" of several local cycles by other exogenous events such as political conquest and empire formation . The chapter is not primarily concerned wirl1 the empirical identification of such synchronicities but rather ·with the theoretical system models rl1at can be used to account for d1em. It d1us also includes a section on how to analyze the dynamics of demograpllic oscillations in preindustrial England, proposing that a significant and potentially driving factor was d1c degree ofsociopolitical (in )stability. The underlying assumption in this chapter,

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C O NCEPTU ALIZI NG SOC IO EC O L OGI CAL SYSTEMS

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as in the two preceding ones, seems to be that the dynamics of different kinds of complex systems, whether ecosystems or societies, share some regularities that can be approached with the aid of abstract models originally designed to represent the organization of biological systems, for example, evolutionary learning processes (cf. Chapter 12 ). In Chapter 6, the anthropologist Jonathan Friedman challenges such assumptions by reviewing his own pioneering work, in the 1970s, in modeling the dynamic interface of social and ecological systems in Southeast Asia over the long term (Friedman 1979). He recalls how, as a student, he revolted against d1e functionalism and "adaptationism" of cultural materialism and cultural ecology and instead turned to Marxist models emphasizing structural contradictions, crises, and transformations (Friedman 1974 ). This critique ofthe view of socioecological systems as cybernetic "adaptive machines" is still valid today. The risk with applying biological models to social systems continues to be that subsystems are assumed to promote the survival of the larger system, an assumption that lacks support either in theory or in histOrical evidence. Whether attributed to mystical cultural wisdom or conscious decision making, d1e notion ofa societal rationality geared to collective survival must be recognized as wishful thinking, not as a sociological or historical fact ( cf. Horn borg 2005 ). Where Edmund Leach (1954) had seen a social-structural oscillation understandable in its own terms, Friedman saw recurrent contradictions between expansive socioeconomic structures and a fragile natural environment. Friedman's early observations on the pulsating socioecological systems of Highland Burma were later expanded into a general concern with how global systems ofstates and international trade define d1e conditions ofreproduction of local populations and polities. In this chapter, he shows how this perspective was applied to od1er historical cases such as Oceania and d1e ancient Mediterranean area. The pulsations or cycles that he identifies are generated by the structural properties of social systems, rather than by some general dynamics common to all complex systems. These structural properties can be described in terms of culturally specific institutions and contradictions, as he does in all the abovementioned cases, but Friedman simultaneously recognizes the recurrent patterns of hegemony and decline that riddle human histOry and d1at seem to tell us something more general about d1e dynamic of global social systems. Although socioecological systems are not regulated by metaphysical autopilots, this is not to say that they do not exhibit regularities over time. In Chapter 7, the geologist Bjorn E. Berglund uses data from paleoecological studies as well as archeology and history to discuss landscape changes in northwestern Europe from 4000 B.C.E. to 1400 c .E. He reviews eight time periods of particularly dynamic change, five of which were characterized by deforestation and agricultural expansion, and three suggesting regression,

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reduced human impact, and regeneration of forests. There is significant synchronicity between events in different parts of the region, which Berglund tentatively attributes to shared climatic fluctuations. However, cumulative changes in technology, society, and the landscape permitted a successively greater expansion of agriculwre with each new oppornmity. He thus offers a dynan z UJ

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the physical evidence of these understandings. They record both intentional and unintentional acts and reveal both the role of humans in the modification of the global ecosystem and the importance of past natural events in shaping human choice and action. I n short, landscapes are read and interpreted by everyone, as likely to promote lively discussion in a gathering of citizens as in a group of scholars from various discipunes. A working definition of landscape is the spatial manifestation of the human- environment relation (Marquardt & Crumley 1987:1 ). Landscape is thus a convenient idea that serves as an initial (but never the only) spatial scale of analysis. This is for two reasons. First, landscapes do not have an intrinsic temporal or spatial or cognitive scale (for example, one can speal< of the medieval landscape ofEurope or New York's Central Park landscape), but what all landscapes have in common is that they allow us to follow changes in the interaction of humans with their environment over some specified amount of time. Thus "the medieval landscape ofEurope" assumes d1at different elements and relations pertained in Roman or Renaissance or contemporary times and d1at "Europe" itself was a different size and shape and meant somed1ing else. Second, all landscapes are in both real and cognitive "flux" as they are physically modified and imagined in myriad ways. The landscape "scale" is thus powerfully integrative, enabling d1e simultaneous study of both the physical environment and human activity, and leading d1e investigation of factors that helped form a landscape-such as its geology, or an historical event, or an invasive species- to data aggregated at other scales. As with spatial scales, multiple temporal scales are necessarily part of the analysis as data sets with different temporal ranges are collated. Together, spatial and temporal scales are limited only by available data and the research question, and they can include a spatial range from microscopic to global and a temporal range from ver y recent events to deep geological time. By integrating evidence from many different disciplines, the history of human-environment interactions may be sketched for a particular locale. The unique characteristics of every place challenge researchers to integrate a congeries of empirical environmental and cultural information. This necessarily requires the abandonment of notions of "nested" variables-often collectively termed hierarchies-common in biology and appropriated by od1er disciplines. In the real world, both environments and societies present themselves as mosaics, the temporal and spatial boundaries of which are fluid and crisscross one another (de Vries 2002, 2005; Marquardt & Crumley 1987; Nicholas 2001; Pickett & White 1985; Wiens 1976; Winterhalder 1984). Complex systems d1eory offers a means by which d1is nonhierarchical, nonlinear organization may be conceived in the term heterarchy (Crumley 1987b, 1995,

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2001, 2003; Ehrenreich et al. 1995; HotStadter 1979; Marquardt & Crumley 1987; McCulloch 1945; Minsky & Papert 1972). The fundamental utility of this term for rethinking human-environment relations will be explored below. T he social and environmental history of each region of the world may be investigated using archeology, archival materials, oral tradition and history, and proxy measures dra\.vn from the Earth sciences for studying the area's previous and current environmental characteristics. Of obvious importance are rules for analyzing and combining diverse categories of evidence. For each category, the customary disciplinary techniques and protocols are respected (for example, in d1e analysis of pollen or soil or the excavation of an archeological site), but the structure of the inquiry as a whole is synergetic: collectively researchers exchange information and construct rl1e overall design of the research, rl1en continue to communicate as rl1e work advances, together modifYing the research design and working out problems as necessity arises. Inasmuch as historical ecology begins with d1e presumption that contemporary landscapes are the result of multiple factors that have interacted in complex ways rl1roughout history, independent data sets provide an important cross-check in building consensus among collaborators. For example, OA.')'genisotope dating of Kenyan geomorphological samples places a flood event sometime during a ten-year period in dH~ mid-nineteenth century; oral tradition associates the flood wid1 d1e initiation of an age-grade in 1856 or 1857. If d1e evidence from the two sources is contradictory (oral tradition places the flooding in 1888), specialists then return to their data with new queries. (How accurate is the chronological control? Could there have been more than one flood event?) Thus d1e advantages ofbod1 multidisciplinary research (specialists work alone using appropriate techniques) and of interdisciplinary research (specialists cooperate and discover new aspects oftheir data) are combined. While this working arrangement between the Two Cultures may sound ideal, everyone knows that very real battles are being fought. Rather than following Snow into a dualistic world where warring camps send emissaries who more often d1at1 not meet a bad end, I suggest a means by which d1e perception of great dissimilarity between the two may be erased and a third great river of knowledge-older than eid1er-be joined with d1em. This latter is tl1e empirical approach that carried our most distant human ancestors into tl1e present ( Mithen 1996 ). How was its value lost to us? Three influential and interrelated movements in Western intellectual history- tl1e Enlightenment, the formation of the first nation-states, and positivism-have led the majority of intellectual elites and a considerable portion of the general public to abjure traditional knowledge, an empirical tool wid1 which humat1s have always made their way in the world. In its place is an almost religious belief in our ultimate

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l. HISTORI C AL E C O L OGY

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redemption by a sophisticated technology; somehow we will be saved from the outcome of our reckless use of chemicals, bioengineering, nuclear physics, and fossil fuels. Do not mistake the arguments among the Two Cultures combatants as simply academic; d1ey are profoundly political. Everywhere d1eir discourse advocates the dismissal of empirically derived qualitative information in favor of quantifiable data; the ridicule ofindigenous knowledge in favor of technological superiority; d1e adoption of a definition of complexity d1at £-wors hierarchical power over democratic principles. These premises, argued in scholarly articles innocendy housed in dusty libraries, nonetheless underwrite global agendas that threaten the planet and impoverish humanity. Historical ecologists regard history and politics as inseparable. For example, changes in a landscape can be viewed as a history of shifting social power (Crumley 1987a; Mann 1986). Viewed from the present day, landscape history is invariably tied to contemporary politics of compliance, often contrasting scientific and institutional goals wid1 u·aditional societies' practices and public awareness and participation (Brosius 2001; Johnston 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001 ). One need only think of contested cities such as Jerusalem or contested monuments such as Devil's Tower in Wyoming, where Native American religious u·aditions are pitted against d1e very different interests of ranchers, sport climbers, and d1e Park Service. The study of collaborative schemes for solving such community and institutional differences of opinion on environmental issues has made surprising headway in recent years. Some of these schema-collective bargaining, stakeholder participation, role playing, and the European U •lion 's term conce7'tation (meaning cooperative dialogue) -produce solutions that are widely acceptable. The study of such schemes underscores the fundamental role of values and perceptions in forming worldviews. Stakeholders challenge, debate, and come to understand others' positions, and underlying values are examined in a new way (Newell et al. 2005 ; Poncelet 2001 ). This does not mean that organic gardeners are converted to the use of pesticides but that d1e focus of the discussion becomes the stewardship of the Earth and not confrontatio n. T he collective value, then, is environmental well-being and not the iron-clad correctness of one's own position. These democratic schemes for consensus move away fi·om d1e inviolate authority of Science while still valuing its insights, and concede the necessity of democracy in assming compliance. Historical ecology can shepherd these new ways of encouraging agreement: rather than policy makers assuming that their management strategies are superior to indigenous ones, llistorical ecologists can demonsu·ate that indigenous and popular su·ategies are also empirically derived and potentially useful.

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In many non western societies, ecological kno·wledge, resource management systems, and worldviews are inseparable; a large literature in antlu·opology documents creative indigenous solutions to environmental problems (Balee 1998; Bates & Lees 1996; Berkes 1999; Berkes, Colding, & Folke 2003; Berkes & Folke 2002; Brosius 2001 ; Crumley 1994, 2000, 2001, 2003; Lansing 1987, 1991, 1994; Kempton, Boster & Hartley 1995; Netting 1981, 1993; Rappaport 1968; Swesey & Heizer 1977; Trawick 2002). In cognitive anthropology, the analysis of world views has come to be known as the study of cultural models (Holland & Quinn 1987). These models make connections among different types of information and enable prediction and explanation. They are cultural because they are shared and reproduced within a society, and in time become traditional. Diverse cultural models of nature underpin every society's thinking about the environment (Kempton, Boster, & Hartley 1995), and the politics of tl1ese differences fuels environmental justice movements (Jolmston 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001 ). Science-based modeling is quite different. Modelers rarely begin with actual data but tl1eorize about relations among elements. A good example is that of climate modeling, which begins witl1 a set of assumptions about how "drivers'' of climate (for example, insolation, greenhouse gases) interact. Modelers then change the parameters of tl1e model to see how they affect the system. Tllis approach necessarily means tl1at the models need to be kept simple; even then it takes a phalanx of parallel processors a considerable amount of time to run the models. There is little room to include empirical behavior of the system in tl1e form of historic climate and otl1er proxy data. I recall the open derision of any scientific link ben;veen climate and human history from National Oceanic and Atmosphe1ic Administration (NOAA) atmospheric scientists (mostly modelers) as late as a 1992 conference orga1lized by archeologist Ervan Garrison and applied anthropologist Shirley Fiske. Circumstances have changed in tl1e interim, and atmospheric scientists are now more interested in climate history, thanks to the work of some modelers, but much of tl1e burden has rested on historians, geographers, archeologists, and palynologists to demonstrate the utility of historical analogues (for example, Crumley 1994; Gunn 2000; Hughes 1975, 1994, 2001; PAGES Newsletter 2000; Pfister 1999; Pfister, Frenzel, & Glaser 1992; Redman 1999 ). Even tl1ere, of course, tl1ere have been enormous difficulties. The first crude attempts to link human activity and tl1e environment placed humans in an unequal relation with their surroundings (Huntington 1907, 1924). Led by social scientists and humanists, the rightful critique of this determinist effort remains a vivid part of their disciplinary socialization, spilling over into tensions between sociocultural anthropologists on the one hand and archeologists

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l. HISTORI C AL ECOLOGY

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and physical anthropologists on the other. One example: I once shared with a cultural anthropologist a taxicab fi-om the airport to the atmual American Anthropological Association meetings. I responded to her question about my interests by saying that I study relationships between long-term climate change and human societies. She looked horrified, physically moved away from me on the taxicab's back seat, and said, "but that's Enviro1m1ental Determinism, isn't it?" She said not another word to me for the rest of the ride. How might these two very different notions of models be combined? Although one approach is primarily inductive (cultural models) and the other deductive (computer models), both are empirical, require creativity and learning, and their utility can be judged. Why not invite interested modelers of both kinds to a conference where the keynote speech addresses points of similarity in the two approaches rather than differences? In the current climate of hostility, perhaps the most important characteristic of historical ecology is that it celebrates the open-minded quest of scientific inquiry, the phenomenological intensity of the human experience of place, and the empirical basis for bod1. Moreover, rl1e study of changes in d1e temporal and spatial configurations of landscapes, in conjunction wid1 work in cognition, offers practical means of integrating the natural and social sciences and the humanities. The historical ecology of any part of the world is always an unfinished manuscript, passed from hand to hand, critiqued, debated, amended, and revised. The approach values insights from the past as well as the present, employs d1e knowledge of science and society, stimulates creative thinking about the mitigation of contemporary problems, and encourages locally and regionally developed answers to global situations in which sensitive cultural issues play an important part.

Intellectual Architecture for the Global Scale Three concepts that draw on intellectual traditions already familiar to many of us could leverage the next stage of integration. They are a revival and expansion of multi-scale ecology, the exploration of complex systems theory, and incorporation of the alternative form of social order termed heterarchy. Revitalizing Multi-Scale Ecology

First used by natural scientists in the late nineteenth century, the term ecolog;' (from the Greek oikos, dwelling) emphasizes the reciprocal relationships among living and nonliving elements of our world. Growing in concert wid1 systems d1eory, ecology emerged as a discipline in its own right by d1e 1960s. The generation that came of age at about the same time our species first set foot

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off-planet (1969) could hardly help but note the contrast between American postwar materialism and the growing human, economic, and environmental toll in Viet Nam. T hey were the first eager students of the new academic discipline of ecology, which became for them shorthand for the relation of our species to all facets of its oikos. For many, the first view of our blue planet and the compelling spirituality of the Gaia hypothesis inspired a definition of ecology that included all scales (local to global) of relations among living and nonliving elements and that explicitly included humans. The discipline ofecology has since bifitrcated, and its emphasis has undergone a scalar shift. Today microecology, witl1 ties through cell and molecular biology and genomics to schools of medicine and public health, dominates the field; macroecology (for example, wildlife ecology, landscape ecology, Earth-systems ecology) trains fewer practitioners and garners fewer research dollars tl1a.t1 does its la.t·ger and better-connected twin. Altl1ough Russian scientists pioneered tl1e concept (Budyko 1980), only recently has tl1e West perceived tl1e need for a global-scale ecology. Broader scale ecologies (for example, landscape ecology) are increasingly important, but even tl1ere lessons from tl1e social sciences atld humanities have been incorporated slowly. For example, many ecologists still think of ecosystems as "natLtral" and hLUnan presence tl1ere as invariably negative, even including tl1e scholarly presence of tl1e research scientists tl1emselves (for example, Forma.t1 & Godron 1986; Naveh & Lieberman 1990). This quest for "pristine" ecosystems to study (tl1at is, ones ostensibly ''witl10ut huma.tl impact"), and tl1e tendency to leave time out of tl1eir considerations of systemic fimction atld structme, has caused Nortl1 American ecologists in particular to stumble over definitions of "wilderness" and its management. Criticisms from witlun and outside ecology have resulted in tl1e search for a fi·amework that draws on the strengths of systems tl1eory, relates myriad antlu·opogetuc atld exogenous factors, and integrates all temporal scales atld every spatial scale fi·om microscopic to global. The editor of a journal that publishes papers in botl1 ecology and history analyzed manuscript reviewers' comments and found that scientists consider lustorians' (mostly qualitative) approaches imprecise and their styles of argumentation histrionic; historians perceive scientific (mostly quantitative) methods to be mechanistic and their findings trivial (Ingerson 1994). Historians concentrate on botl1 intended and unintended consequences of human action and offer convincing examples of the plastic role of history and culture, but tl1ey usually have less command oftl1e biophysical systems tl1at also condition human activity. For their part, many scientists remain naive about how "natural" systems are shaped by politics, belief, and lustory. Journals such as Landscape Ecology, Ecological R estoration, and Ecological Applications offer a forum for integrated approaches.

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l. HISTORICAL E C OLOGY

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The Two Cultures divide between science and the humanities costs t\¥entieth-century ecology not only the insight of multiple spatial scales but also that of time. But it was not just ecology that forgot history and structure in the rush to model process; so too did geography, much of anthropology (incl uding even archeology for a time), physics, and climatology (with the exception of H. H. Lamb 1972-1977, 1995). Ecology could learn much from geology by working at multiple temporal as well as spatial scales and embracing geology's interpretive dialectic between structme and process.

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Adapting Complex Systems Theory to Human Societies

Systems theory was a major influence on ecology from the outset, and complex systems have been a focus of research since the 1930s (Bateson 1972b; Ellen 1982). The benefits of systems thinking are considerable, but there have also been significant criticisms. Chief among several issues is the charge that the approach is inherently reductionist and leads to the modeling of simpler and simpler systems. Just the reverse is required if we are to study our planet, where conjoined human and physical systems make it d1e most complex dissipative system known. The most recent iteration of complex systems research offers new ways to study the dynamics of coupled human- environment systems (for an overview see )olu1son 2001). Key universal feamres are: integration (holism), communication (emergence or self-organization), and history/initial conditions (chaos) . These correspond to key features ofsocial systems: integration (cultme), communication (language, society), and history/initial conditions (traditions, structures and materials, strategies, and habits of mind). Thus communication has emergent properties: two (or more) communicating entities have different attributes tl1an each does alone and together can generate new forms (Jantsch 1982; Kauffman 1993, 1995; Langton 1992; Mitl1en 1996). The development of communication is important for both the emergence of cognition in human history and d1e formation of community. The reproductive aspect ofemergence (termed allopoiesis) satisfactorily characterizes the reproductive and dynamic aspects of human communication, language, and social organization, which persist in collective memory and material culture, are passed on from generation to generation, and are transformed (Climo & Cattell 2002; Connerton 1989; Crumley 2000; Gunn 1994; Maffi 2001; Mcintosh, Tainter, & Mcintosh 2000; Nora 1984 ). This is, of course, an essential definition of culture and a valuable entry point for social scientists. This new systems thinking has opened an important door between tl1e social and biophysical sciences, in that it can accommodate the results of human cognition (religion, politics, and systems of formal knowledge such as science).

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C ARO LE L . C R U M LE Y

Many of us, already familiar with "old" systems thinking and criticisms of it, can find refreshing potential in contemporary complex systems research, which offers a means by which human history and culture can be accommodated in a biophysical fi·amework without reductionism.

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From the earliest human societies to the present day, coupled individual creativity and collective flexibility have met with success. Thus biological diversity has a correlate in human societies: the toleration of difference in individuals and groups and of variety in circumstances increases societal choice and offers a reserve of alternative solutions to problems. Similarly, organizational flexibility-economic, social and political-enables societies to adjust to changed circumstances. Although there exist several useful vocabularies for discussing the organizational characteristics ofsociety, twentieth-century American archeology was dominated by one: the framework of band, tribe, chiefdom, and state (Service 1971). Using this framework, considerable flexibility was attributed to bands and tribes, but much less to stratified societies (chiefdoms and states). The difference was seen primarily in terms of increasing "complexity," defined not as the more richly networked systems of complex systems theory but as increasingly nested, hierarchically organized systems manifest in hierarchies of power and their attendant systems of communication. Yet while hierarchical organization characterizes many aspects of state power, hierarchy alone does not capture the full range of organizational relations. Alternative forms of social order and state power-coalitions, federations, leagues, unions, and communities- are just as important to state operation as they are in more egalitarian groups like bands and tribes. Terming such groupings associations, Service noted their importance. Unfortunately, subsequent archeological theory disregarded this avenue and concentrated instead on how elites constructed power pyramids. Yet as the September 11, 2001 events demonstrate, power flows in many channels (Samford 2000) and can be manifested entirely outside the framework of state hierarchies and beyond their control. In complex systems terminology, this is termed chaos or surprise, and it is related to systemic negligence in engaging other dimensions of power (Cnm1ley 2003). Hierarchy (the classic, pyramidal organizational form ) is a structure composed of elements that on the basis of certain factors are subordinate to others and may be ranked (Crumley 1979:44, 1987b:158; see note 2). Another way of viewing the meshwork of dimensions and levels in large societies is as a heterarchy, the relation of elements to one another when they

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are Lmranked, or when they possess the potential for being ranked in a number of different ways depending on conditions. Understood from a heterarchical perspective, sources of power are counterpoised and linked to values, which are fluid and respond to changing situations. This definition of hctcrarchy and its application to social systems is congruent with Warren McCulloch's research into how the brain works (McCulloch 1988). A strong influence on the complex systems theorist Kauffman (1993, 1995:xx), McCulloch first employed heterarchy ( 1945) to examine independent cognitive structures in the brain, the collective organization of which he terms heteranhy. He demonstrates that the human brain adjusts by re-ranking values as circumstances change. McCulloch's heterarchical "nervous nets" are the source of the brain's flexibility. Thus an individual can simultaneously be against abortion rights and for the death penalty (or vice versa). The context of the inquiry and changing (and frequently conflicting) values (Bailey 1971; Cancian 1965, 1976; Crumley 1987b) mitigates this logical inconsistency and is related to what Bateson (1972b), following Russell, terms logical types. Priorities are re-ranked relative to conditions and can result in major structural adjustment. McCulloch's insights about the autonomous nature of information stored in the brain and how parts of the brain communicate revolutionized the neural study of the brain. They also solved major organizational problems in the fields of artificial intelligence and computer design (Minsky & Papert 1972). What McCulloch realized was that information stored in bundles as values in one part of the brain may or may not be correlated with information stored elsewhere; in computer terminology, subroutine A can subsume ("call") subroutine B and vice versa, depending on the requirements of the program. Rather than the "tree" hierarchy of the first computers, those today use an addressing (information-locating) RAM (Random Access Memory) system that is heterarchical, more like a network or a matrix (De Landa 1997). Anotl1er example of tl1e utility of complex systems tl1eory is in tl1e critique of ecologists' tl1eories of ecosystem structure and process (Winterhalder 1984). While a shared goal is to define change over time, the difference is in how it is seen as occurring, whether in an "orderly" (linear, hierarchical) fashion or in a more dynamic manner. Frederic Clements's influential paradigm of succession involved the idea of orderly, linear, and predictable stages-early succession, midsuccession, and climax-in which tl1ere was no room for human activity except as "disturbance" of "natural" processes. Informed by complex systems tl1eory, historical ecology traces geographically specific, dynamic human-environmental relationships tl1at are not bound by tl1e old laws of equilibrium and stasis. In summary, heterarchies are self-organizing systems in which tl1e elements stand counterpoised to one anotl1er. In social systems, tl1e power of various

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dements may fluctuate relative to conditions, one of the most important of which is the degree of systemic communication. Hierarchies and heterarchies of power coexist in all human societies. Societal dilemmas in which values are in conflict arc resolved by achieving a novel, transcendent state that either ranks competing values relative to one another (hierarchy) or does not allow them to be definitively ranked (heterarchy). At each successive level of integration and over time, new ordering principles come into play. Thus, conflict or inutility leads to suspension of old forms but ensures the preservation of useful elements through communication to provide creative new solutions to challenges, that is, transcendence of older forms. In these novel forms societies retain nearterm flexibility, although there is of course no guarantee that the new form is more stable than the old or that tensions will not reappear in anoti1er guise. For example, revitalization movements such as the Native American Ghost Dance or the "born again" phenomenon seek transcendence through individual and collective rededication based on both new information and ti1e retention of selected old values; this is also termed maze-way reformulation (Wallace 1970). The addition of ti1e term heterarchy as a descriptor of power relations in so-called complex societies (Crumley 1979, 1987b, 1995b) is a reminder that there exist in every society forms of order that are not hierarchical, and ti1at interactive elements in complex systems need not be permanently ranked relative to one another. Although a heterarchical ("egalitarian") form of order has long been recognized in smaller ("simpler" ) societies, it has been rejected as an appropriate organizational form for states. It is both impractical and inaccurate to exclude such a fundamental adjustment mechanism from the characterization of more populous political forms. The more successfully a society consolidates power and melds distinct hierarchies (for example, religious, political, economic) into hypcrhicrarchy or hypcrcohcrcncc, the less flexibility there is in dealing witl1 surprise (Crumley 2001, 2003). The current theoretical paradigm in archeology and elsewhere, which f: z UJ

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neutral terms. The term environment must encompass the built environment, the culmrallandscape, and namre wild and tame. The definition of ecology must include humans as a component of all ecosystems. The term history must include that of the Earth system as well as the social and physical past of our species. Construction of an integrated fi·amework has proven difficult, in large part because of the scalar incompatibility of human activity with planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena. Patterns of settlement and land use, emissions, and extractive procedures must be investigated at regional and local scales. However, aggregated human behavior in regard to global-scale changes (for example, climate) must be verified at the macro-scale tl1rough methods involving parallel change events in widely dispersed regions. Growing scientific understanding of the interconnectivity of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere in the global system provides reasonable background cause-and-effect linkages and cyclicity, but wide-ranging social science theory and metl1ods must be articulated to meet global science and attribute broader systemic causation. Without environmental and cultural information at local and regional scales, tl1ere exists no oppormnity to test and refine global models; witl10ut planetaryscale confirmation of tl1e long-term effects of human activity, arguments over values (embedded in property rights, social justice, environmental policy, and otl1er issues) will not abate. Policy makers everywhere are ad hoc students of causation. They address myriad issues in which human and environmental conditions are inextricable. Situations they must anticipate and to which they must respond require enormous knowledge at multiple scales oftime and space. After all, there is no reform without compliance; history and society, messy as they are to integrate into scientific research, are offimdamental importance (Johnston 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001 ). All dissipative systems-including human societies-are subject to profound change. In tl1at tl1ere is no guarantee of progress, we are a species like any other. For humankind, this means that we are not inevitably on a rising stair of accomplishment but may find ourselves in the blink of an eye in a condition much more dire and hopeless than at any time in tl1at part of human history red in tooth and claw. We must review a description of the world that is solely mechanistic and denies spirituality as an essential characteristic of tl1e human species. We have allo·wed pragmatic arguments to triumph in almost every quarter and to relegate emotions to a small, closely moderated compartment of our psyche. While tl1ey were not the earnest ecologists some have imagined, our human forebears did at least see tl1at tl1e sun, the heavens, the earth, the waters, their fellow creatures, and tl1ey formed a single system, and held all sacred. While they too made management mistal z UJ

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Historical ecology marshals a powerful array ofconceptual and practical tools, permitting the integrated investigation of change dtiven by conditions at global, regional, and local scales. It honors the values, knowledge, and sensibilities of people at aJJ times and places. It is also a practical guide for research, encouraging interdisciplinary discoveries, aiding conservation, and amplifYing creative and integrative explanation. In it we have a means by which we can study ourselves as a conscious species in conjunction with the history of om planet. Historical ecology can show us how om world works, how -vve are not bystanders but instigators of change in the world, and how we must now act on its behalf.

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Notes l. For an overview of historical ecology sec Crumley 1994 and Balcc 1998. Don S. Rice attributes the first use of the term to the archeological palynologist EdwardS. Deevey, who directed the Historical Ecology Project at the University of Florida in the early 1970s. Historian J. Donald Hughes uses the term en11i1··onmental history in his 1975 book, but with a human ecologist, an economist, anthropologists, and other historians contributed to Historical Ecology: Essays on Environment and Social Change ( 1981 ) edited by historian Lester J. Bilsky. Anthropologist Alice Ingerson organized a session on historical ecology at the 1984 American Anthropological Association annual meeting. She sought to address the chasm between culntral and environmental studies in anthropology, and to explore political economy and social history approaches. I first used the term as the title of a chapter in R egional Dynamics: B~t1'l]tmdian Landscapes in Historical Perspective (1987a) edited with William H. Marquardt, and subsequently edited a School of American Research volume entitled Historical Ecology: Cultural Knowledge and Changing Landscapes (1994a). Since the early 1990s ethnographer and cultural ecologist William Balec has been fostering historical ecology; together we have edited the Historical Ecology Series for Columbia University Press (Balee 1998; Mcintosh, Tainter, & Mcintosh 2000). Restoration ecologists Dave Egan and Evelyn A. Howell have edited The Historical Ecology Handbook: A R estorationist7s Guide to R eference EcOSJ'Stems (2001 ). A recent search ofWeb sites employing the term found dozens of references representing a variety of projects. Most, but not all, of these sites explicitly address the relation between the environment and human activity. 2. For further reading about heterarchy and its connection to brain research, computer design, artificial intelligence, and social organization, sec, for example, Bateson 1972b; Crumley 1979, 1987b, 2001, 2003a, 2003b; C rumley & Marquardt 1987; Ehrenreich, Crumley, & Levy 1995; Kontopoulos 1993; McCulloch 1945, 1988; Minsky & Papert 1972; Mitl1en 1996.

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CHAPTER 2

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Toward Developing Synergistic Linkages between the Biophysical and the Cultural: A Paleoenvironmental Perspective

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Increasingly, global change research communities are highlighting the need to develop closer links between biophysical and cultural perspectives and approaches. For someone trained as a geographer in d1e United Kingdom some 45 years ago, dlls kind of goal seems both less innovative and perhaps less achievable than it may seem to many ·working on either side of the divide, but coming from other disciplines. T he goal seems less innovative because it closely parallels one of the recurrent themes in geography, that of reconciling, perhaps even finding common ground between and to some extent muting, d1e " physical" and "human" branches of the subject; less achievable, because most attempts within geography have fow1dered on d1e sheer difficulty of sharing a common conceptual framework. Just as the conceptual frameworks differ, so inevitably do views on d1e reasons for the difficulties. This perspective is a personal one, colored by a long career almost entirely on d1e biophysical side of d1e divide. One of the research areas widlln wruch there is clearly a growing and increasingly successful merging of biophysical and cultural/socioeconomic perspectives, to the point of synergistic, functional interaction rather than interwoven narrative, is in the development of Integrated Assessment Models and the scenarios they can generate. As far as I can judge, and despite exciting conceptual developments in lustorical ecology (for example, Crumley l994a ), very litde comparable is happetung in paleo-research. This leads me to d1e rather paradoxical view d1at the desired merging is currently more readily achievable in "cyberspace" d1an in past reality. No doubt d1e need for-hence the fimding available for-groups developing future scenarios that unite a wide range of biophysical and socioeconomic perspectives provides a powerful incentive. At

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the same time, questions about the future create an Lmusual inferential context. Not only is there shared uncertainty when story lines stretch beyond the limits of secure empirical underpinning; most of the future scenarios developed are, by definition, unverifiable in the short term. Could it be that these qualities that distinguish the shared context of "futures" research reduce the mutual vulnerability that might otherwise arise in the participating groups? There is also more comparability in methodologies between futme -oriented social and biophysical scientists than between their more traditional counterparts, as well as a relaxation in the degree to which each is likely to be trammeled by his or her respective disciplinary traditions, with their tendency to entrench academic imperialism (and xenophobia). From these considerations, we may conclude that just as there is a divide between the biophysical and the sociocultural, there is an equally significant one between scientists focusing on present and future patterns and processes and scientists dealing with the past. Both divides need to be add1·essed. If, for the moment, we turn to the past, we may perhaps come closer to addressing the problem ofthe gap between biophysical and cultural perspectives by considering the modes of research currently adopted in the paleo-research community. Although these modes defy rigid classification, we can propose a rather loose t~xonomy for them based on tl1e dominant purpose underlying various modes: l. narrative reconstruction of the past sequence of events; 2. establishment of time-slice "realities"; 3. provision of the recent antecedents to present-day environmental systems; 4. post-hoc hypothesis testing; and 5. elucidation of processes and process interactions. T hese categories overlap and are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but they lead me toward my next main point-namely, that tl1e merging of biophysical and cultural perspectives is easiest to achieve in the case of the first research mode, that of narrative, or sequential reconstruction. There are many parallels in research mode between the paleoecologist and the historian (see Figure 1). Moreover, narrative can be achieved safely without contravening embargos fi-om the cultural side of the fence on deterministic or oversimplified, mechanistic thinking. In conceptual terms, narrative also falls comfortably within what Head (2000) explores and illustrates extensively under the term contingency, by which she means "the historical particularity of sets of circumstances." This concept closely parallels that of "emergence" in chaos

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ENVIRONMENTAL EVIDENCE

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theory. Interwoven narrative is not sufficient if we are aiming to develop more generalizable perspectives from combining the cultural and the biophysicaL I would claim that the fifth mode is the most important. In present-day paleoenvironmental research, many of the best elucidations of past processes and process interactions are the result of close collaboration between the data and the modeling communities. There are many examples of this ranging across themes as diverse as the mid-Holocene desiccation of the Sal1ara and the ascription of recent climate change to particular combinations offorcings and feedbacks . Might this type of interaction suggest a way for·ward for merging biophysical and cultural perspectives on past changes in societies and ecosystems at a level that embraces functional interactions and leads to real

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synergy? The study by Dean and colleagues (1999) could be a pointer in the right direction. All this brings us to the not very original suggestion that whether we are dealing with interactions between humans and their environment in the past or the funtre, the conceptual fi·amework within which diverse perspectives may best be linked is one that places strong emphasis on models and modeling. To what extent are there emerging paradigms that recognize this and provide some kind of framework ·within ·which future dialogue can take place fruitfully? We may begin by trying to articulate some criteria that the fi·amework and the med1odologies that it includes should meet. I believe that Cronon (1992) set us on the right pad1 in his brief critique of postmodernist approaches to environmental history, though still very much wid1in d1e framework ofnarrative reconstruction. He proposed three criteria that narratives of environmental history must meet: They should not contradict known facts about the past; d1ey should not contravene our present understanding of environmental and ecological processes; and we should be prepared to recognize that, as individual scholars, we act within a pattern of affiliations-both academic and nonacademic- and that from dus arise preconceptions as well as a collective critique and a context of evaluative constraints. These criteria seem to me to serve the empiricists well, irrespective of wluch side of the human/biophysical divide their interests and expertise may lie. Is it possible to develop a sinlliar set of criteria for model development? An ideal set of criteria for d1e biophysical realm might require that all models satisfY the following: l. internal consistency; 2. compliance wid1 all applicable biophysical laws; 3. compatibility wid1 the constraints imposed by secure and relevant data; and 4. robust performance under a range of credible boundary conditions. The second criterion may need to be relaxed to some degree, because we recogtuze d1at d1e dynamics of d1e Earth system at no time generate ideal steady states and will d1erefore always f. z UJ

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and at the later stage of model evaluation, though d1e same data cannot be used at bod1 stages. Increasingly, iliis circumstance has led to a relationship bet\veen models and data analogous to Popper's scheme of deductive science. Looked at from a Popperian perspective, the model, as initial hypod1esis, can be falsified by independendy derived data. Improving ilie model to bring it closer to compatibility with d1e data and enhancing d1e quality of the data in order to provide increasingly secure and well-defined constraints dms go hand in hand in d1e search for explanatory models d1at do not contravene d1e best available data. Such models may ilien serve as refined and unfalsified hypod1eses. If, as seems likely, our windows into d1e future continue to take d1e form of model-based scenarios or "story lines" and if, as is manifesdy the case, future data are unavailable, model building and testing must rely, for its empirical inputs, bod1 on what we can observe and measme now and what we can reconstruct fi·om d1e past-which brings us to d1e final criterion. In d1e largely mechanistic biophysical world and despite all d1e hurdles imposed by stochastic processes, nonlinear behavior, and emergence, it is reasonable tO take the view d1at the performance of a model developed ro simulate present and future processes and interactions can be tested by applying it to periods in ilie past when forcings and boundary conditions were markedly different. When paleosimulations are inconsistent wid1 data for ilie target period, iliis inconsistency seriously undermines confidence in d1e robustness and fi.tture applicability of ilie model. Consistency bet\veen model simulations and data from the past may be regarded as an essential, if not necessarily sufficient, indicator of ilie likely reliability of future simulations. In d1is rather simplified formulation, our study of the past serves not simply to improve our knowledge of past states, rates, and processes as antecedents to d1e present and fi.ttme; it also serves as a basis for testing our ability to understand d1e processes and d1eir interactions, and for evaluating d1e extent to which we have been able to develop, from iliese insights, models and simulations consistent wid1 om empirical knowledge. Broadening the scope of d1e model-data interactions to include human systems in all d1eir interconnected complexity takes me well beyond the limits of my personal competence. All I can do is ask colleagues on the other side of d1e "divide" to what extent d1e preceding scheme of model-data/presentpast-future interactions is applicable wid1in their realm. Note iliat it depends strongly on a degree of fi.mdamental conformity of relationships d1rough time d1at allows past, present, and future to be treated in a similar way, no matter how dramatically different the boundary conditions and process interactions may be at different times. Even a partial and qualified affirmative may open up a methodological framework for future synergy. One area wid1in \vhich d1is already appears to have been given is in reconstructing past land cover (Petit

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& Lambin 2002) and predicting future land use (Lambin, Rounsevell, & Geist 2000; Veldkamp & Lambin 2001 ). We now return to the broader question of paradigms that may provide a wider, overarching context within which any emerging methodology may be set. Recent writings have pointed toward several possibilities. Starting from the biophysical side of the bridge, the emerging concept of Earth System Science (ESS) provides one kind of fi·amework. The Earth system, of which the climate system is only a part, may be seen as a dynamic entity, consisting of coupled, strongly interacting processes and biogeochemical cycles. Hutjes and colleagues (1998 ) observe that "it becomes more and more widely recognized that the fundamental properties of the climate system . .. do not depend on the capacity of separate subsystems, or on the unidirectional driving of one component on the other. Rather, the Earth system behaves as a dynamic entity, consisting of coupled, strongly interacting processes and biogeochemical cycles." In the forthcoming International GeosphereBiosphere Program (IGBP) synthesis (Steffen et al. 2004), the Earth system is defined as "broadly the suite of interacting physical, chemical, and biological global-scale cycles (often called biogeochemical cycles) and energy fluxes which provide the conditions necessary for life on the planet." It is clear from a huge array ofliterature that over the last century, the human population of the planet has become a major force in virtually every aspect of the Earth system. The concept of Earth System Science thus embraces human activities as they affect the functioning of the planet and its capacity to serve as a context for life, especially that of our own species. Overall, I would guess that the perspective ofESS is less anthropocentric than humanists would wish. Humans enter in as participants, even major drivers of change in the system. Less attention is given to the nature of social organization or to human perceptions and priorities as these affect societal responses. My impression is that ESS is only part of the fi·amework needed to unite biophysical and human perspectives. Developing from and going beyond ESS toward a grand view of its significance, both fundamental and normative, is Schellnhuber's (1999 ) proposal that we are witnessing a second Copernican revolution, one in which, for the first time, we can strive to understand the complex workings of the Earth system as a whole in sufficiently complete and quantitative terms to both model and manage it. Whether or not one can fully accept the normative (and potentially highly prescriptive) aspects of Schellnhuber's formulation, tl1e focus on sustainable development is one shared by many across the biophysical/ human divide. But I see it more clearly as a shared goal tl1an as a concept easily translatable into a fi·amework for integrated, collaborative research embracing the past as well as tl1e future. For me, the key question is, can sustainable development, as a goal, be translated into a research agenda that avoids the

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taint of global control that emerges from Schellnhuber's analysis? Different analysts have responded to this in different ways. Taking the rather different view favored by writers such as Funtowicz and Ravetz (1 992, 1993 ), Haug and Kaupenjohann (2001 ), and Saloranta (2001), we may ask if the only type of research that is sufficiently responsive to the combination of urgency and Lmcertainty, provoked by fears of the consequence of global change, is that in tl1e "postnormal" mode set out by these autl1ors. They highlight what they see as a discontinuity between traditional science and the role in which scientists responsive to the demands of future policy makers are cast (see below). This seems quite unsatisfactory to anyone who has worked to integrate research on past, present, and future changes by stressing the time continuum benveen them, tl1at is, the extent to which any present ''baseline" is conditioned by past processes and the need to understand and quantity long term changes. By integrating tl1e past with the present and tl1e future, will it be possible to strengthen the human dimensions of future scenarios, thereby helping to bridge more effectively tl1e gap not only benveen the biophysical and the human but between "normal" and ''postnormal" science? Reference to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC 2001 ) shows how the evaluation of current trends and of the scientific basis for modeling the climate input to future scenarios has been crucially informed by reconstructions of past climate variability. To what extent can similar progress be achieved with regard to human societies and decision-making processes? This issue brings us back to one of the questions already posed above. It is worth noting at this stage that the main difference benveen biophysical and human scenariobuilding is not simply that of uncertainty. For example, it is doubtful whether the uncertainties attached to estimates of the level of future greenhouse gas emissions are eitl1er wider or less readily quantifiable tl1a11 those attached to the roleofwatervaporand clouds as feedback agents in the atmosphere of the future. As already noted, it is rather an issue of whether it is possible to find patterns tl1at adequately capture quantifiable conformity in human behavior tl1rough time, despite the spatial and temporal discontinuities in cultures. As Haug and Kaupenjoham1 (200 1) note: "Altl1ough calibration may adapt models to data sets oftl1e past, it does not assure predictive capacity, nor validity." Further, they envisage that science may split into an "academic branch" and a "managerial, public policy branch," and tl1at modeling for science per se and modeling for decision making may diverge. Their analysis thus disconnects future-oriented, hence policy-oriented, science from traditional science by su·essing several aspects that lie outside the traditional scientific realm-the relevance of values, self-organization, and indeterminacy in the complex, transdisciplinary systems requiring evaluation.

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My personal view is that d1is alleged dichotomy is constructed, in part, through caricature; moreover, that d1e interchange and the synergy between d1e two modes of science are both achievable and essential. Ifl am correct, then our studies of the past should have a key role to play, but, in some of the most important areas of research, those who ignore d1e past have hijacked the agenda. One of the reasons for this is d1at knowledge of past processes and interactions is more likely to constrain scenario development and impair its fluency than to facilitate it. Where the only criteria are apparent credibility and acceptance by users, testing against independendy derived empirical data runs the risk of becoming redundant. Somehow, d1ere must be a fully shared and open-minded appraisal of the past involving those "vhose primary task is to develop future scenarios and d10se who strive for empirically based reconstructions of d1e past, whether from a biophysical or a cultural standpoint. Kenneth Boulding (1973) o nce noted that, "whereas all experiences are ofd1e past, all decisions are about d1e future ... [I ]t is the great task ofhumanlmowledge to bridge this gap and find d1ose patterns in the past which can be projected into the future as realistic images .... " One possible way forward is for researchers from both sides of the biophysical/cultural divide to pose questions arising from their own studies and experience d1at seem to require both kinds of perspective. Out of these questions may develop hypotheses linking both kinds of processes interactively. These in turn should generate models that can be tested against d1e full range of empirical evidence. At the stage where testable models are developed, there might be a much better chance of using the insights gained from d1e past to inform d1e business of providing fi.tture impact scenarios. Perhaps this strategy is a long shot, and it certainly is not a simple research agenda, but I can see no od1er way of bridging the several gaps outlined in tlus paper-between biophysical and cultural perspectives, empirical and model-based modes of research, and past reconstruction and future scenario development. The best I can offer as partial starting points are some of the questions that have arisen in my own mind from d1ose times when my research has been concerned with past human impacts on the environment. Two sets of questions will suffice as illustrations. First, d1roughout the long span of environmental lustory reconstructed from Holocene pollen diagrams from many sites fi·om western Europe, d1e sequences of deforestation and associated soil erosion take several forms. In some cases, the first discernable impact suddenly transforms the surrounding environment dramatically, and there is no fi.tlJ recovery (see, for example, d1e records from Lago Albano in Guilizzoni & Oldfield 1996). Elsewhere, the first impact niggers gradual changes that are never reversed (see, for instance, Godwin 1944): d1ey seem to be essentially incremental. In other

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regions, there is a lengthy sequence of alternation between forest and open land before one or other becomes established to the point ofpersisting until the present day (see, for example, Oldfield 1963). What t'lctors Lmderlie these differences? Are they a simple function of the initial resilience or otherwise of the preimpact ecosystem? Do ecosystem characteristics combine with regional climate to create spatial and temporal gradients of ecosystem vulnerability? Are the differences the result rather of contrasts in the type ofland use or the persistence and intensity of human exploitation? How may these several influences interact to generate the different kinds of sequence observed? Second, recent studies both from d1e region around Rome, where d1e records are rather localized (Guilizzoni & Oldfield 1996; Ramrath, Sadori, & Negendank 2000), and from d1e Adriatic, where d1e sediment and pollen source areas are very extensive (Oldfield et al. 2003a), the history of deforestation and of soil erosion giving rise to changed and accelerated sedimentation shows tvvo periods of intense impact, the first from the Bronze Age, d1e second from Medieval times. Relatively little environmental impact appears to have occurred during d1e Roman period. By contrast, in nord1ern England, d1ere are sites where the impact of deforestation dw-ing late Iron Age and Romano-British times was more severe than anything before or since (Oldfield 1963); Oldfield et al. 2003b; Oldfield & Statham 1966). What is d1e basis for this contrast? Is it a question of historical contingency, reflecting the earlier history of the two regions, with d1e "damage" already done in the Mediterranean environments? Is it linked to the different opportunities for agricultural production offered by the contrasted climates in the two regions? Docs it reflect, in part at least, the nature of the political economy ofimperial Rome, with strongly contrasted attitudes to land management in core and peripheral regions? Surely more than one ofd1ese potential explanations is involved. Might it be possible to develop models linking these factors together in an explanatory framework to generate testable post hoc simulations? Finally, what are the conceptual barriers that have to be overcome to make for better interactions? I suggest that d1ey fall into two categories: "intrinsic" and "affective." Among the intrinsic barriers are questions of repeatability, predictability, and falsifiability, as considered briefly above. Each of these interlinked concepts may be thought of as generating a spectrum along which biophysical and cultural processes will often occupy very different zones. As for affective barriers, one of the strongest (as perceived from the biophysical side of the divide) is the need for culturaljsocial scientists to place their work in a d1eoretical fi·amework, d1e adoption of which would radically alter its interpretation. Somehow, we need to learn how to overcome both kinds of barrier through mutual curiosity and respect.

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CHAPTER 3

Integration of World and Earth Systems: Heritage and Foresight z

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This chapter addresses one of the pressing problems of our time: ho-vv do we anticipate future human- environmental conditions in the face of interacting economic, social, and biophysical changes? The chapter summarizes how past complex interactions betw·een nan1re and society may be identified, described, and analyzed using a methodology that combines documentary, archeological, instrumental, and sedimentary archives within spatially defined landscape units. The scope of this approach is illustrated with "parallel histories" compiled from a historical rural case study in China covering the last millermium. Here I argue that an optimum methodology for anticipating future changes uses parallel histories as the means for validating rule-based simulation models, such as cellular automata. The problems and limitations of the methodology are discussed, with the main conclusion that regional aspects of world history and Earth systems have a shared heritage that can, in many locations, be identified and analyzed sufficiently well to provide an understanding of past socioenvironmental interactions. A new phase of model development and experimentation can be expected to improve our theoretical understanding of socioenvironmental change and environmental foresight.

The Past Becoming the Future We all have a qualitatively different view on the way human society interacts with the natural environment. But a consensus would probably not fall too short of the view that the lo ng-term security of all societies will depend in part on our ability to combine more effectively our knowledge of tl1e natural environment and society: the functioning of each and their two-way interaction. Attempts to visualize the complexity of these interactions are rarely made, but 38

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the Swedish artist, O yvind Fahlstrom, produced a number of maps and models in the 1970s that portrayed the world system at that time. 1n pmely qualitative and subjective terms, he defined the links between different sociopolitical systems, economics, population, natural resources, and pollution. In 1973 he created the "Garden-A World Model" comprising a physical "interlocking 3-D puzzle" created from abstract colored shapes suspended at different levels within the confines of a "garden." His preliminary work, "Study for World Model (Garden)," captures the train of thoughts and observations that underlie the model. These are categorized according to his views on the capitalist drivers of the global environmental crisis (The Tie), the unbalanced relationships between resomces, population pressure, and economics (The Conflict), and the alternative futures of planning, fascism, or revolution (The Choice). It is a chaotic cartoon that includes sketches of political leaders and regional environmental crises set within a time dimension, centered on the 1970s, which stretches from the recent past into the near finure. In short, it provides a pictorial representation of the multidimensional web of interactions that link Earth and world systems. Fahlstrbm's futures included "low profile military imperialism," "holography," "biologyI genetics," "extrasensory perception," "energy crises," and accelerated growth to feed profit-based economies. T hirty years on, we recognize the veracity of many of these elements and links, and even predictions, while rejecting the importance of others. But it is also clear that neither Fahlstrbm nor anybody else was able to foresee other major developments. In the early 1970s, envirom11ental scientists were yet to compile compelling evidence for global warming driven by human actions, the medical sciences could only guess at the cumulative effects of HIVI AIDS, and political scientists had not anticipated the break-up of centrally planned economies. In creating new institutions such as the Kyoto Protocol, modif),ing regional demographic profiles, and redefining geopolitical goals- just three developments of many- have dramatically altered the functioning of the world system and the way that we now perceive its future path. The past becoming the future follows diverse parallel and linked lineages. Multidimensionality, interactions, and complexity may be the implicit watchwords of Fahlstrbm's images, but they are also a reminder, if we need it, that the difficulties of describing and explaining the past and the current world system are nothing compared to the problems of fo reseeing its future. The link between complex systems, science, and Fahlstrom's art is conveniently summed up in Edward Wilson's statement: "The love ofcomplexity without reductionism makes art; the love of complexity ';vith reductionism makes science" (Wilson 1998:58). Whether Fal1lstrbm loved the complexity he observed or was simply driven to grappling with it (and one strongly senses the

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latter), it is obvious that descriptive models can provide only the starting point on the road toward the creation of workable and dynamic complex models that may help us anticipate our future. Some ·writers cast a more pessimistic view than Wilson's on the ability of science to solve humanity's complex problems, making open declarations of uncertainty. They argue that we may be close to a point where scientific advance slows down in the face of the challenges to find appropriate scientific methodologies that can realistically handle complexity (Horgan 1996; Pollack 2003 ). T his chapter embraces these challenges: how should we develop and apply scientific method to the creation of predictive models that embrace the complexity of Earth and world systems? It considers our current Lmderstanding of past socioenvironmental systems in the light of complexity d1eory in order to identify appropriate model requirements. It argues for existing modeling approaches to be explicitly embedded witl1in histories of socioenvironmental interaction. It proposes a methodology d1at combines natural and social sciences in a framework whereby complexity theory, reductionism, and synthesis each plays a role.

Complex Socioenvironmental Systems With the impetus of recent climate projections and population growtl1 models for the present century, the ability of nations and regions either to mitigate the worst trends or to adapt to future scenarios is now prioritized in international scientific agenda. Journal editorials (Lawton 2001 ), global science declarations (Amsterdam Declaration 2001), and global research agendas (for example, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program; United Nations) argue forcefully for a new focus on the Eartl1 as a complex set of interacting subsystems (see Figure 1 ), \vhere nonlinear change is likely to be tl1e rule rad1er d1an d1e exception. In recent years, systems thinking has been dominated by tl1e rapid developments in the field of nonlinear system dynamics and complexity theory. Complex adaptive and interactive systems are characterized by feedbacks, thresholds, and self-organization. In the twentieth century, these theories were originally driven by findings fi·om physics and biology, with a strong emphasis on abstract mathematical models. Partly as a result, the implications of complexity tl1eory have yet to disperse fully among tl1e environmental and social sciences, where tl1ere has been a reluctance to embrace its concepts and metl1odological tools. Exceptions include Manuel De Landa's (1997) rewriting of European environmental history over the last millennium in terms of "geological" and "biological," nonlinear progressions, and Peter Allen's (1997) attempts to model urban landscapes through tl1e application of complex systems tl1eory. In

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more complex nature of socioenvironmental systems, particularly in terms of cross-scale process interaction and the nature and timelines of emergent phenomena. Socioenvironmental systems are characterized by the growth of far longer-lived emergent phenomena at all scales: social institutions, social structures, ecosystems, and geomorphic forms. Thus the main requirements for socioenvironmental simulation models at local and regional scales are to capture the simultaneous growth of emergent phenomena that can be observed historically- as in the Erhai case study- over a variety of timescales and '"vi thin spatially defined zones. These tested models can then be run forward (Figure 4) to simulate fi.Iture systems under different scenarios of environmental and societal change, allowing the opportunity to test alternative hypotheses and to run "what if' experiments .

Foresight through Simulation Cellular automata (CA) models appear to satisfy many of these requirements because they simulate interactions between processes represented by fundamental rules. Cellular automata were originally created as toy models to simulate the complexity of hypothetical systems but have now graduated to applications in the natural and social sciences. At their heart lies a spatially explicit landscape defined as a series of contiguous cells. Each cell has a number of rules that determine how neighboring cells will change. At each time step, the state and the conditions of each cell are updated to provide new states and conditions for the rules to operate on. Through continuous interaction, the rules generate emergent patterns and features, capturing along the way the feedbacks, time lags, and leads that prove so intractable to alternative methods. Complex and unpredictable behavior is typical of even simple toy models whose cells have rules for whether they should turn black or white according to the state of neighboring cells (Wolfram 2002). CA models can be classified according to the level of functional rules used, the means by which and the timescales over which d1e model is validated, and the extent to which the activities ofhtm1an agents and decision making are made explicit. Tucker and Slingerland ( 1997) and Could1ard, Macklin, and Kirkby (2002) have pioneered d1e use of mathematical biophysical cellular models in catchment hydrology with low-level rules (relating to fimdamental processes of energy and matter expressed as mathematical equations), long timescales ranging fi·om decades to millennia, but with limited inclusion of agents. The basic cell in Tom Coulthard's CAESAR model is a cube wid1 edge ranging from 1 m to 50 m, subdivided to represent the land smfuce and d1e subsmfuce h01izons. Each divided section of cube has embedded mathematical algorithms to characterize

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hydrology, hydraulics, and sediment transport processes. The interactions between cubes for any defined catchment are driven by regional rainfall, temperatme, and land-use records (or their reconstructed equivalents) acting as inputs to the equations at each time-step. Environmental changes are expressed as sequential maps or as time-series of outputs fi·om the whole catchment. For example, the sediment generation curves simulated over the last 10,000 years for upland catclunents in the United Kingdom (see Figure 5) capture the same trend and frequency-magnitude behavior that is seen in aggregated time-series of alluvial activity produced from dated stratigraphic sections (Coulthard, Lewin, & Macklin 2005; Could1ard, Macklin, & Kirkby 2002 ). Similar models have been developed for coastal zones. For example, Costanza and Rud1 ( 1998) describe the use of d1e generic STELLA computing language to develop a simulation model of d1e Louisiana coastal wedands. Set up with a spatial scale of 1 km 2 , the model simulates the changing nature of d1e Louisiana coast over 50-100 year timescales as a function of management alternatives and climate variations. A similar approach has been adopted by Dearing and colleagues (2006b) in d1e CEMCOS model of estuarine sediment dynamics, operating at a spatial scale of 2,500 m 2 and driven by wave gauge and tide data. The model will be used to simulate coasdine and bathymetric changes over d1e next decades in d1e face of a rapidly rising sea level, projected changes in wave regime, and alternative coastal management options. The model outputs will be tested against historical sequences of British Admiralty Charts that show the emergence of sandbanks, mudflats, and channel changes over the past 200 years. In these three examples, human agents are brought into play mainly to set future scenarios for hard engineering options or land-use change: d1e models are essentially low-level, rule-based biophysical models. In contrast, d1e inclusion of human agents involves the use of high-level rules (essentially equations or statistical relationships describing group behavior) and often a restricted history. For example, many models simulate regional dynamics (for example, White & Engelen 1997) and urban development (for instance, Benenson & Torrens 2004) over annual to decadal timescales. Li and Gar-On Yeh (2000) use land-use suitability indices as rules to drive a CA model of mban sprawl of Dongguan, on the Pearl River, China, using maps from 1988 and 1993 to validate the model outputs. Wu and Martin (2002 ) model d1e potential growth of London as a function of land -use probabi lity scores defined by proximity to, for example, transport networks. They validate the model for 1991 and 1997. In a review of the limitations of CA modeling, Torrens and O 'Sullivan (2001 ) point to d1e constraints imposed by the simplicity of CA models and how d1is simplicity has to be compromised to accommodate action-at-a-distance processes. They argue that there should be

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Figure 5 • Simulated sediment discharge using the cellular CAESAR model for northern England rivers compared to alluviation records for the past 9,000 years: (a) paleoenvironmental proxy time series for precipitation and vegetation cover that drive the model; (b) CAESAR-modeled output of sediment discharge for four river catchments; and (c) frequency of observed dated alluviation records. The timings of modeled peak sediment discharge correlate well with observed frequency record of alluviation (vertical grey bars). The periods of high sediment discharge tend to be linked to precipitation maxima, whereas the increasing trend in magnitude of sediment discharge toward the present seems to be driven by the declining land (vegetation) cover (Coulthard, Lewin, & Macklin 2005; Coulthard, Macklin, & Kirkby 2002).

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more direct links between rules and theory, and an emphasis on why models should be developed rather than hoJJl. But these problems apart, there are ongoing developments that are Likely to see improved CA-based modeling: through integration with GIS, new macro-level models, and, in ecology, the development of individual-based approaches (for example, Gimblett 2002). With the increased availability of computer grid systems, processing power is unlikely to impose a major constraint. Perhaps most headway toward the development of integrated socioenvironmental models has been gained through the agent-based models (ABMs), particularly among the researchers attempting to model changes in land cover and land use (for instance, Lambin, Geist, & Lepers 2003). Validation has largely come through sequential maps of land cover derived fi-om satellite imagery since the 1960s. ABMs combine a cellular model of a landscape with an agent-based model that introduces decision making (Parker & Berger 2002). The way in which decision makers (agents) and the environment are represented in a model can fall into one of four combinations (Couclelis 2002) depending on whether agents and environment are each analyzed (empirical rules) or designed (theoretical rules). The ideal model for simulating the future, and one that comes closest to the requirements of long-term socioenvironmental models, is a validated model in which both agents and environment are analyzed: that is where both have relatively low-level rules, as in the case of the biophysical models. It is at tllis point, however, tl1at tl1e lack of process tl1eory for decision making, particularly the inclusion of political and institutional decision making, is seen to represent a fundamental challenge to successful modeling (Couclelis 2002; Parker & Berger 2002 ). This lack raises tl1e whole question of how to deal with systems in which tl1e available level of rules is not uniform across the biophysical and the social spheres. In the Chinese example, it is feasible to model tl1e flooding and erosion processes using standard hydrodynamic and sediment equations as low-level rules, but at which level is it feasible to derive rules for socioeconomic processes: the individual furmer, the village, or the coLmty? Figure 6 illustrates the problem more generally witl1 respect to tl1e levels of rules that exist in geophysical, biological, and social systems. Wilson's ( 1998) description of the potential reductionist-holistic lineage of the social sciences (Figure 6, column 3) shows tl1e potential to explain macro-scale phenomena through reductionism, from societies to gene-culture evolution and ultimately human genetics. In contrast, tl1e explanatory lineage for geophysical systems (Figure 6, column 1) shows that there arc already sufficient low-level rules to make rule-based modeling feasible in many cascading landscape systems. For biological systems (Figure 6, column 2), the level of rules for which we have confidence is intermediate between those for society and geophysical systems.

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Figure 6 • Suggested hierarchies of explanatory rules in geophysical, biological, and social systems arranged in three columns from high-level to low-level rules (top to bottom). Here, "low level" refers to one end of a scientific spectrum, where the goal is to understand phenomena through rules, equations, and so on for micro-scale processes based on scientific laws of energy and matter, representing the ultimate goal of reductionism. " High level" refers to the other end of the spectrum, where the goal is to understand phenomena through rules that relate to relatively macro-scale system behavior, representing the goal of holism. The boxes give examples of phenomena studied at each level and the associated academic disciplines. The vertical arrows show the generally accepted span of currently available explanatory rules with dotted lines suggesting possible extensions in the foreseeable future (developed from Wilson 1998 and extended by the author).

Despite recent advances in developing rules for social processes (Ball 2004), it is common for writers to argue that low-level rules for social phenomena are simply unrealistic. As Massey (1999:272) notes, "although humanly meaningful phenomena may not be reducible to the phenomena studied by the natural sciences, they may be emergent from them. There may be real similarities in the abstract pattern of functioning of the inorganic, the biological, and the sociocultural, but in each sphere it is necessary that we specify the actual, particular "mechanisms" through which this functioning occurs." Others take the contrasting view and accuse the social sciences of not having progressed toward the development of rigorously defined theory, where explanation of phenomena is provided by webs of causation across adjacent levels of organization. Wilson (1998) argues that social scientists by and large

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spmn the idea ofhierarchical ordering of knowledge that unites and drives the natural sciences: never do they embed their narratives in the physical realities of human biology and psychology, ·which he argues is the driving force of cultural evolution. Rather they seek to explain social phenomena not through individuals, but through ordering and classifYing social phenomena without making the scientific progress toward a \>veb of causal explanation. As such they remain at the stage of natmal history where hermeneutics, the close analysis and interpretation of data, plays a large part of the method (Wilson 1998). In some ways, these criticisms apply to many paleoenvironmental studies that, while providing a rich source of material that describes environmental change, only infrequently generate tl1eory. We therefore have social sciences tl1at are often ahistorical and seemingly uncoupled from cognitive processes. However, tl1e environmental sciences have strong roots in reductionist science and, as demonstrated above, excellent records of evolution and past changes, but with the exception of climatology they have still failed to find a unifYing framework from which theory and predictions can be developed. In developing simulation models that integrate aspects of Earth and world systems, the task is to find overlapping and complementary units and tools tl1at can be applied to the interface and that can accommodate the relevant spatiotemporal scales of interacting autogenic and endogenous changes. A comparison of the three columns in Figure 6 suggests that the commonality in the level of rules is placed at a fairly high level, perhaps signaling a fundamental barrier to simulating emergent phenomena from interactions of low-level rules. But if our goal is not the complete unity of knowledge but rather the more modest desire to develop workable and useful models, tl1ere may be shortcuts. There are two points to consider. First, the behavior of systems is likely to be even more complex than tl1e relatively simple emergence of phenomena driven by multiple iterations of interacting rules. Stewart ( 1997) argues for punctuations in this process, with emergent features at one level providing the basis for a different set of simple rules to operate and to produce emergent features at a higher scale still. In other words, intermediate emergent forms or "resti ng points" (Stewart 1997) are likely to exist as essential antecedents of tl1e emergent phenomena in question. Cohen and Stewart (1994:417) distinguish bet\veen complex systems that arise from the interaction of simple rules alone ("simplexity") and tl1ose tl1at arise from tl1e interactions of simple systems tl1at change and erase their dependence on initial conditions ("complicity"). In tl1e latter, simple rules produce features that then become the important elements of rules that produce the next level of complexity. Intuitively, socioenvirom11ental systems fall into tl1is category, where different subsystems interact through feedback to

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produce new dynamics that cannot be understood from the underlying rules of any of the subsystems. Thus the presence of rules that while different in detail give rise to the same emergent phenomena suggests that there is little to be gained in necessa1-ily reaching for the lowest-level rules. Cohen and Stewart ( 1994) use the term fungibility to describe these rules, which is analogous to Wolfram's (2002) use of the term universality when dealing with simple CAs, and the concept of"equifinality, commonly used in geomorphology to describe convergent pathways. Cohen and Stewart (1994) argue that the existence of nonunique rules for the same phenomena makes a truly reductionist approach to complexity, and by analogy to CA models, unwarranted: that there may be numerous pathways to the production of larger-scale phenomena dependent on context. From this we might even speculate that d1e precision of rules and the dependence on initial conditions may not be so crucial to the successful simulation of future phenomena as context and external influences. In this respect, it is noteworthy that the cellular phenomenological model SimDelta produces realistic complex behavior without any low-level rules for processes (Guy Engelen, pers. comm. ). Thus, the implication is d1at in future projections it is the accmacy of d1e projected drivers that may be more important d1an the precision of the rules and features that describe d1e landscape. As a consequence, a second point to consider is how we should judge d1e success of a simulation model. Simulation models that can captme nonlinear behavior in observed historical sequences should be able to inform us about how future external forcings may give rise to du·eshold-dependent change, the likely timescales over which change may evolve and, indeed, which of the alternative actions under our control should be avoided or selected (Dearing et al. 2006c). Thus, integrated, CA-based socioenvironmental models may have less predictive value in terms ofthe precision and accuracy ofspecific phenomena over short timescales, but d1ey potentially have great value to strategic decision making and scoping alternative scenarios in the longer term: we essentially trade quantitative accuracy and precision for realism. Since we currently have so little insight into fi.1ture socioenvironmental change, any models d1at demonstrate an ability to capture realistic nonlinear behavior should be highly valued. Om current knowledge and theory do not allow us to define with any certainty d1e optimum structure of the proposed socioenvironmental models. We probably have to recognize the importance of trial -and -error approaches, particularly in selecting tl1e appropriate rule level or, as illuminated in the Chinese case study, the appropriate spatial and timescales required to evolve the emergent features that we observe today. When modeling soil erosion on a hill slope, we may intuitively choose rules pertaining to particles rather d1an molecules, but tl1e truth is tl1at "Vve do not really know where the "resting

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points" are until we experiment with simulation models. Similarly we can only debate the relevant time line (Ming or Mao? ) out ofwhich has emerged the highly sensitive modern landscape around Lake Erhai. Model development through experimentation at different process levels and spatiotemporal scales can be expected to significantly advance theory about socioenvironmental systems. We are entering a phase of simulation-model development, \vhere our highest level of certainty lies in the parallel histories that we can construct. The design of new simulation-modeling research programs should acknmvledge this wealtl1 of information, for it is our heritage that holds the key to developing new theory about socioenvironmental change.

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Understanding local and regional changes in integrated Earth and world systems demands consideration of nonlinear dynamics and complexity theory. Sets of parallel histories derived from reconstructed biophysical records, instrument data, and documents provide a sound basis for studying the longterm dynamics of past socioenvironmental systems. Making the shift from studies of our environmental heritage to gaining foresight into future socioenvironmental states requires a methodological framework in which mathematical models simulate emergent phenomena, which are in turn tested by comparisons with parallel histories. Spatially explicit, cellular automata-type models show much promise in this respect, allowing the emergence of macro-scale phenomena through tl1e continuous interaction of rules at lower levels. Limitations to current CA/ agent-based models include poorly understood rules for social systems, and short timescales for validation. However, the nature of emergence may mean tl1at low-level rules are not always required. Model success should be seen in terms of tl1e correct simulation of observable nonlinear behavior. In generating alternative futures, such modeled system behavior will often be more important for policy formulation than the accuracy and precision of spatiotemporal details. Experimentation with simulation models is essential for understanding modeling needs. In general, there is a paucity of tl1eory about how socioenvironmental systems are affected by different combinations of management decisions, internal organization, and external forcings. Integrated socioenvironmental simulation models may not only provide decision-support tools for strategic management policies but also contribute to developing tl1eory about the functioning of these systems.

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CHAPTER 4

World-Systems as Complex Human Ecosystems z

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Reflecting on the impressive breadth of perspective that has been applied to the study of world-systems, Straussfogel (2000:169 ) recently observed, "Perhaps a little ironically, tl1e only way world-systems have not been much considered is as a system." She proceeds to advocate "dissipative structures" theory (Prigogine & Stengers 1984) and tl1e revolutionary systems clunking that it engenders for "open" natural systems including world-systems. From tl1is perspective, the relationship between world -systems and tl1e environ ment is forced to center stage: "Seen as a multileveled complex system exhibiting tl1e properties of a dissipative structure, tl1e [world-] system-environment relationship looms as crucial" (Straussfogel 2000:175). This chapter takes up tl1e important challenge of furthering the integration of world -systems theory with enviro1m1ental and complex systems science. World-systems can be productively conceived as complex systems: complex human ecosystems. Complex systems are a general class of phenomena found ubiquitously in nature. Willie defiJutions vary, complex systems can be described as open, dissipative structures that self-orgatuze into forms that are multi-scaled and hierarchical, tl1at exhibit emergent properties, tl1at make use of information at many scales from genes to culture, and that exhibit complex dynamics of pulse and collapse, discontinuous change or "surprise," and nonlinearity, leading to multiple stable states. World-systems, comprising core, semiperiphery, and periphery, are by definition multi-scaled and hierarchical structures. Conceptualized as "complex human ecosystems" (Abel & Stepp 2003), world-systems are material and energetic self-orgaJuzing systems that are multiple-scaled in space and bounded in time, exhibiting complex dynamics that includes pulse, collapse, cycle, and chaos. As ecosystems, they are spatial entities that capture and use energy 56

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and materials, structured by information from many scales. As complex systems they are self-organizing phenomena with emergent properties. As "human ecosystems," they are dominated by the material assets, social organization, and cultural models at their disposal. Since its conception (Wallerstein 1974), the world-system concept has inspired research and generated debate. Wallerstein's original model was of a multi-state system of capitalist countries bounded in space and time, with a division oflabor and trade relations that favored a core of one or several nations over a surrounding periphery of other nations. Since that time there have been efforts to extend d1e model back in time to precapitalist social formations (Abu -Lughod 1989; Chase-Dunn & Hall 1995, 1997; Frank & Gills 1992). There has been interest in redefining its boundaries politically (Modelski 1987), symbolically (trade in luxury goods) (Schneider 1977), and otherwise. Some have sought to compare and possibly combine it with the concept of "civilization " (Wilkinson 1995). This chapter covers such definitional debates and proposes a complex human ecosystems definition ofworld-systems. This definition of world-systems has implications for understanding sociocultural cycles as well as the larger process of cultural evolution, and this chapter explores these implications.

Ecosystems as Complex Systems Pickett and Cadenasso (2002:2), following Odum (1959), following Tansley ( 1935), define an ecosystem very flexibly as "any size so long as organisms, physical environment, and interactions can exist within it. Given this . . . ecosystems can be as small as a patch of soil supporting plants and microbes; or as large as rl1e entire biosphere of the Earth. However, all instances of ecosystems have an explicit spatial extent. The extent must be specified and bOLmded ." They proceed to fully explore the ecosystem as a concept, model, and metaphor. Of special interest for my discussion at this point is the "spatial" feature of dus definition. An ecosystem boundary, at whatever size deternuned by the analyst, is not placed around an animal, plant, or human institution such as government or economy. An ecosystem, in "all instances," is an explicidy spatial entity, a physical space on Earth that encompasses interacting biotic and abiotic complexes, a location "as small as a patch of soil . .. or as large as the entire biosphere." T here is a simple reason why the ecosystem is a spatial concept. Ecosystems are open energetic systems rl1at exist on Eard1 because energy flows rl1rough d1em, energy fi·om lunar gravity, from Eard1 deep heat, and especially from the sun. When these energies reach the Earth's surface rl1ey interact with living

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organisms and nonliving substrates, self-organizing into the structmes and processes of an ecosystem. Ecosystems are thus spatial entities, constructed by the convergence of energies at or near the Earth's surface. Simon Levin (1998:431) characterizes ecosystems as "prototypical examples of complex adaptive systems." Self-organization divides natural systems into multiple temporal and spatial scales. A product of maximizing energy dissipation, natme is conceived to be discontinuous across scales, forming lumps or wholes in nested hierarchies (Holling, Gunderson, & Peterson 2002:77-88). Ecosystems are nested within the biosphere, while simultaneously composed of nested scales selected by biological, chemical, and physical processes. Natural, open, self-organizing ecosystems are not static in time but exhibit fluctuations, both regular and unpredictable. Ecosystems are thought to be sometimes more and sometimes less resilient to perturbations, and for reasons that are difficult to predict. Fluctuations from small or large scales, both internal and external to the ecosystem, can lead to transformations. The pulsing or fluctuations of ecosystems is now felt to be a common property of complex systems, most thoroughly explored as an "adaptive cycle" by Holling (1987; cf. Figure 8). Ecosystems, like other complex systems, are thus multi-scaled, hierarchical, selt:organizing systems that exhibit fluctuations in both time and space.

Complex Human Ecosystems A "human ecosystem" is depicted with a systems diagram in Figure 1 (Abel 2003; Abel & Stepp 2003 ).1 The sun is the most important energy source for ecosystems, delivering gravitational and solar energy and creating weather, wind, rain, and seasonal fluctuations, although lunar gravity (tide) and Earth deep heat (uplift) are other essential somces (see the circle on the left) ( Od um 1996). Gradients of sunlight and fluctuating patterns of wind and rain have had defining impacts, it now appears, on the pulsing growth and collapse of human ecosystems, including world-systems (de Me nocal 2001; Gill 2000; Weiss & Bradley 2001 ). These impacts will be discussed below along with other temporal dynamics of \ovorld -systems. Concentrations (of energy, materials, structure, and information ) within a human ecosystem include natural resomces and sociocultmal storages ("storage" tanks, Figme 1 ). Natural resources in Earth systems are commonly partitioned into categories of"renewable" (sun, tide, uplift), "slow-renewable" (timber, topsoil, groundwater), and "nonrenewable" (coal, oil, natural gas, metals) resources. This categorization scheme is based on the turnover time

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Figure 1 • Human ecosystem . A human ecosystem is spatially defined to include energy inputs, a physical substrate ("a patch of soil"), natural resource storages ("storage" tanks), and a human sociocultural system. A sociocultural system is a general term that applies to aggregates of humans at any scale, from foragers to chiefdoms, archaic states, modern states, and world-systems. The ecosystem context of the sociocultural system is represented in highly aggregated form to the left in the diagram. Important sociocultural storages are shown and discussed in the text

relative to human life spans. For example, coal or oil, while renewable on the timescale of geological processes, are nonrenewable at the scale of people or even civili zations. A convincing model of a sociocultural system should include "storages" of material assets, social structure, cultural models, and language, as well as the interactions betw'een these components, the natural environment, and the people that continuously produce and renegotiate their forms (Abel 2003). These components al·ways co-occur, with none occurring before another. A point to emphasize is that no storages are static-that is, not population, technologies, assets, topsoil, groundwater, social structure, or any other such factors. Even when a system appears to be changing very little, its storages are depreciating and must be replenished. This fundamental principle of nature is called the Second Law ofThermodynamics, or "Time's Arrow" (Prigogine &

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Figure 2 • Energy t ransformation hierarchy (adapted from Odum 1996:23). (a) Spatial view of units and territories; (b) energy network including transformation and feedback; (c) aggregation of energy networks into an energy chain; (d) bar graph of energy f lows for the levels in an energy hierarchy. It is a principle of systems science (Odum 1996) that open systems, such as ecosystems, are non-equilibrium thermodynamic systems t hat self-organize into energy transformation hierarchies. Figure 2 depicts a hierarchy from four different perspectives. Figure 2b shows a typical hierarchy that could be an ecosystem with plant producers on the left and animal consumers on t he right, concentrating food in a food web that is capped by one or several top carn ivores. The energy that moves through that web is highlighted in the Figure 2d bar graph, with energy amounts shrinking as they move through t he web.

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Stengers 1984). In Figure 1, both the sociocultural system configuration and the environmental inputs are dynamic, constantly forming and reforming in the energy flux of an open natural system. Both culture and nature are highly dynamic, neither being merely the static backdrop for the other. Complex human ecosystems can be redrawn in a form tl1at displays tl1e structural hierarchy within. Figure 2 depicts Odum's hierarchy of energy transformations, ubiquitous in self-organizing complex systems, illustrating Odum's (1996:16) proposed Fiftl1 Law of Thermodynamics. An ecosystem is an obvious example, in which solar energy is converted to plant and animal biomass in hierarchical food webs, depicted in Figure 2b. At each step in a hierarchy, energy is lost as concentrations are made into species witl1 "emergent" properties (complex proteins, mobility, landscape builders). Figure 2c is an aggregated diagram ofFigure 2b, which emphasizes the energy transformations and reduces and consolidates the complexity into a visually simpler form. Figure 1 can be redrawn, as in Figure 2b-c, by replacing the single "social structure" storage with an energy transformation hierarchy (Abel 2003 ). This diagramming convention can be applied to any human ecosystem and will be used in the world-systems diagram below (Figure 5 ).

World-Systems in Space With tlus conceptual background, world-systems will now be discussed as complex human ecosystems, bounded in space and time. As far as we know, our universe is one single universe. Energy impinges on the Earth from far reaches and near. One biosphere, not more, envelops our globe. There are no boundaries in nature. Yet there are discontinuities. It is argued that selforgallization leads to gradients (Wicken 1987), that nature forms lumps or wholes in nested hierarchies, as was just desoibed (see also Holling, Gunderson, & Peterson 2002:77- 88). In tl1eory, a scientist can draw a boundary around anything he or she wants to study. In practice, however, it is more convenient to take advantage of the discontinuities in nature. Physiologists do not normally divide a person in halfbut rather make use of the (permeable) natural boundary of our skin. Ecosystem scientists also seek discontinuities in defining a unit of study. One such common Ltnit is a watershed. Within a watershed there are countless patl1ways of energy and material flows. Certainly animals and seeds cross watershed boundaries, but because so much physical, chemical, and biological work in ecosystems is done by rainfall there exists a gradient or discontinuity along the edge of natural drainage, that is, along the watershed "boundary." Anotl1er example is an island ecosystem, which might be bounded by its

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Figure 3 • Boundaries of early modern world-systems. Two options for boundaries around an

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early modern world-system. Note that these two drawings show only sources and storages and

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shoreline but is more logically defined to include the near-shore production of reefs or estuaries, down to d1e effective limits of sunlight. The biosphere as a whole is the largest scale for life on Earth. But nested within it is a hierarchy of self-organizing systems, from ecosystems to chemical cycles. A number of researchers have attempted to define the boundaries of worldsystems. Christopher Chase-Dunn and Thomas Hall have summarized and grouped d1e different conceptualizations of world-system boundaries into four categories (Chase-Dutm & Hall1995, 1998). Some argue that trade in prestige goods is d1e largest important interaction network for world-systems and should therefore constitute its spatial limit (Schneider 1977). Chase-Dum1 and Hall label this model "prestige goods exchange network (PGN)." Others believe that military alliances among a group of states in regions defines the world system (Wilkinson 1987), what Chase- Dunn and Hall call "political/military interaction net'Norks (PMNs)." The most inclusive world-system boundary they define is a social network, called the "information exchange net\vork (IN )." The most restricted world-systems boundary, which they call the "bulk goods exchange network (BGN)," coincides with Wallerstein's original formulation for worldsystems, which focuses on trade in primary commodities. A complex human ecosystem model of world-systems would focus on gradients in the flows of essential energies, natural resources, domesticated foods, or minerals, roughly equivalent to the BGN model. These are the necessary material foundations of any hLm1an ecosystem and sociocultural system within it. Once included, dlls ecosystem scale contains the necessary and sufficient

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Figure 4 • Boundaries of contemporary world-systems. Distinguishing Figure 4 from Figure 3 is

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the addition ot "Fossil Fuel" sources and storages. Fossil tuels are such an important addition to

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the provisioning of contemporary world-systems that they deserve special distinction.

ingredients for self-organization of the multi-scaled world-system structure. These considerations support Wallerstein's formulation of the BGN model because of its spatial and material orientation, which can productively articulate with ecosystems and complex systems theory. Furthermore, this design compensates for an omission in the typologies of cultural evolution in anthropology, viz. a category for extra-state social formations, a level more inclusive and qualitatively different than archaic states or empires. Figure 3 depicts two models of an early modern world-system. The "Golden Age" Dutch world-system of the seventeenth century is an example (Wallerstein 1974). In Figure 3a, a boundary is drawn around Holland. Within that boundary, important storages supporting the human sociocultural system include surface and ground water, topsoil, peat, domesticated food production, some timber, and mining. However, the Golden Age Dutch world-system depended on timber from Scandinavia, grain from the European heartland, and other key inputs such as salt from the southern Caribbean. From a human ecosystems perspective, the boundary of the Dutch world -system is tlms better drawn around tl10se bulk-goods-producing regions as peripheries, feeding natural resources to tl1e Holland core. Figure 3b d1erefore draws d1e boundary just wide enough to reduce tl1e flows of essential goods across its border by expanding it to include the resource-producing regions. Figure 4 is a model ofcontemporary world-systems tl1at is similar to Figure 3. Figure 4a includes a "too small" world-system boundary with inputs of primary commodities of domesticated foods, timber, metals, and fossil fuels.

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Figure 5 • A "Cold War" worldsystem with a U.S. core. A modern capitalist worl d-system of nations defined by bulk-goods trade unequally forming the core, which

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Figure 4b represents a more inclusive boundary. This design has implications for defining twentieth-century world-systems. By this account, the last century would have begun with perhaps three world -systems, a dominant Emopeancentered system,a U.S.-centered system, and a Japan -centered system. The Cold War world witnessed the expansion of a Soviet-centered system and decline of the Japan-centered system (Figure 5 depicts the U .S.-centered system). Note also that countries or regions may at times fall outside any world-system, as did China and Indonesia after the collapse of the Japan system and the contraction of the European system after World War II. Figure 5 is a world-system conceived spatially and located in time. It is a multinational division of labor organized by trade flows. Note especially that each nation is represented in human ecosystem terms, as a spatial entity constructed "from the ground up," with energy somces and local storages of natural resources, all supporting a sociocultural hierarchy (compare to Figure 2c). The nations are then joined together by trade flows into a world-system. The innovation of the world -system is that it creates a larger spatial scale and d1lls a greater area for energy convergence. By this conceptualization, today there is a single hegemonic U.S. -E. U .Japan world -system, d1ough China may be in the center of an emergent new

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Recycle

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Figure 6 • Pulsing sociocultural systems. Coupled producers-consumers with recycling can be a pulsing organization. The storages have different spatial and temporal scales (Odum & Pinkerton

1955).

system. Yet considering the slow growth of global energies, the world future more likely holds for us decomposition of the existing world -system, the end of a "secular cycle," rather than composition of new systems (Abel2000:414428). This is explained in the next section.

World-Systems in Time: Storages and Pulsing In dissipative structures theory, when an energy gradient exists between a storage and a sink, or between a source and a sink, self-organization occurs that has the effect of hastening the dissipation of energy (Prigogine & Stengers 1984). The process of self-organization is inherent in the thermodynamics of inorganic and organic matter and energy. Energy dissipation is revealed to be a highly creative process. Self-organization often leads to pulsi ng patterns, the building of energetic storages followed by d1eir autocatalytic consumption and dissipation, depicted in Figures 6-8 (Odum & Pinkerton 1955; Holling 1987). In Figure 6, the system of multi-scaled self-organization is a pulsing system that produces the cycle in Figure 7. Examples include fire-controlled ecosystems, locust outbreaks, or cross-catalytic chemical reactions. It is expected that this pulsing pattern would also be observed wirl1 storages used by humans. It is well known d1at small farmers who use slash-and-burn techniques occupy an area only

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Figure 7 • Pulsing. Typical cycle in which pulsing of consumer assets alternates with productive restoration of resources. Four stages are defined to aid discussion (from Odum and Odum

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long enough to consume the storages of nutrients; then they move on. In more complex human systems such as chiefdoms or archaic states, pulse and collapse have been observed, as in ancient Greece (Runnels 1995), the Maya of Yucatan (Culbert 1988), and the Roman Empire (Perlin 1991). In the ·world systems literature, there is growing interest in this pulsing and collapsing of sociocultural systems and their human ecosystems at different scales (Bosworth 1995; Chase-Dunn & Hall 1998; Frank 1995). So-called civilizations such as the Andean or the Chinese are better conceived as systems repeatedly pulsing and collapsing in space and time (Marcus 1998; Wallerstein 1995). Perhaps the best known pulsing and cycling model today is the "Adaptive Cycle" proposed by Holling (1987), a general pattern with four phases: exploitation, conservation, crisis/release, and reorganization. Odum's pulsing model fits this pattern (Odum & Odum 2001 ), as do other cycling models (Figure 8 ). In complex human ecosystems, cycles are nested, as in Figure 9. Figure 9 gives only an indication of the complex pattern of nested scales of pulse and collapse that exist in open systems in nature. Not surprisingly, the history and prehistory of humans and human ecosystems has been complex, filled wid1 pulse and collapse ofwhole systems or parts of d1em. For world -systems, collapse does not mean the disappearance of peoples or nations but rad1er the decomposition of core-periphery bulk trade networks and the return to single state-scale organization or, in d1e peripheries especially, decomposition into even smallerscaled social formations resembling chiefdoms, located 'vvithin the political shells of nation states (as today in Somalia, d1e Ivory Coast, Burw1di, and so on).

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Figure 8 • Cycles in complex systems. The "Adaptive Cycle" has been extensively discussed and elaborated (Gunderson & Holling 2002 ; Gunderson, Holling, & light 1995). Odum has emphasized a similar model of growth, transition, descent, and low energy restoration, a design which he contends maximizes self-reinforcing energy flows in many systems (Odum & O dum 2001; Odum & Pinkerton 1995). His model does not have the resolution of detail into important mechanisms of release and reorganization that Holling's does. Salthe 's (2003) model of canonical stages of infodynamics is another cycling model, as is the High Gain/Low Gain model of Tainter and colleagues (2003).

Implications for World-Systems Theory World-systems theory thus reconceived has implications for some unsettled issues. Two of particular interest to other world -systems tl1eorists are explored below, suggesting both tl1e promise and the novelty of viewing world -systems as complex human ecosystems. Cycles in Sociocultural Systems Cycles have captured tl1e attention of world -systems research in recent years. Here I consider three often-studied cycle types. «Kondratieff cycles" (K-waves) have been much discussed (Frank 1995; Straussfogel2000; Thompson 2000).

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Figure 9 • Pulsing at multiple scales of space and time. Sketch showing the pulsing for three scales of time and space. Larger scales have sharper pulses and longer interpulse periods. Many nested cycles are conceivable for the biosphere (from Odum and Odum 2001 :82, reprinted with permission).

As Turchin and Hall (2003:39) explain: "The basic dynamic is that a new technology allows economic expansion. Eventually the market saturates, and competition increases, and the expansion slows until another cycle, based on yet another new or renewed technology, develops." In terms of Figure I, a new teclmology is equivalent to expanding the storage of "Assets and Technologies,'' which would recmsively amplifY the capture of more natural resources, resulting in "economic expansion." In addition, because all sociocultural storages are linked, the other storages will grow, including population, social structure (division of labor), cultural models, and even language (that is, adding new vocabulary, or- ifthe growth is sustained enough for the sociocultural system to expand its reach spatially-expanding the language hegemony, as English has expanded its reach and varieties today2).

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It does not suffice to explain the contraction ofa K-wave, however, in terms of "the market sattu·ates, and competition increases." In a complex human ecosystem there are real physical limits that always restrain growth, here represented by limits to nonrenewable resources (oil, coal, metals), but also to slow-renewables such as timber or groundwater, or fi.tll renewables such as agricultural produce. Furthermore, within the interconnected sociocultw-al system, real economic growth evenmally leads to growth of all storages (as just explained)-population growth, division of labor, cultw-al models- which also draw on resources and which hasten the restricting effect of physical resource limits. Resource limits from any of many scales, plus the burden of maintenance of all interrelated cultmal storages, including the new division of labor, new cultmal models, and so on, togerl1er contribute to d1e decline phase of the K-wave . A special consideration for recent cycles is rl1at economic growrl1 dLU·ing the last 150 years has been riding the fossil fuel wave, which has clouded our collective view of natural limits (and fueled a global population explosion) by providing energy for real growth in all sectors. This has given us the false impression that economic expansion can occur whenever technological innovations appear. From the longer history of technological innovations, we know this to be untrue. The "new technology" rl1at starts a cycle must appear at a time when necessary storages are available from many spatial and temporal scales of humanity and d1e environment, including all the necessary natural resources plus an appropriate division oflabor, possessing rl1e necessary cultural models and language skills. "Hegemonic cycles" are the century-long cycles "in which one state in a core dominates a world-system d1rough economic and political power, typicaJiy without overt coercion" (Turchin & Hall 2003:39). A hegemonic cycle, rl1erefore, refers to the expansion and conn·action of an explicidy bounded spatial entity (a world -system). This cycle, however, can again be explained wid1 reference to resource limits. First, rl1e logic ofspatial expansion is understandable as d1e means to capture untapped resource storages in virgin forests, topsoil, and mineral deposits. This leads to sociocultural system expansion as a whole, with its many requirements for maintenance. As resource storages are consumed unsustainably, especially d1e slow-renewables timber and topsoil wid1 turnover times of 50- 200 years, and rl1e maintenance of world -system organization remains high, rl1e system reaches a point of instability and contracts. "Secular cycles," rl1at is, "periodic waves of state breakdmvn accompanied by oscillations in population numbers" (Turchin & Hall 2003:39 ), by this account are rl1e same phenomenon. In other words, by explaining hegemonic cycles human-ecologically instead of as the result of "power" fluctuations, I am proposing a model of macro-scale dynamics for sociocultural systems.

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Where this explanation differs from many others is in its account of a highly dynamic and pulsing environment, a complex intercmmected human presence often stressed by its own weight of numbers, and fluctuating boundaries of the human ecosystem and its associated resources. Because sociocultural systems always occur within human ecosystems, space is a fundamental factor in understanding aJI components and their dynamics in time. Archeological and ethnographic evidence tells us that spatial fluctuation is the rule, not the exception for sociocultural systems. Only with the relatively recent advent of fixed nation-state boLmdaries have human ecosystem boundaries ever been stable for long. And that stability was perhaps a short interlude, for worldsystems theory \vould contend that actual human ecosystem boundaries have become both larger-than-states and fluctuating . Evolution in Sociocultural Systems

This complex human ecosystems model has many implications for the long tradition of cultural evolutionary theory in anthropology (Carneiro 1970; Fla1mery 1972; Harris 1977; Jolmson & Earle 1987; Morgan 1877; Service 1975;Spencer 1860; Steward 1955; White 1959), which has recently generated much interest among world-systems researchers (Chase-Dunn & Hall 1998; Sanderson 1990). I will raise only two issues regarding the subject that can illuminate my definition of complex human ecosystems (see Abel 1998 and Abel2000:341-428 for further discussion). First, in Figure 1, we can see that the source of culture change is not restricted to single «prime movers" such as «population pressure" or its predecessor «technological progress." In fuct, characterizing any but the earliest cultural evolution theory as linear or driven by «prime movers" is an over-simplification ofwhatwas already recognized in its day as a highly systemic process (Carneiro 1970; Flatmery 1972; Harris 1977). More recent accounts from anthropology (for instance, Johnson & Earle 1987) and world-systems (Chase-Dunn & Hall 1998; Sanderson 1990) have become more overtly systematic. For example, Chase-Dunn and Hall's dynamic «iteration model" accounts for many interrelated variables in the process of cultural evolution: tedmological change, population growth, intensification, environmental degradation, population pressure, emigration, circumscription, conflict, and hierarchy formati on. Cultural evolution conceived in terms of the complex human ecosystems model is an emphatically systematic accoLUlt. Change in open self-organizing systems is expected, incessant, and directional, owing to the teleomatics ofenergy dissipation (Prigogine & Stengers 1984 ). A sociocultural system is conceived as a self-organizing system of amplification, constraint, and pulsing dynamics with

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many shifting limiting factors within ecosystems and within itself (population density being only one). For instance, sociocultural complexification may be simultaneously pushed (for example, by population pressure), pulled (for instance, by agricultural innovation ), squeezed (for example, by approaching water limits, topsoil depletion, spatial contraction due to warfare, and so on), collapsed (for instance, by geologic pulses such as volcanoes, weather pulses such as large-scale hurricanes, climate change, loss of resilience, and so forth), in more "vays than I can list. Chase-Dunn and Hall's ''iterative" model is a better approximation of this, although it emphasizes the "push" of population pressure and offers only an unelaborated environment with incomplete dynamics and theorizing of its own. Wid1in d1e material constraints of a dynamic environment and model of production should be situated the human symbolic systems of cultural models, which have structures and dynamics of their own. Intentionality and agency can be understood to self-organize wid1 a highly dynamic human and extrahuman environment. This complex nexus ofhuman ecosystem causality is what is represented by a simplifYing systems diagram such as the one in Figure 1. Second, there has been much discussion in the world-systems literatme about extending the concept back in time to include precapitalist social formations that anthropologists have called bands, tribes, chiefdoms, and archaic states (Harris 1977; Johnson & Earle 1987). The point has been made, for example, that capital accumulation, a determinant characteristic of the modern world -system, has precapitalist roots in early states (Ekholm & Friedman 1982), and has perhaps "alJIJays been a driving force of world development" (Gills 1995:137). I would prefer to see this initiative turned on its head. Considered in terms of d1e human ecosystems model (Figure 1), the autocatalytic structure of capitalist accumulation is unsurprisingly pervasive in human social formations, as it is in nature generally. Rather d1an applying Wallerstein's world-systems model, which is a useful referent to specific capitalist multistate entities, back in time to all social formations, I would argue for reserving that term as it is, and adopting a more general term, that is, complex human ecosystems, which encodes a general model of structure, function, and complex dynamics.

Conclusions World-systems d1eory can be enriched by a close relationship with ecosystems and complex systems d1eory more generally. The history and prehistory of humans and human ecosystems take on a radically different appearance when conceived in terms of systems of energy and d1eir complex transformations.

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Permanence is replaced by flow, fluctuation, and cycling. Space becomes a dynamic and critical dependent variable. Rather than extend the concept of world -systems to encompass "kin based, foragers, local groups, chiefdoms, or archaic states (incl uding empires), I argue instead that it is more useful to maintain these distinct terms. The "world -system, concept has a place in this typology of social formations. It has served well to uncloak nationalist ideologies an d reveal the system connections between nations that have real and often oppressive effects . To call everything a world-system is to d ilute the concept of its analytical strength. I do not believe that my world-systems model is more "correct, than that of the prehistorians or civilizationists. Intriguing properties of "cycling,, inequality, hierarchy, and spatial scales should be expected and can be found in social formations generally. However, general processes deserve a general name, such as human ecosystems. Calling them all world-systems subtracts from the usefulness of the concept, which is its final measure of success. How does this complex human ecosystems model differ from other models of cultural evolution or world-system formation? It emphasizes that the "environment, is a "moving target,, not a permanent stage for the human play. It defines world-syste ms in space and time. It expects to find pulse and collapse, and at multiple temporal and spatial scales. And it locates world-systems in a natural world, a dynamic open system with material and energetic limits that must be considered in any account of our history or future. Notes l. T his paper applies many of the conventions developed by H . T. Odum to understand and depict ecosystems and complex systems. The work of H. T. Odum spanned systems of all types. In forty years of active research, he and his brother E. P. Odum helped define the modern field of ecology. In the last fifteen years, his ·work was rediscovered by complex systems scientists (for example, Depew & Weber 1995; Van de Vijver, Salthe, & Delpos 1998). What makes it complex systems science? In brief: much of his research focused on the self-organjzation of natural, open, thermodynamic systems that creatively build themselves and dissipate energy (Odum 1983; Odum 1988; Odum 1995; Odum & Pinkerton 1955 ), systems sometimes called "dissipative structures" (Prigogine & Stengers 1984 ). Other complex systems domains of his work are ( 1) autocatalytic, nonlinear dynamics, (2) pulsing or chaotic systems ( Odum & Pinkerton 1955), (3) hierarchy (Odum & Odum 200 1), and (4) scale (Hall 1995). In recent years this work directly led him and colleagues to the creation of a form of ecological economics called "emergy" accounting (Odum 1996;

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Odum, Odum, & Brown 1998 ). Emergy accounting has been used to evaluate sustainability (Odum 1994), international trade equity (Odum & Arding 1991 ), and global forecasting (Odum & Odum 2001 ). 2. With the most dynamic economy and often the largest military, the hegemon also disseminates its language, culture, and economy as "global" standards (Grimes

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CHAPTER 5

l essons from Population Ecology for WorldSystems Analyses of long-Distance Synchrony

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occupit:d by tht: nitt:d tatt:s and bt:fort: it Britain. This particular shift of the locus of production took place ovt:r a number of years, but thrt:sholds of awareness occur quite uddenl}'· Recent reports in d1e media indicate d1e nantre of such rapid change. All the fol lowing headlines appeared during a few weeks in pril 2005 . Young street children in Chad recruited into lslamist groups

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been a determinant f:1ctor at some times and places, but not at others? Can this knowledge be applied to design more climate-resi lient societies? Or can we conclude that climate always plays a subordinate role in societal de clopment and that there is no need to worry about global warming or coolingl This chapter discusses the interactions between climate and societies in two regions in Africa during the last millennium: su tropical outhern Africa and intertropical eastern Africa. This type of analysis is now possi ble, thanks to the detailed regional d im , te eries and the archeological and historical data available for bod1 regions.

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Analogously, rise and full works somewhat difrerently in interchiefdom systems becau e the institutions that facilitate the extraction of resources from distant groups arc less fldly developed in chiefdom systems. David G. Anderson (1994) has examined the rise and full ofMi sissippian chiefdoms in the Sa annah R.i er valley. This cyclical proces begins with a chiefly polity extending control over adjacent chiefdoms and establishing a two-tiered hierarchy ofadministration. At a later point, these regionally centralized chiefly polities disintegrate back toward a y rem of smaller and le hierarchica l p litie . hiefs h, ve relied more on hierarchical control of kinship relations, 1itual, and imporrs ofpresrige goods rhan have the mler ofrme srares. These chiefly techniques of power are all highl}' dependent on normative integration and ideological consensus. rates developed specialized organizations for extracting resources that chiefaoms lacked: standing armies and bureaucracies. tares and empires in tributary ' arid-systems were more dependent on the projection of armed force over great distances than modern hegemonic core stares have been. The development o commodity production and mechanisms of financial control, as well as further development of bureaucratic ad mini n-ative techn iques, has allowed modern hegemons to extract re ources fi·om furaway places with much less overhead cost. T he development of new techniques of exerting power h:1s m:1de coreperiphery rdarions ever more important for competition among core powers and has altered d1e way in which the rise-and -full process works in other respects. Chase-Dunn and Hall ( 1997:Chapter 6 ; see also 2000, 2002) ha e argued that population growth in interaction with the environment and changes in productive teclmology and social structure produce social transformations that are marked by cycles and periodic jumps. This is because the parameters of each world-system oscillate owing both to internal instabilities and environmental fluctuations. Occasionally, on an economic upswing, people solve systemic problems in a new way that allows for substantial expansion . We want to explain such expansions, evolutionary changes, and collapses in terms of systemic logic. That is the point of comparing world -systems. The mu lti -scalar regional method of bounding world -system as ne. ted ime1-action networks o utlined above is complementary ro a multi -scalar temporal ana ly is of the kind ugge ted b)' Fernand Braude!. Temporal depth , the tougue dttnfe, needs to be combined with analyses of short-run and middlerun processe to allO\ us to fully lJnderstand social change. A ke}' example of this is Jared Diamond's (1997) sn1dy of the original distribution of zoological and botanical re ources. The geographical disnibution of those species that could be easily and profitably domesticated explains a significant parr of the vari:1tion regarding which world -systems were able to expand and incorpor:1te

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pan dming the early part of the third millennium B. C.E. This interpretation is upported by new evidence from sciences such as ecology and metallurgy. Recent developments in su·ontium isotope anal sis of ceth and bone arc producing new compel ling evidence of the movement of individuals in later prehistory (Ezzo, Johnson, & P1ice 1997; Grupe et al. 1997; Price, Grupe, & chroter 1998; Montgomery, Budd , & Evans 2000; Price, Manzanilla, & Middleton 2000). Also, physical anthropological evidence testifies to a change of population in some regions, such as Denmark and Poland in the third millennium B.C. E. (Dzicdu zycka -Machnik & Machnik 1990; Petersen 1993). population taller than previous eolithic peoples enters the scene and accountl for a general rise in p pulation fi-om d1e late durd millen11ium onward. In Denmark, d1e average height of males increases by 7 em fi·om d1e Megalid1ic pe1iod of d1e late fourd1 mille111Ulll11 to d1e early Bronze Age of the late third nullemuum ll.C.E . A econd area of new research concerns the ecological and economic transformations taking place in the steppe and torest steppe regions. Here recent paleobotanical research and Cl4-datings of buried soils under barrows have revealed the early formation of grasslands and steppe environments, and their systematic exploitation (Anthony 1998; Kremenetski 2003 ; Shislina 2000, 2003 ). During d1e d1ird millennium B.C.E., d1e Yamna u·ibal groups (28002350 B.CE.) pr:1cticed smJIJ-scak pastoral herding, moving loCJ!Iy ben een summer and winter pastures, u ing four-' heeled vehicles. Rich gras lands and higher humidity than today Sl1pported this economic ransformation and its widespread geographical expansion, even into the Ba lkans and the Carpathians :md Hungary, but also toward the east ( Ecsedy 1994; Kalicz 1998; Kuzmina 2002 ). Figure l illustrates the two major cultural complexes in the early thirdmillennium expansion of pa toral furmers in the western steppe and tempemte Europe: the Yamna group around the Black ea, and the Corded Ware/Battle Axe and Single Gmve Cultures in cenu·al and nord1ern Europe. This was a pioneering phase ofexpansion. Wooded areas were still preserved in the river valleys as evidenced in burials and wagon (Shislina 200 l :35 7fl). The Catacomb Culture groups (2500- 1900 B. C..E.) saw the fi.Jrther development of a pastora l economy based on sedentary settlements and long-distance herding and trade. It corresponded to the formation of a more hierarchical , metalproducing soc iety with a wide distribution also toward the eastern steppe . Periodical ecological su·ess and soil destruction , caused by overgrazing, is evidenced. Seasonal migrations and herd ing now extended across the whole ecological zone ( hislina 2001 :259f) . Although one can hardly generalize from these disco cries in d1c Kalrn k steppe , the y suggest a widespread de elopment when we consider d1e similarity of d1e archeologi ·a] record througho ut the steppe region. 1 It implies that, by the beginning of the second millennium

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pastoraJ economies were widespread in the Pontic zone (Anthony 1998). The osteological evidence confirms that cattle were dominant (more than 50 percent), especially big-horned cattle, followed b)' horse and heep. heepherding was linked to textile produaion for clothing and cloth, which played an inc rea ingly important role in the new Bronze Age economies of the third and second millennia B.C.E. (Shislina, Golikov, & Orfinskaya 2000 ). Pigs, however, played an insignificant role, because they need forests to roam in (Chernykh, Antipina, & Lebedeva l998:Abb. 10- 11; Morale c ' Antipina 2003:Table 22.3 ). What' e see is a development from localized herding to true pastoralism \\~ h sedentary centres of production that unfolded and reached a clin1ax after 2000 B.C.E., for instance, in the intashta Culntre (Zdanovich & Zdanovich 2002 ) and d1c rubnaya/Timber Gra e Culture. gric lln1re played a minor but increasing role through time as supplementary production (see Bunyatyan 2003; Gershkovich 2003; Morales & Antipina 2003; Otroschenko 2003; Pashkevich 2003 ). B.C.E.,

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Thus, from the Pontic region to the Balkans, central and northern Europe, the third millennium ll. C .E. saw the expansion of a new type of agropastoral economics. These socicrie shared many raits in economy and blllial ritual, uch as th e construction of tumuli over graves and the predominance of indi\ idual burials (Yamna , Corded Ware, Battle-Axe, and Catacomb Cultures). They also employed ox -drawn , four-wheeled wagons ( Burmeister 2004 ). Recent paleobotanical evidence has made it clear that the third millennium 1~ . C.E . represents the formation of open steppe like environments that apparent!)' erved as pasture for grazing animals from d1c rals t northwestern Europe (Andersen 1995, 1998; Kremenetski 2003; Odgaard 1994 ). The mobile lifestyle is exemplified by he usc of mats, tcms, and wagons, which arc orncrimcs found in burials (Ecsedy 1994). Some have called this a "barbarization" or decline of ilie Neolithic (Kruk & Milisauskas 1999; R.assamakin 1999:125 tT, 154). It followed after a period in the fifth to fourth millennia , when stratified societies with copper metallurgy \ ere developing in the Balkan-Carpathian region, only ro collap e or be ransformed during the later part of the founh millenniumiJ.C.E. (Chernykh l992:Chaptcr 2; Shcrratt 2003). Stretching from the Romanian Black Sea coast to the north -east of the Dniester- Dnieper Rivers, tl1e proto-urban communities of the Tripolje Culture dming this period created a barrier toward the west. It represents what Mallory has called me first oftJu·ee f.1ult-lines to be passed in order to explain the expansion of Indo-European languages. These proto-urban commlln ities, ' hich also employed some form ofp1imitive script (token ), were organized around fortified settlements with two-storey houses arranged in concentric circles, the largest settlement extending 100-400 ha and containing 5,000- 15,000 people (Videjko 1995 ). Each community with satel lite settlements would hold some 6 ,000- 20,000 people, and a local group of several communitie between 10,000 and 35,000 people. Their interaction witl1 steppe communities and later abandonment or transformation into pastoral groups from the late fourth millennium onward is till a matter of debate (Chapman 2002; Dergachev 2000; Manzura 2005 ), but it opened up for a westward expansion of the new social and economic practice into central and northern Europe. Approximately at the same time, during the middle to late fourth millennia 11. .E., the Caucasian region rose to prominence as a metallurgical center of production, and from 3200 to 1800 IJ.C.E. there developed a Circum-Pontic metallurgical province, including natolia, that received most of its metal fi·om the hu ge mines in Caucasia (Chernykh 1992; Chernykh, Avi lova, & Orlovskaya 2002 ). ·ound the centers of production and dis riburion in the northern Caucasus tl1ere emerged a series of su·atified ocieties, burying their dead in impressive and richly furn ished lm~;gam ( Rezepkin 2000). T he

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Maikop Culture, as it is called, integrated local and foreign influences ffom northern Mesopotamia (Stein 1999). ometimes they wou ld contain imports (for example, decorated silver vessels) not even present in the center , SliCh as the famous Maikop burials ITom the late fourth millennium ruk expansion (Chernykh 1992:Chapters 3-5, Figures 17 and 31; herratt 1997). In some ch iefly burials we find a Me opotamian royal symbol, a copper arm ring with protruding ends, daggers, and swords (Rezt:pkin 2000:Tatel 13ft~). Here, in the chiefly kmgaus, we find the earliest four-wheeled wagons !Tom the mid fourth millennium n.c.E. (Trifonov 2004). The new s cial and cc nomic organization was also adopted in the southern steppe from 3000 n.c.E. onward where it proved highly dynamic. The third area of new research is in the field of metallurgy and ab olute chronology. E. . Chernykh and his colleagues have carried out a long-term research project that has made i possible to identif)' different metallurgical provinces during the third and second millennia B.C. E. ( hernykh 1992 · Chernykh, vi lova, & Orlovskaya 2002 ; Chernykh & Kuzmin ykh 1989 ). In recent )'Cars,' ork has been conducted in collaboration with Spanish colleagues to detail this evidence especially the ecological impact of lar' city-states of Mesopota mia had developed new patterns of trade and exchange that required approp riate concepts regarding property and the tra nsmission and aCCLIITI Ldation ofwealth . This in turn enta iled a new economic and legal definition of f.:tm ily and inheritance (Diakonoff 1982; Postgate 2003· Yoffee 1995 ). These new concepts were selectively adapted to differe nt and less complex social and economic environments in the Caucasus and beyond , which led to the formation of new institutions based on a concept of rank li nked to

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movable, personal property, mainly in the form of pre tige goods and herds of animals. The new patterns of social organization were ritually manifested in a type of lwrgans with individual burial and tich deposits of personal grave goods. They later also influenced societies on t he steppe and even south of the Caucasus, for example. the Kura -Araks Culture (Dolukanov l994:30lff, Figure 6. 18; Kohl 2001; Rothman 2003 ). The latter represented a new type of sociot:conomic network that appears to have monopolizt:d production and distribution of metal in the Levant and Mesopo amia. They may in fuct repre enr d1o e Indo-European -speaking groups d1at were later mentioned in written . ource under various names such as Hun·ians and H ittites. I thus propose that the transmission fnew patterns of social organization fi·om the city-stares of the south during d1e Uruk expansion , involving altered definitions of f1mily, property, and inheritance, fac ilitated the forma tion of a mobi le, agropastoral society in the steppe region and beyond . It focused on tht: monogamous extended fumily as a central social and economic unit, based on a pa rilineal Omaha kinship system (sec discussion in Kristiansen & Larsson 2005:Chapter 5; Rowlands 1980), favoring the accumu lation of mobile' eald1 through expansion and exogamous alliances, and its transmission between generations. The individualized tmnulus burials, furnished with d1ese very SJme symbols of weJith, represented the rituJlized institutionJiizJtion of these new principles, now also transferred to the land of death. They correspond to a specific religioLI cosmology that developed into a complex religion ystem by the second millennium B.C.E., when it is manift:sted in written sources (Kristi:msen & L1rsson 2005:Chaptt:r 6 ). Anod1er important institution that was introduced from the early cirystJtes to their peripheries in Anatolia and Caucasus was that of warriors and organized warfare under royal or chiefly command. In the Eurasian ocictics of the third millennium B.C. E., the ideal of the male warrior was associated with the institution of chiefly leadership (Vandkilde In pres ). It was materialized in the Ltbiquitous, carefully executed w, r axe in precious stone, copper, ilver, or gold. We can nO\ begin to see the contours of a more complex division of ocial roles and instin.tions (Hansen 2002; Mi.iller 2002). Speciali sts, such as he metal smith, can be identified in burials, and ritualized, pricsdy fi.mctions arc also indicated in grave goods. A complex society of\ arriors, priests, specialists, and herders/farmers is emerging, albeit in embr)ron.ic form . he new set of social roles and the new rules of kinship and inheritance of property and mobile wealth also brought stricter and more differentia ted definitions of gender roles. Male and female identities arc trictly defined in burials (Hausler 2003 ), and the uni ersal adoption of the family burial covered by a trmmluscan be seen as the ritual forma lization of the gendered, monogamous f.'lmily.

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Conclusion: The Formation of the Eurasian Interaction Zone and the Mobile Warrior Societies

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The formation of the Eurasian interaction zone known to us from the Iron Age onward as the Silk Road originated in the long-term social and ecological tran formations described above. Dming the th ird millennium B. C .E. they mainl y affected the we tern steppe area, a we ll a central and northern Europe, whereas fi-om the econd and early first millennia ll.C. E. they also included the eastern and southeastern steppe. This second expansion ' as a result of connections already established with the city-states and kingdoms of Anatolia and Mesopotamia . By the end of the second millennium these processe had transformed Eurasia into a vast interaction zone for mobile , warlike pastoral nomads, linking eastern and western Asia to a common historical pulse. As recognized by Philip Kohl (2003:21 ): " Major transformations in he prehistory of Eurasia were marked by fundamental developments in the produ ction and exchange of materials basic to the reproduction of and consolidation of societies stretching fi·om the Eurasian steppes to the ancient Near East and northern Europe. Whatever model one adopts, this certainly was an interconnected world." Periodical expansions through conquest migra ions into neighboring regions of eastern Europe, Anatolia, and the Near East sometimes brought long-term historical d'fects, while at other times not. Innovations in ' arfare, however, were often linked to such periodic conquest migrations. These macro-hi rorical pr ce e were accompanied by mi ·ro-lcvcl tran formations in ocial organization. The third millennium B. .. E. aw the formation and expansion of the monogamous fa mily (km:oa·us, individualized fumi ly bwial ), herd inheri ta nce and patrilineal, Omaha-type kin hip systems hrOLighout Eurasia, symbolically expressed thrOLtgh new, forma lized burial rituals. The concep of personal properry and its accumu lation and transmission within families was derived from Mesopotamia. Adapted to a steppe environment and mobile pastoralism, it rrenerated new economic dynamics leading to demographic expansion, migration , and new social institutions of leadership linked to warfure and the accumulation of mobile wealth. In the early second millennilltll B.C.E . , new in novations in warf.'lre and metallurgy (for example, the chariot, weapons, tools) allowed warrior groups to establish n ore coercive forms of power relations and exploitation. It led to the formation of complex warrior socictie , ruled by war leaders and ptiests with their dependent specialists. Herders and farmers were now emerging as distinct social groups ruled by the elite. This archeological trajectory corresponds to the reconstruction of Proto-Indo-European society proposed by historical linguists and sociologi ts. During the first hal f of the second millennium 1\.C .!'.. , these

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warrior societies engaged actively with the emerging city-states of Anatolia and the ear East, and in a series of conquest migrations alternating with trade they expanded toward China, India, and into the Aegean. In the process, they also trans~ormed the organization of warfure throughout Eurasia, which over the next several centuries was based on chariotq', later foUowed by mobile warrior on horseback. The warrior societies of the steppe corridor connecting Europe and the Far East, histm-ically known as the Silk Road , were thus established and over the nex three millennia remained a central factor in the history of we tern Asia.

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Note 1. Based on palcobor-ani..:al work ..:anied out during the last ten to fifteen years, it

can now be stated that during the third millennium huge areas from the 1~\l ro no1·thwestern Europe were transtormed into open grasslands. The tmnsformation is ' 'ery well documented in a number ofca e studies (Andersen 1995 , 1998 · Kri tianscn 1989 ). Thi ma sive deforestation was caused by a new economic strategy ofpasroml herding with some agticulture. lr thus represented a social and economic transf(1rmation on a large in rern:giona l scale. Yamna C ul ture, orded Ware, Beaker, and Single Grave ultu rcs all shared this economic Stl~\tegy (but with local culruml variations), and a similar cosmolom• linked to single burials, mostly under low mounds along river vallc)'S or orl\cr ecological zon~tions. T he form~tion of this open environment in northwestern Et 1 msi~ held a huge potential for large-scale interaction that was not ti.Jll)• exploited until the systematic introduction of metallu rgy (bronze ).

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CHAPTER 11

Climate, Water, and Political-Economic Crises in Ancient Mesopotamia and Egypt1

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W I LLIAM R. TIIOMPSON

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Despite widespread concerns about contemporary global warming, climate considerations do not currently w. rrant a g reat deal of attention in Old \1\forld archeology. Cu lture and ideology seem to fure much better in an era more inclined to empha ize difference between and among ocieties. Yet t he current ambivalence toward climate as an explanatory variable may be sacrificing an important key to wa)'S in which ancient systems behaved, both similarly and differently. For instance, the first two areas to develop in the O ld World, Me opot:unia and Egypt, ditTered from each other tremendously. Mesopotamia was politically pol)'Centric, earl)' to urbanize, and taken over by successive waves of people ' ho had moved into the area from adjacent hinterlands. Egypt became politically unicentric fuirly early on was slow to urbani ze, and was comparatively more successful at resisting outsider takeover bids through the second millennium H. .. E. Despite some early Mesopotamian influence on Egypt, their cultures, religions, political ideologies, and languages ' ere quire different. Although unlike in many ways, the two earliest systems did share something that might be termed "poli .ical -econom ic rhythm ." The parallels in the timing of the changes of successive regimes and periods of greater and lesser nm11oi l in the two ancient Near Eastern centers are quite remarkable. Cultural and ideological differences cannot account to r these simi larities. To the extent that climate change can contribute to explaining these similarities, climate appears to ha e been a par ticu i z

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to episodicallr) to regime transtnons, center-hinterland conflict, and the beha\~o ral tempo of the first large -scale experiments in societal complexity. Moreover, is it possible to demonstrate even fttrther that similar climatic deterioration experiences in Mesopotamia and Egypt led to similar societal problems at roughly the same time? If both questions can be answered positively and successfully, it should be obvious that invoking a climatic fuctor need not lead to environmental determinism. Even if the two systems faced similar environmental problems a roughl y the same time, their general responses were not idcntic:li. Otherwise, their differences in organizational strategic and belief. ystems wou ld have not been so pronounced. Climate changes can create opp rtunities and challenges, but they need not dictate the ourcome. Hypotheses (and indicators) on climate change, river levels, regime transitions, economic prosperity, n·ade collapse and reorientations, and centerhinterland confl.ict are derived from a simple model of general proce ses and then applied to Mesopotamia and Egypt for the period 4000-- 1000 ll.C.E. Four of five hypotheses receive substantial support. strong case can be made for linking water scarcity problems systematically to confli t, the full of governmental regimes, and the collapse of trading regimes. Vatious Mesopota mian and Egyptian cultural inno ations may also be traceable to environmental change. Thus, the effect of clim:ne ch:mge was not merely th:lt of Jn occasioml catastrophe or g radual drying. Climate effects persisted throughout the dur-ation of the ancient world . They helped foster the emergence of the ancient civilization in the first place and then played a key role in their demi e. The inAuence of climate change in the period between the migin and the end of the ancient world also appears to be highly significant and persistent.

The Argument T he argument to be developed here is certainly not that all problems in a social yste m can be blamed n the weather. or is the argum ent really reducible to a straightforward "climate-produces-problems"-type of explanation. In the ancient world, climate was a contextual factor that arguably in fluenced a large number of other important processes such as agricultural pro periry, statemaking governmental legitimacy, population size, size of urban labor force., religion, trade, warfure , and so forth . Climate was particubrly critical to the dynamics of carrying capacities in the ancient world. The easiest general ization to make is that turmoi l of various sorts was more likely to develop when carrying capJcit)' was threatened or exceeded. ClimJte, therefore, can be linked fairly easi ly and fundamentally to inn·a-elite and center-hinterland conflict in sy tem in which economic survival is vulnerable to environmental deterioration. And

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II. CL I MAT E, \VA TE R, ANI1 POLITICAL -EC ONOMIC C R ISES

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what system is not vulnerable to some degree? However, fringed by aharan deserts in the west, Arabian desert and the Indian Ocean in the south , the Mediterranean and y1ian deserts in the north , and mountains in the cast, the ancient southwest Asian region appears especially vulnerable to periods of extensive drought. In that respe ·t, the fragility of the system to environmental deterioration was q uite pronounced, but it was not unique. Comparable situations can be found in , for instance, the American southwest (LeBlan · 1999) and even Polynesian islands (Kirch 1984). Climate discu sion are hardly novel. Three item arc needed ro add someth ing new to the debate. First, we need a model that locates climate change within the nexus of a network of interactive societal processes. Some effects of climatic deterioration are direct, whereas others are more indirect. If we are not proposing a simple, bivariate relationship between climate and conflict, how might we expect its manifestations to be best revealed? Just how extensive (or superficial ) are these manifestations tho ught to be? econd, we need data on the processes and relationships tha the model suggests are most word1 examining empirically. Finally, we need explicit te ts of hypotheses de rived from the model. Granted, hypotheses about ancient system processes are not easily rested. The data are incredibly recalciu-ant when they exist in the first place. But the effort shou ld be made. Otherwise, it will be difficult to evaluate the relative accuracy of the model's hypotheses in terms other than fuce valid ity or logical rigor. Given the academic unpopularity of climatic explanations (see, for instance, Tainter 1988 ), attempts at empirical substantiation are especially indispensable.

The Model A prime mover in the model is water availability, which is predicated, in turn, on climate change. 2 These two variables were especiall)' ctitical for ancient systems, it is argued, becau e they were agrarian economie highly vulnera ble to cha nges in precipitation and temperature. sec nd reason is that these earl y societie emerged in river valleys and were highly dependent on a pred ictable Aow of water in the rivers around which their agrarian activities were organized:' Climatic deterioration affected the reliability of the amount and even the location of water in these central rivers. A third reason is that the appearance of the earliest Old World civilizations was initially fuvored by climate, that is, before the genesis of societal complexity ( llrbani zation, wri ing, organized religion governmental coordination ), and their develo pment then strongl y influenced by climatic deterioration . The as umption is that the package of so ·ictal complexities that did emerge might have developed quite differently in the absence of climatic deterioration.

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WI LLI AM R. THOMPSON

The amount of water in the central rivers (for example, the Tig~is - Euphrates and the Nile) influenced how much land could be cultivated. An abundance of water meant more land could b~.: culti ated. carcity Jed to a contraction in the amount of land under cultivation , crop f:1ilures, fumine, :md increased interest in inigation practices. As river levels dropped, several things happened. Human settlements that had been "~despread in wetter times were abandoned as villages that now found themselves too fur from a water supply became untt:nable . Some of their population was dislocated roward areas tl1at still had access to water. Loc..'ll population density in the latter areas increased as a consequence. [n . outhern lesopotamia , the surviving population center'S thus grew into cities. In southern Egypt, population concentration near d1e Nile increased . The size of d1e labor force, swollen with economic refirgees fi·om dryer areas, expanded. Economic specialization became bod1 more possible and more nece sary. So, too, did agricultural intensiflcation, the construction and maintenance of irrigation infi-astrucnn·e, and d1e building of temples and monumental architecnrre (pyram ids, ziggLn-ats). More complex divisions of labor, greater population density, and more public goods increased the need for coordination, d1ereby expanding the role of bureaucratic and governmentalmanagei"S. ot everyone chose to move to these expanding concenu-ations of people. A diflerent type of economic speci:llization occurred as some people chose to concenu-ate on raisi ng herds of live rock in less populated zones. Finding pasttire for these anirnals meant seasonal migrations. The distinction between edemary and nomadic populations became greater as a consequence. Thus, urbanization, nomadism, centmlized religion, government, writing, and intensified trade were outcomes of these processes . The urbanization proceeded , particu larly in Mesopotamia, ti-om the concentration ofp pulation around a few nuc lei where the population had once been more widely dispersed. Millennia-old trading networks expanded to meet the increased demands of larger, denser, and richer communitie that invariably developed in areas Jacking critica l basic commodi ie uch as wo d and copper. Religion became more important as the environment became less predictable. Ways of communicating with the gods in the hope of obtaining better weather became an increasingly cemmlized activity. A variety of other activities needed coordination. Agricu ltural labor, irrigation management surplus food storage, dispute adju dication, and defense were some of the most prominent. Bureaucrats were needed to count the number of laborers and laves, the number of bowls necessary to feed them, taxes, and commodities exchanged bet\ een communities. Writing de eloped from these mundane accounting pra ·rices. Governments developed fi-om coordination and supervision practices designed to enhance economic productivity, suppress

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16 7

domestic disorder, expand the community's access to resources, and protect the community fi·om external attack. Then a now, go ernrnents were evaluated for their ability ro fulfill their coordination and protection responsibilities. They were no doubt also blamed for climate-induced economic deterioration, even if there was not much that could be done about it. T hat too has not changed much. In periods of severe economic dett:rioration, govern mental legitimacy could be expected to suffer. Hungr}' populations were more likely to protest and riot. npaid armies were more likely to rebel. Provincial govern01 ' ere more likely t act more autonomously fro m a weakening central government. 4 Political organization , in general, cycled back and forth berween relati ely centralized and decentralized conditions. One implication of decentralization was a weakened resistance to incursions fi·om tribes inhabiting the hinterland, who were attracted to the river valleys (and the cities located in them ) by he survival problems they were experiencing owing to cl imatic deterioration. To add to their already mounting problems, the probabilit}' of hinterland incursions increased as the cenrr, 1cities became more vulnerable w attack. everal different types ofwarf.otre developed in the ancient civil izations. On the one hand, cities needed protection from bandits, nomads, and unwanted n:fugees . WJIIed cities developed in n:sponse. Ambitious politiCJIIeJders would also go on the offensive to demonstrate their vigor and right to command by attacking groups outside the city ' ails who were perceived as threats. The threats were often real in the sense that the attacks from the center responded to tribal pressure on outlying f.-mns or extended trade routes. MJny of these offensive raids could be expected in the early years of a new reigning monarch, as both in ternal and external demon tration of legitimacy and fitness to rule. The soldiers used tor the e purpo es were recruited ft·om the urban IJbor surplus and fi-om hinterland populations brought under central conu·ol. · cities became states, inter- and intraState conflict al o became more probable. I ntrastatc conAict wa inherent to the cycle of political centralization and decentralization mentioned above. The states also needed cultivable land , access ro raw materials not available at home, and secure trading networks. xpansion of the state to achieve d1cse goals increased d1e probability of conflict with other states d1at were also expanding in d1e same direction, or with states \ hose territory o r spheres of influence were being encroached on. A deteriorating envir onment would make d1ese interstate ti-ictions all the more d1reatening. Contrary to contemporary myths, sovereignty issue did not first emerge in the 1648 Treaty of Westphalia. They emerged housands of years before in he ume1ian city- tate system, the conflicts between pper and Lower Egypt and tl1eir neighbors and , subsequently, in tl1e conflic s of tlccessive empires in the NeJr East.

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WILLIAM R. THOMPSON

entral to this argument is the fac t thatwaten as more readily available in the ear East prior to the fourth millennium R.C.E. The availability of water initially encouraged the expansion of human populations in the region, particularly in the river valleys. 5 When precipitation and river levels declined, subsequent water scarcities prompted the development of new adaptive strategies leading to the accelerated emergence of nomadic-sedentary divergence, urbanization , writing, government, religion, and state-making. Climate change did not detennine what transpired. There were a host of possible response, many ofwhich were pursued. The most succe sful strategies, however, involved the development of cities and states. Climate change may not even have been neceS!ary for these developments ro ccur. Some early concentrations of population such as Caral Huyuk and Jericho emerged prior to the general deterioration in 1 ear Eastern climate. But cLimate change accelerated the development of multiple , interactive processes to new level of intensity. \¥here once populations had been more dispersed larger and more concentrated centers began to emerge and persist, which en tailed a number ofimplication for other societal processes. Sub eq LICnt climate changes continued to shape the trajecroric of these evolving societies, for example, the emphasis on conflict among elites and between center and hinterland . Five hypotheses, derived fi·om the model outlined above, are tested in this investigation: Hl: Pt1iods of economic decline in the ancient world were sy tematicall y associated with pe1iods of deteriorating climate and diminished water sup1 ly. H2: Pt1iods of tJ~tde collapse in the ancient 1\'0rld were ystem. tically a sociated with periods of deterioratin g climate and diminished water upp ly. H3: Regime tr.msitions in the ancient world were systenutically :tssociated with periods of deteriorating climate and diminished water supply. H4: The most significant center-hinterland confli cts in dte ancient world were sy rematicall y associated wirh periods of deteriorating climate and diminish..:d water supply.

If any of the first four h}rpmhcses arc supported by the empirical data, it rands to reason that crises in volving economic and political n1rmoil are likely to overlap. To the extent that these crises do overlap, societies and governments are likely to be overwhelmed by a deteriorating envi ronment over which they have decreasing control. HS: T he z

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WI L LIAM R. THOMPSON

ustainable as key parameters such as agricultural productivity were ubstantially altered Y In contrast, the Egyptian end of the ancient world managed to continue to function cyclically, but non itho ut some radical rearranging of its elements. Unification ( for example, the first Egyptian centralization ) took place in the context of fall ing ile Aood leve ls and increasin aridity. The Old and Middle Kingdom polities took advantage of rising river levels and period ic oi l renewa l. T he ew Kin gdom effort not onl y had to \ ork against ful ling Nile level and , even ually, a return to dr y condition ; it was a! o a saulted by hinterland people from throu ghout the eastern Mediterranean area. The Libyan threat was greater than ever before, in part because they were in turn being displaced by migrants tl·om other parts of the Mediterranean world. 10 The collapse of the ancient world in the last centuries of the second millen nium B. C.E . was not simp ly the result of climate change; climate change in the Midd le East, Europe, and Ce ntral Asia appears to have been a sig nificant fac tor in generating extensive turmoil and population movements throughout the eastern Mediterranean area. nlike the Hi ttites, the Egyptians were able to survive this turmoil and fend off the in vasions of the Sea Peoples (see, for instance, Nibbi 19 75; Sandars 19 78). 11 Yet their victory over the Libyans proved o nly temporary. ubsequent d ynastic efforts at centrali zation were undertaken in Egypt, but they were carried out by people of hinterland origin and later by even more distant foreigners . The greatest danger in constructing an explanatio n that assigns great ig nificance to environmen t;~) deterioration wou ld be to suggest that people and social systems behaved a if they had no choice in how ro respond to weather and water pmblems, and that the outcomes were predestined. othin g f the sort happened in he ancient world - ys em, as the many differences between Mesopotamian and Egyptian behavior (see Baines & Yoffee 1998; T ri gger 1993 ) during this period illustrate. Climate and water availabili ty were only two of the ke y variables necess. !')' to recon struc t how the ancient southwest Asian system emerged and then collapsed. However, the a ailable evidence suggests that the interaction of climate and water a ailabiliry with other key variables was pervasive. Economies did not immediately contract or governme nts immediately f.1 ll when confi·onted ' ith deteriorating environments. Continuing detnioration, however, did lead to contraction, the co ll apse o f trad ing networks, and the demi se of pol i ical regimes. imilarl , hinterland peoples did no attack the -enter as soon as the temperature rose or water levels declined . di vision of labor between ce nter and hinterland fi rst had to evolve. Migrations to hinterland areas

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fi·om other areas occurred . The first concentrations of power in Sumer and Egypt enjoyed the advantage of limited hinterland resistance, a condition along with ab und ant water, that became more and more rare with successive regimes. Nor cou ld the successive regimes be assured of continued access to a material foundation for political-economic concentration. In Mesopotamia, agrarian resources diminished in response to these regimes' attempts to cope with Auctuations in the water supply, that is, through irrigation-induced salinization. However, early political -economic regi mes did benefit fro m climatically encouraged popu lation concentrations, a proce s that continued but not at the same rate. Sometimes the center was able to resist the attacks fi·om the hinterland , sometimes the hinterland overwhelmed what remained of the cemer. 12 GraduaLly, however, the capacity of the center to resist not onl}' the assault of mountain and desert tribes, but also the uneven succession of environmental cycles, diminished. T he power of the center to revive and to reorganize itself also diminished, and the system collapsed. This did nor mean that a reconcentration of inno arion and resources was out of the question. Rather, it meant that such a reconcenrration' ou ld be more likely to occur somewhere else. In the ca e of the ancient world -system, somewhere else turned out to be centered in the northern littoral of the Med iterranean (Greece and Rome ), JS well as in China. In sum, the point is not that clim:1te or hin terland attacks' ere responsible for the demise of successive regimes in the ancient O ld World. Hm ever, if the data on climate, river levels, trade interruptions, regime transitions, and hinterland attacks should hold up as reasonably accurate, they appear to be high ly correlated. Deteriorating cl imate and decreasing river levels were associated with ignifican increa es in conflict between the center and d1c hinterland. CoLlapses and reorientations of trad ing networks were most likely in the context of a deteriorating environment. Major regime changes al o appear to be highly correlated with change in climate and river level . The conjunction of multiple types of crises was more probable in times of environmental problems. Correlations are not the same as causation, bur the hypothesized reasons for the correlations are not implausible, and they do suggest causation. These findings indicate rhat neirher climate nor hinrerland cia hes with the cente r should be relegated to the periphery of archeological explanations. They have interacted with each other as well as ' ith a ' ide range of other va riables and processes over long periods of time . We need to continue the inve tigation and mapping of these in eractions as best as' e can in orde r to explain ho' the ancient southwest Asian system , and others like it, worked.

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WI L LIAM R. THOMPSON

Notes l. This paper represents a hi ghly abridged version ofThomp on (2003 ). 2. The model that is sketched here is based on argumcms found primaril)' in Bell ( 197 1, 1975 ) and Hole ( 1994 ). Bell explicitly states that her argument is also applicabk to Mesopotamia, evc:n though she confines bcr own analyses to Egypt. Hole's argument is explicitly restricted to the baid- ruk transition in Mesopotamia prior to 4000 ll. C .E . 3. Butzer (1976:108 ) has described Egyptian economic history as "primari ly one of co ntinuous ecological readjustment to a variable water supply." 4. Vcrcouttcr ( 1967: 280) argues that since E!:,'YPt was 35 ti mes as long as it was wide, na[UraJ conditions made centralized authori ty desirable, where:.\ , in practice, geography made intermittent dismembcrmcnt probable. 5. ccording to Butze r ( 1976:86 ), the Egypti:.1n population quadrupkd in the 1500 yc:.1r preceding the cst:.~blishmem of the Old Kingdom. 6. This is not the last word on the subject, however. AIS3ze and colleagues ( 1998 ) and Joffe (2000) discuss some ofd1c implications of the most rcccnr rcvi ions in the Mesopotamian sequence . These revisions have the effect of cxtcnding the ruk phase further b:~ck in time, th us addressing a period not given much attention here. 7. At d1c samc time, tl1esc "anomalies" uggest cau arion at a scale grea ter dun the l oc~l or even region:~ ! wc~thcr sy rem . 'vVhc•·eas Egypt and the Indus sh~rcd a common denominator in d1e Atncan monsoon (Weiss 2000), Me opotamian river levels arc predicated on nato! ian precipitation. Therefore, similar climate problems in Mcsopmamia and Egypt at roughly d1c same time, especially in conjunction with such problems even outside so uthwest i:.1, suggest world-level cl imate change. 8. The ource for the river level dat:t is Butzer ( 1995:133 ), who rctcrs to his series as " inte rred" vo lume flows but unforrunatel y docs not discuss his spccili~ approach to inference. The ilc plot, however, rese mble Butzer's ( 1976:31 ) plot of East African lake levels which feed into d1c ile, which suggests that the TigrisEuph ran:s reconstruction is bascd on Anatolian lake dat:1. Obviously, the dat:t arc not as solid as we might prefer, but it is unlike!)' that superior ,Jtcrnarivcs for river level csrim:.~tions will be forthcoming in the ncar future. C[ AIS:.~ze (2000 ) for an argument th:~t the attributes of the ecological niche ofsouthcrn Mcsopot:lmia enabled that area to he the first to take the lead in developing "complex civiliz. tion. " Butzer ( 1976:23 ) also notes that the 7000-4000 tl.C. E. rise in lcditerrancan levels, due to melting glaciers and precipitation, transformed the northern d1ird of the Egypria n 1 ilc delta into swamps :~nd lagoons . 9. Jacobsen and Adams ( 1958 ) discuss two major episode$ of salinization for the period in whi ch we arc most interested. The first one was in 2450- 1750 ll.C:.E.,

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179

and a second occurred between 1350 and 950 1\ .C.E. Crop yi elds began to decl ine by 21 00 n.c.E. witholl[ eve r recovering in aneienr rimes. I 0. The arrack of group X on group Y often minimizes the fi.d l scope of activity tlut was involved. Often , group X was set in motion b)' an attack or pressure fi·om

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gro up Z. This is o ne of the luzards of delineating the bound:uies of a system too mrrowly. T he ancient world wa in contact directly, nd indirectly with areas norm all y considered outside its boundaries. T his is also a problem when looking for climate implic, rions under the southwest ian lamppo t. Weather patterns in the kraine and southern Rus ia have im plications for outhwcst A ia if they et on· southern tribal migrations inro the Balkans, A.narolia, and Iran that, in turn , prompt incursions inro the core ofdte .ncienr world -system. Gerasimenko

( 1997) depicts dte 2500- 1000 ll.C. E. aa as one of srrong aridification, peaking around 1500 but continuing into the first miUcnnium ll .C.E. Krementski (1997) identifies a se1iou. and rapid climate shift around 2650- 2350 li.C.E., which c:lllscd the ollapsc ofagriculruml communities in the sourhwcst kraine and Moldova areas. Gcrasimcnko posi ted an c. rlicr add period at 4100-3800 ~.c. E ., but both authors describe the fourth millennium and the first half of the third millennium as gener:tUy cool and wet, f:.woring edemary agriculture. l l. It is sometimes argued that k.sopotamia was sheltered from the destruction at the end of the Bronze Age because of it location, bllt it eem just as likely that by that time it''' s simpl y le s in viting. However, Kassite Mesopotamia had its own Elamite problems roughly at the same time. 12. Butzer ( 1997 ) aiS z

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strong urban and economic expansion , as well as by rising inequalities. That concentration in turn put heavy pressures on the environment. But the dark ages d1at followed, while punctuated by extensive population movements and social disorder, were also characterized by systematic adjustments in the form of a cessation of economic growth, a relaxation of pressures on the environment, and a measure of redistribu tio n ofwealth and power. The concept of a dark age is well embedded in the public mind, both in the metaphorical sense, and in reference to remembered historical experience. The entry for "Dark ges" i1 the fi ftccnd1 edition of E1tC)'tlopn.edia Britmmica ( 1975 ) neatly summariz.es the contemporary understanding of it:

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Dark Ages. A term employed lrom about the 18th cenrur~·

to

denme rhe

early medieval period of western European history; ·pecifically it referred to the tin11: (476-800) when there was no emperor in the we t; or, more gcner;tll)•, to the period between c. 500 and c. l 000, marked by ti·cquent warfurc and a virtual di appearance of urban lite . It is now rarely used b)' historians because of the unacceptable value judgmem it implies. omcrimc taken to derive irs meaning fi·OJn the fuet that li ttle was then kn own about the period; irs more usual and pejorative sense was of a period of imellecrual d:trkne ·s and b:ubarity. It l1as also been used to describe a similar period ( li th ro lOth ccntu tics BC) in the history o fanciem Grecce.2

The Br·itmmica entry treats the term dark ages as a well-known, but also contested, expression . Let us highlight three of its characteristics: 1. It i a well -established concept. Catalog show a number of books u ing it a a ti le. Historian have employed it, albei cau iously, for maybe t\ o centuries, and continue to Ll e it, subject to qualifications. It is crisp and suggestive, and it has recently proven capable of being extended into the realm of Cl1\~ronmental concerns. 2 . It i a descriptive concept fi rst applied ro the period that in the clas ical era followed the collapse of the Western Roman empire. It was then extended to the centuries that followed the demise of the Mycenaean civilization at the close of the ancient era. It is now also used in relation to e ents in ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, and outh Asia. However, it primarily represents the description of a local region rather than a statement on the condition of the world system. 3. It is a concept wid1 a judgmental edge . It is closely linked to d1e idea of civilization, because it is hard to think of "dark ages" before cities and writing. In the paradigmatic case of Rome \ e have d1e center of a regional

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182

GEORGE MOD EL SKI

civilization apparently threatened by, and succumbing to , the onslaught of the "barbarians." In other ca es, roo, a "dark age" connote conditions prevailing in what should be the cemer of the world system, ratl1er than in its hinterlands, which are o nly expected to be "shrouded in darkness."

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These characteristics make "dark a es" an interestin concept, witl1 a fine pedigree, and they highlight important local problems, capable of arousing ome attention. We should give tl1em careful scrutiny bLJ t might also ask: what is their relationship to the general trajectory of d1e world S)'Stem? Are they more than a descriptive reference to periods of "troubles" experienced by some societies at particular times? Are these "imp rram phases in world system history," as ing Chew (2002b:218) declares? What might justif)r projecting such historical events into tl1e future of the modern world system?

Testing for Systemic "Dark Ages" Can we demonstrate d1e existence of dark ages by an analysis of systematic dam on world urbanization and world population? I shall attempt to do this by emplo)ring tl1e "World Cities" database (see below), subject to one overriding prem ise: that world-system histor over the long haul of millennia may be under rood as a sequence of "a ncient," "classical," and "modern" eras. This periodization is now commonplace among students of world histoqr ( hough views might differ as to the precise dating), but it is worth being explicit because each era has its m n special characteristics and is in some way more complex than its predecessor. Can we discern, in each of these eras-ancient, classical, and modern-a phase hat might be labeled "dark" in the light of he record of urbanization? V\'e might recall that the Britannica entry cited above mentioned 'virtual disappearance of urban life" as one principal distingui hing characteristic, the other being fi·equcnt warfure. Can we identi fY recurrent uch phase in the available information on tl1e histor y of world population~ I have put these questions to the "World Cities" database, t he product of a collection effort unden ay since the mid- l990s and previously reported in a number of partia l reports at conferences and on the Internet. Inspired by the work of Tertius Chandler, this database differs from Chandler's in that it does not attempt w cover all the world's cities bLrt documents only those tha might be regarded as the most important in each of the three eras. The criterion of selection for d1e «World Cities" database is the population estimate for each city at a given point in time, on the premise tl1at the most important cities are most likely to be those with the largest populations. The

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12 . AGES 01' REORGANIZATIO:--'

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importance of the city is of course a fi.mction of its position in the world system, its contribution to the institu tional structure of the system. For ancient-era urban centers, the eftort is made to identifY all those that have more than 10,000 inhabitants. For the classical era, the threshold is I 00,000 . For the modern era, our search criterion is much higher than Chandler's, viz. a population of one million. We posit that trends in wo rld cities are representative of world urbanization at large. Included in the collection are data from the earliest beginnings of the system of world citie , in the mid-fourth millennium 1\.C.E., and then at one-century intervaL since 2500 R. .. E., ri ght up to the yea r 2000, for which information ' as culled from the U. . Demographic Yem,booll. The database thus contains information on about 500 urban centers distributed over five millennia, with a rota! of about 1,000 individual data points. The entire project has now been assembled under one cover as Wodd Cities: 3000 R. C.E. to 2000 (Modelski 2003 ), together with a commentary and some analysis of propositions bearing on ' orld- y tem evolLltion. Tables l and 2 supply the basic information for an wering d1e questions we ha ve posed regard in g dark age (for fi.ll ler d ata see Modelski 2003 ). The number of world cities expanded between 3000 R.C.E. and 2000 B.CE ., and between 1000 R.C. Ii . and l , but remained stationar y or dec lim:d in subsequent periods. The same goes for the world population, which expanded bet\ een 3000 and 2000 ll .C . E. and between 1000 n .c.E . and l , but remained stationary between 2000 and I 000 B.C. E. , and bet\veen l and I 000. In the ancient' orld, the collapse of Sumer and Harappa Jfter 2000 R.C .E. was offset by an increasingly wide distribution of citie after 1500 ll .C .E. In the cbs ical world , expansion con tinued to year 1, followed by a sub equent

Table 1 Estimated number of world cities and size of world popu lation in the ancient and cbssical eras (fi·om Modclski 2003:92, 216, column 2) World

itics (number)

3000 ncicnt

B.C.E.

2000

B.C. E.

1000

22

10

B.C. E.

1

1000

16

Cia sica!

4

25

25

World Populatio n (million)

3000

ncicnt

B.C.E.

2000

14

I. ssical

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B.C.E .

50

1000

8 . .E.

l

1000

50 50

254

255

184

GEORGE MODELSKI

Table 2 Region al distributions of world cities in ancient and classical eras (ti·om Modelski 2003:38, 59 ) Ancient World Cities (10,000+)

3000

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-l

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Wesr

i.

Sumcr

B.C.E.

2500

B.C. Il.

2000

B.C . E.

10

18

16

8

13

11

2

Medi rcrmncan

outh Asia

2

6

22

22

East sia Total

10

1500

B.C.Il.

1000

B. C.E .

4

3

8

9

3

4

15

16

500

1000

Classical World Cities (1 00,000+ ) 1000 B.C.E.

East

500 ll.C.Il.

8

ia

West

9

2

ia 4

6

4

5

8

8

4

2

2

2

10

3

I

16

25

19

25

The Americas Total

5

6

ourb and E Asia Mcdi rcrrancan

1

period of no growth or contraction, until growth in West sia regained the level reached in yeJr I. The following paragraphs summarize the conclusions that can be gleaned from these data. L Table 1 how hat urban growth (that i , concentration ) occurred in the first millennium (between 3000 and 2000 n. .. E.), whereas overall zero growth wa characreri tic of the econd (after 2000 ILC E.) . In actual numbers, this means that rhe system of ren " world cities" in 3000 B.C. E. expanded in num ber to 22 in 2000 1u: .E. but then shrank to 16 by I 000 nLE. The sa me pattern holds for the classical period, though in a slightly stronger form: a rise fi·om four major (100,000+) cities in 1000 n.c .E. to 25 in tl1e year 1, but still the same number (25 ) an entire millennium later. Here we have the first p1•imn. fncie case for a "dark age" both in the ancient and the classical worlds, showing up as a no-growth period. This is not a case of systemic deurbanization ; cities did not disappear, just stopped expanding. rban life continued albeit disper·ed, and at a slower pace. The basic phenomenon tl1at we can identify

Unfiled Notes Page 37

12 . AGES 01' REORGANIZATIO:--'

185

hen: is the cessation of grO\ th . T hrough the prism of urbanization, and at the systemic level, the two dark ages represent periods of stasis.

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

2. Lest we dismiss this first basic finding as an exception, or aberration, we ee it confirmed in the second part of Table 1, in the figures on world population. 3 Here again we observe growd1 in the initial millennium of the ancient era (3000 to 2000 B.C .E. ), foUowed by no growth in the next om:. Data for the classical era are better. The first millennium ( 1000 11.c. E. to l ) shows a sharp rise, from 50 million in 1000 B.C .E. to 254 million one tho usand years later. The second, however, hows no growth whatever beyond the level attained in year 1. 4 Ah:hough d1e case is less strong for the ancient era, tor which few firm data are now available, they show a similar trend. This mean d1at both the data sets in Table l , that is, d1e data on world urbanization and on world population, converge. When population expands, cities grow; when population stops growing, cities stagnate or decline. Here is the second basic characteristic of the rwo "dark age ": they are periods of zero growth in popul. rion. 3. A finer-grained picture of d1e two era may be gleaned fi·om Table 2, which shows regional distributions of world cities. It indicates tlut the quantitative stasis characteristic of the two "dark ages" doe · not mean lack of movement, or change. In d1e ancient world, the most striking illliStration is the disappearance of Sumer (in southern Mesopotamia) and of the Indus alley cu lture (i n outh Asia), balanced by the onset of urbanization in the Mediterranean and East Asia, the rwo growth centers of the classical ' orld. umer' as the original "hear land of citie "of the ancient world. In 3000 Sumer accounted fo r eight out of ten world cities, the remaining t\ o (in Iran and Northern Mesopotamia) also being Su mer-influenced. After 2300 n.c.E., the city- rare of Mesopotamia lo t their independence to the empire of $argon of Akkad. In 2000 B.C.E ., Sumer still held one-half of the total and the other important group, in the Indus Valley, was still linked to umer. Bur r III collapsed under the pressure of the Elamites and the Amorites (tor example, ammu rabi ), and in the 1740s II.C. E. disaster struck the south. To quote a recent stud y (Posrgare 1992:299 ), during the subsequent dark ages in Mesopotamia, '' e are confronted with an absence of written informotion," and "there is a consistent absence of archeological remains at the southern cities ." The umerian language died, and its civilization came to an end, while a similar fate befell d1e cities of the Indus VaUey. The H yksos, believed to be Amorites, established themselves in Egypt and, in an episode for wh ich records B.C.E.,

Unfiled Notes Page 38

186

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

GEORGE MOD EL SKI

are sparse, controlled it until they in turn were expelled, in an effort that launched the ew Kingdom. At the same time, urban life was emerging in the Mediterram:an (Cn.:tc, Mycenae ) but collapsed afi:er 1200 B. . E., inaugurating what in the twentieth cennu·y has often been described as the Greek "dark ages," with abundant evidence of destruction and depopulation, but also of Greece's transformation, to use a felicitous expression, from "Citadel to Polis. " 5 While Egypt remained an island of urban life, its once-powerfu l New Kingdom faltered, the Hittite empire collapsed, and Babylon came under attack tl·om Aramean desert tribes d1at had serded in Syria. Almost all the center of the world system were now under severe pressure from the hinterlands. In the classical era, urbanization spread to all d1e major world regions. The general story of the second "dark age" is nor restricted to any one region in recounting the decline and fall of empires. Contrary to a widely held impression, imperial structures ' ere not the dominant organizational force of premodern history. The great urban expansion of the first classical millennium was the product of networks of aLitonomOLIS societies stretching across Eurasia, Ea t Asia, and d1e Mediterranean. The empires d1at emerged toward the close of this millennium- Han in China, Rome in the West, and Maurya (somewhat earlier) in northern India- no more than consolidated the growth of the preceding centUii es. 6 It was the collapse of these empires that aninuted the dark ages of the classical world, and paradigmatically so in Europe. That collapse was due as much to the inherent weakne e of their fur-flung, over-stretched, and undemocratic organization 7 as to the ascendancy of the hinterland . The intrusion of the Huns :md the Germanic and other tribes into the Mediterranean world, culminating in d1e sack of Rome (c.E. 410, 455 ), have become emblematic ofd1e image of "barbarians at the gates. ' But similar processes were also at work in South Asia, where he Ku han , a clan of Yue Qi nomads, e tablLhed a wealth)' domain that supplanted the post-Mauryan world, and in China the late Han dynasty disintegrated under conditions of peasant rebellion and miLitary coups, leading to what historian Jacque Gerner has c. lied the "Chine e Middle ge ." The imperial capital Luoyang was sacked t\ ice, in 190 c .E. by a military adventurer whose army comprised large numbers of"barbarians, 'and in 3 11 by a Xiongnu ruler. This left the field open to " barbarian" rule in northern China but sparked a cultural boom in the south.R In the seventh and eighth centuries the Arab armies brought down the assanian empire of Persia and severely weakened that of Byzan ium, besieging Constantinople itself in 674 and 717. The Arabs came our of the de err hinterlands of the Fertile Cre cen and proceeded to build a Moslem community ( Ummnh) in the central portion of Eurasia. t a time when Europe was experiencing its "dark age ," d1e world of Islam was flouri hing. 9

Unfiled Notes Page 39

12 . AGES 01' REORGANIZATIO:--'

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0

187

By the end of the classical era, we find the four main Eurasian regions assuming quasidistinct identities, each with irs own urban center. The overall level of urbanization is basically unchanged; zero grO\ th, however, did nor mean stability but entailed significant mrmoil consequent upon the decline of the established centers and empires in combination with opportunities for shiftS in power, ne\ alliances, and population movements. It is not at all ob ious fi-o m the last column in Table 2 that the next (modern ) surge of urbanization and population growth wou ld occur in Emope, but it does make it appear like!)' that uch a surge would rapid! pread to all of the world 's major region .

Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

An Evolutionary Process What are the findings of this empirical anal ysis of dark ages? Having searched four mil lenn ia of world history for systematic da a on world urbanization and population, we cannot escape the conclusion that the e idence suggests an evolutionary process. 10 In the first place, ir indexes social change on rhe scale of the world system--call it world community formation, integration, or socialization. Over Ia longue duree, moreover it shows urbanization gaining both in geographical extension and in complexity, moving from smaller to I:.Jrger cities serving a population that grows by orders of magnitude. Over the same span of time, the urban Jr "civilized" way of life has been selected t(x, a the expense of its nomadic, tribal, or rural alternatives . ome fundamenta l innovations have been launched and adopted worldwide: cities and urbanism; literacy, information storage, and time management; and the experience of solidarity on scales larger than blood lines or face -to-fuce ·onract. We al o find that the process of world ocial integration is not imply I i a learni ng proce a matter of marching up a linear lope of progre that includes periods of growth as well as of pause . On the one hand , some periods undoubtedly display characteristics suggestive of "da rk age ." In particu lar, the second millennium of each era ( ec nd millennium II.C.E., first millennium c . E.) teatme zero growth in mbanization and world population that is, two dimensions that are crucial to world -system organization, a condition that would suggest stability, if not necessarily stagnation. On the other hand , eac h of these two millennia also manifestS great structura l changes, evoking evolutionary processes. In world perspective, we observe no general dembanization, population decline, or overall loss of evolutionary potential. That is why, while bearing in mind that the "dark" appellation might be appropriate regarding certain identifiable " local" or regional situations, in the ' ider perspective ' e cannot describe the world system as moving through unequivocally "dark" phases. The world system has not

Unfiled Notes Page 40

188

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

GEORGE MOD EL SKI

exactly passed though dark ages, although it has experienced some localized "dark spots." In sum, what we sec is a long-term social process of world proportions, with I ,000-yea r long periods featuring zero growth but also important u·ansformations: for witl1out the dark ages, could we have had classical Greece or modern Europe: How do we conceptualize these ambiguous periods? In an earlier Lund conference paper ( Modelski 2000:38), I propo ed that the evolution of the world community has entailed a four-phase learning pr cess with 1 ,000-year long phase , a process mar can be characterized as one of world community formation, or socialization:

< ill 0 -l 0

T he evolution of the human community .. . is nor a process oflinear expansion bur o ne of persistenr tension between the pressures for innovation . and the demands for equality that arc the operative conditions of every conccntr~nions of metropolitan power . .. ofi:cn ccmcrcd on opulent citic and brilliant empires. Forming in oppo ition ro them arc d1c himcrlands . . . rhar from dmc ro rime or ,mizc thcmselvc

community. Innovations produce

to

dtl:ct a sysrem leveling.. . . lr is hypothesized that major phases of

concentration, a millennium in length, altc::rnare wid1 c::qually significam intervals of hinterland assertiveness ....

This alternation of millennia! phases of concentration ' ith phases of " reorganization " (see Table 3) can be viewed as a mechanism of selforganization (using the term in the sense proposed by Eric Jantsch [ 1980] in The Self·Orgnuiziug Unil;erse). The oscillations are mechanisms of social leveling but also of environmental balancing. The data on urbanization and population offer trong confirmation of such long-term fluctuations. The alternation of miUermial phases of concentration and redistribution characterizes the proce s of social integration at the level of world system. 11 We postulate a hLrman propen ity to cooperate tha tends to bring about the evolution of torms of cooperative action, even at the global level. The four mi llennial phases in the ancient and classical eras that we have just reviewed can be seen as steps in tl1e creation of several regional matrices of cooperation, fi~meworks within ' hich large-scale cooperative action can develop. As we have seen, four city-based networks of interaction did emerge toward the close of the classical era : in astAsia, arou nd the Kaifeng-Hangzhou ax.is; in outh Asia, between Kannauji, near the Ganges, and the Chola capital ofThanjuvur, in the sou h; in the Moslem world, fi-om Baghdad to Cairo; and in Europe, centered on Constantinople.

Unfiled Notes Page 41

189

12 . AGES 01' REORGANIZATIO:--'

Table 3 Alternation of phases of concentration and reorganization in world sy rem integration

Year

z > z

0

Period

..:

3000

2000

1000

B.C. B.

B.C. E.

B. C. B.

Regional solidarities

u.J

0

u 0 Vl

Phase

1000

1850

2900

Global community

Cone en· Rcorga ni· Rccon - Rcorgani- onccn· Rcorg;mi - Rccon tration l.ation centration zation tration zation ccntration

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

Over a period of some four millennia, we thus ob erve d1e formation, ar the world level, of networks of regional solid:uiries. These involved at various times extensive trade linkages, vast political structures including empires, and wide-ranging religious communities. In the classical world, empires were linked to the spread of religious communities, as in Asoka's espousal of Buddhism in the Mauryan era around 250 B.C.E .; followed by Kanishka's Kushan patronage (around 100 c .E.) d1at propelled it toward East Asia; Cons antine s embrace of Christianity in the Mediterranean world ( 312 c .E. ) ; the "great religious fervor" in "Buddhi t" China in the "middle ages" (Gerner 1982:172 ); and d1e Islamic empire founded by Arab cavalry. Accompanying these changes, al.o, were of course the disse mination of knowledge and technologies particularly of the military kind , together with the intensification of long-distance commerce. Periods of reorganization tended tO\ ard eroding concentration and enhancing leveling. Bur these ancient and classical times were a "rough world " of uncertain order and pervasive inseclllities, lacking in consen us on basic rules and institutions. In these "rough" conditions of the ancient and classical worlds, me catalyst of readjustment were nomads of the deserts, steppe , and forests, who proceeded to impose their rule on d1e faltering centers by force of arms, seizing new lands, power, ' ealth, and social positions. The ages of reorganization saw tew conte;;sts among ce;;ntral powe;;rs but many assaults on power centers from d1e hin erlands. Complementing their military strength was the;; exhaustion of the;; centers, both mate1·ial resource exhaustion (as in degradation of soils, deforestation, and pollution) and human exhaustion (through epidemics, manpower shortages, and lack of adaptability). 12 The question we can now pose is if such conditions are likely to resurf..1ce once again, in d1e modern era of the world system?

Unfiled Notes Page 42

190

GEORGE MOD EL SKI

A New Age of Reorganization?

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

What reasons have we for anticipating another age of reorganization? Table 4 shows the past millennium as another period of concentration. From small and slow beginnings, close to being aborted by thirteenth-century Mongol-induced devastations, the expansion of world cities entered a spurt in the eighteenth century that took them from four "million-plus" citie in 1800 to almost 300 only two cenntries later. Th i is an unprecedented growth rate that probabl)' cannot be sustained for much longer, if onl because world urbanization ha already reached 50 percent of the world popu lation. The same trend is evident in world population, which, according to the United 1 ations projection of 1999 that is used in the table, is expected to approach a plateau by 2 100. Both these trends, urbanization and world population, are thus approaching a peak about a millennium after the closing of the classical age. Their peak may or may not be sustainable, but much greater concentration seems unlikely beyond that point. The empirical projections support the theoretical prediction that the process of world community form ation (what I have al o called "socialization") is entering, or has entered, another age of reorgan ization . In turning our gaze towa rd d1e fi.t ure, we need to sharpen our dating cheme. We have so fu r operated with milknnial ( 1,000-year long) time spans, and at such scales, an error margi n of one or even two centuries might be tolerable. We should add, too, that his millennia! interval is no mere ma ter of operating with round figures, although this nla) seem a legitimate criticism. In the Gl cade of evolutionary processe that is founded on generational turnover, with an average of some 30 years per ge neration, the four phases of world integration are each posntlated to extend over 32 generations, that i , on the average, around 1,000 years (Devezas & Modelski 2003: 18tT). This inter al thus has theoretical as wel l as empirical support. Empirical data provided in Table 4 indicate that the twentieth century wa indeed marked by spectacular spurts both in urbani zation and population d1ar appear similar to those in d1e centurie ' around 2000 n.c.E. and around the year l, even though the most recent rate of growth is the highest ever. But these long-term world -systemic trends must also be understood as synchronized with shorter-range, global processes such as K-waves, long cycles of global politics, and possibly also democratization. For hese shorter seq uences of events, the mid -nineteenth century suggests a turning-point, ' ith say 1850 as the "start" of a new era (as shown in Table 3). 13 That would suggest that a new age of readjustment has now been underway maybe for over a century and a half and will continue its course until dte latter part of this millennium. Setting the " tart" of modern "reorganization" a 1850 does not mean that zero

Unfiled Notes Page 43

191

12 . AGES 01' REORGANIZATIO:--'

Table 4 World cities and world population in the modern era (from 2003:74, 2 16, column 7 ) Year

z 0 ..: > z u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill

World cities (1 million+ inhabitants)

World population (miUion)

1000

310

1500

500 980 1650 6161 9460

1800

4

1900

16

2000

363

2100

l[odclski

0 -l 0

growth must already ha e begun. In fuct, he momentum of concentration may be expected to continue for a while :md was exceptionally powerfu l in the twentieth century. But countervailing forces are now mobilizing, starti ng with new ideas, new ways of! oking at the world. The modern Age of Reorganization will be different from he ancien and the classical ones, in that the world S}'Stem now shows higher capacity for problem solving, including problem of readjustment and redistribution. Knowledge about the functioning of global proce ses is at a decidedl y higher level, making an informational blackout on the model of the earlier dark ages hard to imagine. The bounds of solidarity are in the process of extendin g to all of humanity, institutional structures at the global level are gaining ground, and the economic surpluses available for global action are becoming significant. in d1e earlier fo ur millennia, d1e basis for world order was expansive regional solidarities, the following four millennia would be more than enough to ensure the formation of an integrated world community. VVirhin such a framework, problems of redistribution should ap pear manarreable, e en for a world ' hose cities and population have ceased to expand. It would also be a "nicer" world to live in than those plagued by fear of the " barbatians at the gates." The most substantial promise of a " nicer" world lies in democratization, combined with the IT Revolution, and the onset of global governance. These are processes dla have been registering substantial advances in d1e past millennium . The practices of democracy are now' ell entrenched in a number of nation-stares, and by 2000, over one-half of the world's population lived in democmcies, a cond ition greatly f.wored by a parallel rise in urbanization. But democracy needs to be seen not just as a matter of electoral machinery and constitutional engineering; it needs to be recognized as a condition of leveling that extends to all pheres f social life. The conditions o democmtic life at

n:

Unfiled Notes Page 44

192

z > z

GEORGE MOD EL SKI

th z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

The povcr y of mazoni:m soils and the compensa ing adap ations of the vegetation to edaphic and climatic const ra ints have long been recognized. Weischet and Caviedes ( 199 3 ) identify an 'ecologically decisive difference with far-reaching consequences" bet\ een Amazonian rainforests and extratropical forests; namely, most of the nu trients and all the calcium are stored in the biomass in the fo rmer and in t he oil in the Ia ter. Soil properties that cannot be markedly altered by humans are ( l ) poor weatherable prim ary mineral conten , (2 ) low cation exchange capac ity, and ( 3 ) high mineralization rate of organic matter. Soil acidity, aluminum toxicity, inabili ty to fix phosphorus, intense leaching, imperfect drainage, and nu trient poverty are additional constraints ( Fearnside and Filho 2001; eopoldo 2000 · O EA 1974; Serrao 1985; Sombroek 1984 )-The biota have overcome these obstacles by rapid degradation of organic debris , recycling, . nd torage of t he nutrient in the veget, tion . Retrieval i, maximi zed b)' interspersal of plants with different nutrient requirements, whic h also inhibits the spread of pathogens. Although annual deposition of sediments eroded from the Andean headwaters renews the ferti lity of soils on the varzea (floodplain ) under ideal conditions, "the higher fertility does not automaticall}' translate into a higher potential fo r agricu l ural yield" (WinklerPrins 1999 ). The inception , rate , duration , and magnitude of annual inundation fluctuate, major deviations are unpredictable ( anros 1982 ), and crop loss in some regions has been estimated at one year in four ( Barrow 1985 ). In short, "with the f resent traditional torms of cultivation, the cost-benefit comparison is not significantly better than ' ith eq ui valent forms of cultivation on the Terra Finne" (Petrick 1978:39--40 ). The principal evidence in su pport of dense sedentary population is the existence of patches of :111 th ropogenic black soil ( ten·a pr·eta ) :1long the Amazon and many of its tributaries. Its composition differs from the adjacent soi l in higher contents of calcium, magne ium, p tassium, pho phorus, and carbon, lower content of aluminum, low nutrient leaching, higher water retenri n, high cation exchange capacity, and high proportion of organic matter. Although the specific process of formation is uncerrain , there is general a reement t hat it develops from the disintegration of habitation refuse, and this assessment is upported by the nearly univer al presence of fragments of pottery (Lehmann et al. 2003 ). griculrural productivity is greater for some crops, bllt ferti lity is roo high tor manioc enhances weed production, and declines with continuous culti arion (Hiraoka et al. 2003 ).

Unfiled Notes Page 49

13 . S

STA I NAllL E I

TE NSIVE EX P LO I TA TION 0~ A MAZO:"I A

197

Archeological Evidence

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

The perishable composition of all other cul tural remains makes ti-agmems of pottery discarded in habitation sites the only ignificant form of evidence. Fortunately, pottery is among the ·ultural traits subject to evolutionary drift with reSlliting possibilitie fo r reconstructing prehistoric settlemen and ocial behavior. Realization of this potential depends on collecting un elected sample of adeq uate size from the surEtce or stratigraphic excavatio ns and using unitorm crite1ia for their classification. The trends in each excavation establ ish the direction of change, and excavations\ ith compatible types, trends, and relative fi·cqucncics arc interdigitated to prod uce a sedated sequence . Sites that fit into the same eriation id entil)• an endogamous community and define its territory. amples that cannot be interdigitated identif)• earlier, later, or contemporary comrmmities as ociated with the same or a ditTerent ceramic tradi ion (see Meggers 1999 for details). Applyi ng this methodology to habitation sites on the terra firme and along the varzea permits establishing their magnitude and permanence.

Territories Classification of the pottery from 35 term finm si tes on the lower Tocantins in o utheastern Amazonia produced five seriated sequences distingu ished by differences in the prese1 ce, relati' e frequencies, and trends of the undecorated and decorated pottery types. Plotting the distributions of the sites identified contiguous territories with permanent boundaries that correlate with physical changes in the river and associated differences in the composition, seasonality, and productivity of fish ing and in the method · of capture (Figure 1). This correlation ha been identified bod1 archeologicaU)' and ethnographically elsewhere on the terra fi1'11U and suggests that maximization of adaptation to one set of riverine conditions ' as not equally eftective in another, making reciprocity a more effective str, tegy than invasion (Mcggers 1996; lillcr ct al. 1992; imues & de Araujo-Costa 1987). Village Permanence Wide sepa ration between successive levels of the same excavation in a seriated sequence implies abandonment and reoccupation ofd1e location s.1m plcd. The magnitude of differences in d1e radiocarbon dates fi-om consccuti e levels in the same excavation at RO -PV-35 on the Jamarf in southwestern Amazonia, and the noncontemporaneity of d:ttes !Tom the same depth in different p:trts of the site indicate that the surfuce area cannot be assumed to correspond to a single continuously occupied vilbge (Figure 2 ).

Unfiled Notes Page 50

- - ··~. z 0 ..: > z

• - •i••·

I• II

u.J

0

-l

< ill E

">.

Vl

.."ttosn. Starch fi·om the trunks is the p1incipal carbohydrate source among tl1e Warao in the Orinoco delta and may ha e played the same role among the Marajoara ( Meggers 2001 ).

Eth nographic Evidence The accuracy of the archeologica l interpretations is supported by the existence of the same settlement and social behavior among contemporaqr indjgenous communities that pre erve their traditional behavior. Although ethnographers rarely provide uch data and man ' group have abandoned their indigenou way oflife, endogamous territories witl1 permanent boundaries, matrilocal residence, fi·equentl y moved villages, reoccupation of sires by the sa me community, and avoidance of ires occupied by previou group h, ve all been reported. Territories

Contiguous territories bisected by rivers and occupied by endogamous communities have been reported among the Akawaio (Figure 4; Colson 198384), Achuar ( riane 1985 ), Cubeo (Goldman 1966), SionajSecoya ( icker 1983 ), Kalapalo (Basso 1973), and Yukpa (Ruddle 1974). BOlmdaries are stable and often coincide with rapids or tributary creeks or are separated by unoccupied zones. Exploitation of resources is restricted to the community and rights are respected or defended by supernatural sanctions rather than warfure (Arhem 1981; Conklin 2001; Descola 1994b).

Unfiled Notes Page 54

202

II IiTTY J. M EGG ERS

•

OCCUPIED VI LAGE

o ABANDO ED VILLAGE

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

Figure 4 • Endogamous territories of the Akawaio in west-central Guyana. showing the same pattern of bisection by the river and boundaries at tributaries reconstructed for the prehistoric communities on the Tocantins (after Colson 1983-84).

Village Movement Villages are moved on the average every five to ten years, when the ho use begins to deteriorate, local game is depleted , or land in the vicini ty ui table for gardens is exhausted. Reoccupation of their own for mer village sites has been reported among the Aka' aio (Burt 1977), Kalapalo (Basso 1973 ), Siona/Secoya ( ickers 1983 ), Piaroa (Zent 1992), and Huaorani (Rival1996 ). Avoidance of habitation sites of earlier popu lations has been documented for the Kala palo (Basso 1973 ) and Tukanoans (Reichel-Dolmaroff 1996 ). Both these traits are intelligible in the context of the widespread practice of burial in the floor of the house ( hem 1981; Basso 1973; Butt 1977; Descola 1994b; Gallois 198 1; Reichel -Dolmatoff 1996; ickers 1989; Zent 1992). This sinmion makes it doubtful that terra preta sites were cultivated by Pre-Colum bian groups.

Unfiled Notes Page 55

13 . S

STA I NAllL E I

TE NS I VE EX P LO I TA T IO N 0~ A MAZO:" I A

203

Carrying Capacity

z > z

0

..: u.J

0

u 0 Vl

-l

< ill 0 -l 0

vVhcreas some ethnographers consider d1at conrcmporar Amazonians underexploit their subsistence resources ' to a considerable degree" (Descola 1994a ) and estimate that a population several times larger could be sustai ned (Allen & Tiz6n 1973 ; Arhe m 1976· Lizot 1980· Wagle)' 1977), this optimistic assessment is not shared by their informants. T he Machiguenga fear subsistence failure and practice a wide variety of risk-avoidance behavior ( Baksh & Johnson 1990). The ch uar consider the daily gardening routine risky in spite of it high productivity and take ritual precautions ( Descola 1989 ). Some group. refrain fi·om exploiting certain edible tubers, reserving them as "famine food s" (Li zot 1984; Price 1990; Schu ltes 1977). Contemporary indigenous and cn.boclo com munities consider the flood plain unreliable and ge nerally plant subsiste nce crops on higher ground ( Baksh & Johnson 1990; Parker eta!. 1983 ). Sim ilar concern is reflected in reproductive behavior. T he Tapirape have an " ironclad rule" that no woman may have more than three children, and no more d1an rwo of d1e same sex (Wagley 1977); d1e Siona/ ecoya ideal i four offSpring four to six years apart (Vickers 1989 ). If a Cashinahua woman had a child more frequentl y than every three to four years, older women harassed her hu band for bei ng a sex fiend (Kensinger 1995 ). Abstinence, contraception, abortion, and in fanticide are widespread. A1d1ough it has been argued d1at protein is not a limiting fuctor fo r hLimans (Nietschmann 1980; Vickers 1984 ), d1is view is contradicted nor only b)' the existence of a wide variety of temporary and permanent taboos on consumption of various species and by rotation of hunting zones (Figure 5 ) but also by estimates of sustainable Figure 5 • Hunting territories of a Yanomami community in southern Venezuela. A, O ne-day individual hunt; 8, Temp· orary camp; C. Four to live-day communal hunt; D, Annual sojourn of the entire commu nity during

------

Unfiled Notes Page 56

several weeks (after Good 1987, Figure 16.1).

204

II IiTTY J. M EGGERS

Table 1 'usrainable population density estimated from carrying capacity of hunting and agriculture compared with that recorded • mong conrempoi~lry Amazonian

gro up . Sustainable Carr ying Capacity

z > z

0

..:

0.2/ km 1

Robinson & Bcnncrt 2000:24 (hunting)

0.2/ km 1

Hi ll & Padwe 2000 (lHinting)

u.J

d / km 2

!\lli lncr-Gulla.nd cr al. 2003 :351 (hunting)

u 0

dl.2/ km 1

Phillips 1993:30- 31 (gathcring)

-l

0.24/ ha

Fcarnsidc 1990:195 (soil)

z

200

0

600

Vl

800

I

0

..: u.J

u 0 0 -l 0

I

I

-l

< ill

I

400

1000

I I

1200 1400

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3200 3400 Figure 6 • Correlation between discontinuities in the archeological sequences from northeastern Bolivia, the Jamarf, the lower Xingu. Maraj6 Island, and the lower Orinoco. and mega-Nino episodes around 500, 1000, and 1500 c .~ .. reflecting the catastrophic impact of severe drought on well -adapted human populations.

date tor separations in the major language fam ilie and radiocarbon dates for the archeological discontinuities provides an explanation (Dixon & Aikhen aid 1999; Meillet 1952; Renfrew 2000). Dispersal is also reflected in the con ensus among geneticists that " the pattern of genetic relationships and genetic diversity . .. is con istent with the hypothesis that evolution in o uth America proceeded by a process of fission -fi.1sion leading to isolation of ubpopulations

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with subseq uent genetic differentiation " ( alzano & Callegari-Jacques 1988; Ward et al. 1975 ). Geomorphological, sedimentological, and hydrological studies conducted along the middle Amazon above and below the mouth of the egro indicate that the JI/1.1'ZCfl. reached its pre enr extent only after sea level stabilized, giving it a maximum antiquity ofS ,000- 6 ,000 years ( Irion, Junk, & de Melo 1997). It has been suggested that the present vegetation was not established until about 2000 years ago (Bel1ling 2002 ).

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Historical Evidence Although advocates of the existence of large permanent settlements along the Amazon and in tl1e Guianas support tl1eir interpretation witl1 tl1e descriptions by Carvajal and other sixteenth- and seventeenth -century explorer , historians warn against trusting tl1eir accounts (Ales & Pou yllau 1992; Hemm ing 1978; Henigc 1998; Megger 1993- 1995; Silverberg 1996). They srress that "the mentality of the conq uistador was peculiar to him and emerged fi·om his unique historical ~ormation .... T he e Europea ns ... wrote stories with themselves as the heroes and tl1e Other as antagonist and background . They wrote stories for self-justification and glory; it was not necessary to poru·ay the places they went and tl1e people tl1ey saw accurately-just that tl1ey do it convincingly. nfortunately for archeology, they succeeded" ( ,a]JQ\ ay 1992). Contemporary maps demonstrate how little tl1e explorers knew of the geography of the ri ers. lbleigh 's map ofL1ke Parima, the locus ofEl Omado, reputed to be so large it took three days to paddle from one end to the otl1er, looks like a gigantic centipede. Although no one ever sa' it, the lake appeared on map fr·om 1599 (Figu re 7) 1808, con tituting " b)' f.1r the biggest and most persistent hoax ever perpetuated by geographers" (Gheerbrant 1992 ).

Discussion Advocates of the ex istence of dense sedentary populations throughout Amazonia after 1 C. E. assume that' tl1e size and depth of Amazonian Dark Earth are direcdy associated with population size of the settlement and ettlement duration ." Altl1ough tl1ey recognize that "as forests around the settlements were gradually turned into gardens, fields and orchards, firewood wou ld be imported from longer distances' and that the amount of palm fi·onds required for thatch would have been" tagge ting," they djsmi s the sigrtificance of thee constraims (Erickson 2003 ). revie' of the etlmographic and archeological literature offers a different perspective.

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Figure 7 • Map of the Guianas by Theodore de Bry published in 1599, showing Lake Parima, the presumed location of the "great and golden city of Manoa." Although dozens of expeditions searched for it in vain, the lake continued to appear on maps until1808 (Alexander 1976).

Among the Bad, a single communal house required 750,000 fi·onds fi·om 125,000 palm collected from40 km 2 (Beckerman 1977). The tha£Ched roof of a typical Pume house consumed 13,498 fronds, wh ich had to be replaced every two to three years. Scarcity of palms in the vicinity is a factor in the abandonment of he house among the Achuar ( Descola 1996) and Ka'apor ( Balee 1994). These data are incompatible with the satisfaction of the n:quin:ments of a city of200,000 at Santarem for thatch and firewood during e eral hundred year . Iris 1 oreworrhy that scarcity of firewood alone has been proposed z

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1996), and measurement of the internal floor space of potential resid nces and the capacities of associated cisterns at Xculoc in Campeche "suggest that most estimates of Maya population made during the past twenty years need to be examined" and reduced 30-50 percent ( Becquelin & Michelet 1994). The maximum productivity of arable land places the sustainable population of the central Andes in 1542 :Jt under two million ( he:1 1976 ), and the population of Egypt during the G reco-Roman period has been estimated at not more than six mill ion (Hassan 1994). Reevaluation of settlement data and subsistence productivity indicate that Cahokia was occupied b)' "no more than several thousa nd people, certainly not tens of rhous:1nd of them" (Milner & O liver 1999). The contrast between the impressive physical remains in these regions and the scattering of pottery tl·agmems representing the more substantial populations postulated to have existed in Amazonia is notable.

Conclusion Hunter-gatherers arrived in Amazonia at least 13,000 years ago (Meggers & Miller 2003 ). During subseq uent millennia, they acquired comprehensive knowledge of the biota, culminating about 3000 B.C.E. in the establishment of semisedentary villages supported b}' shifting cu ltivation . By 200 R.C.E. , the population density, settlement, and social behavior characteristic of survi ing traditional commlln ities had bee n adopted throughout the lowlands . The achievement of sustainable exploitation of rainfore t resource i reAected in the close agreement between their typical population density of 0.3/km 2 and independent estimates of0.2/km 2 for sustainable carrying capacity. Five hundred year after the first Europeans described large cities and complex social organization in Amazonia, their exi tence continues to be accepted by anthropologists in spite of the absence of archeological evidence. By contrast, tl1e impossibility of intensive ag1iculture is increasingly documented by il experts and validated by the fuilure of modern efforts ro achieve ustai nable production. Rather tl1an assume that the prehistoric population found a way that we have yet to discover to overcome the inherent environmental constraint , we need to abandon "the lingering myth of Amazon empires" (Foresta 1991 ) and reconcile the archeological and environmental evidence. T his reconciliation is not only crucial for understanding prehistOiic cuJnn-al development, bur for designing sustainable programs for modern use of the region.

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CHAPTER 14

Regional Integration and Ecology in Prehistoric Amazonia: Toward a System Perspective 1

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Thi chapter discus es the significance of a regional system perspective for the ongoing debate on the exrem of social stratification z

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Figure 1 • Model of the recursive relation between socioecological niche and ethnic identity

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construction, indicating the main categories of traces left by such processes in prehistory, and

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the different academic fie lds required to recover them .

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as the llrm(}s of Venezuela and Bolivia and t11e coastal areas of Guyana ( cf. Heckenberger 2002: 105-1 06). Considering the discovery of pottery near Santarcm dating from rJ1e sixth millennium n.c.E. ( eves 1999:219; Roosevelt et ::1!. 1991 ), however, we see that it is un likely that the highly productive floodpl ains and aquatic resources in these areas would have been unoccupied prior to the Arawakan expansion beginn ing in the secon d millennium 1\.C.E. Whether earlier populations were displaced by or incorporated into rJ1e Arawakan net\ ork, the lingu istic distribution maps uggcst that the Ara\ akan expan ion created ethnic wedge that contributed to rhe geographical demarcation of o ther, spatially more consolidated linguistic fum ilies such as Carib, Tukano, and Pano. In some cases, it is even possible to detect how a wedge of Arawakan languages has split a previously united language fumily, as in the case of the Panoan grou ps on either side of t11e A.rawaks along the Purt'1s and Madeira (cf Erikson 1993:55 ). The dispersed pockets of Arawakan dialects that have been documented along m e river systems from t11e lower Orinoco to he upper Madeira appear to be the remains of a conrigLJOLIS network of A.rawak-speaking societies rJ1ar in prehistoric times spanned the entire extent of western Amazonia. In view of their ro le in integrating regional exchange, rJ1ese Arawak-speakers should be viewed not so much as ethnic "wedges" as the social "glue" of ancient Amnoni:t. Although a recent and aurJ1oritative summary of Amazonian linguistics (Dixon & Aik.henvald 1999a ) advocates extreme skepticism with reg;1rd w higher-level genetic grou pings, several studies have suggested various degrees of affinity among the four most importi\nt language famil ies in Amnonia: Arawak, Tupi, Carib, a.nd Ge. To the extent that mere is a foundation for any of these studies, it would lend support to the hypothesis that at least the e fa milie are to be een a pmduct of regional ethnogenetic pmce se ra her han as traces of migrations from other parts of he continent. The signincaJKe of ecological factoJ in uch processes dese rves also to be considered. Betty Meggers (1982, 1987) has suggested that drought-related Aucruations in the extent of fo rest vegetation have contributed to the geographical distribution of di flerent language fa milies, ome of whom (for example, horriculturalists such as A.rawak, Tupf, Pano, and Carib ) were originally connned to distinct fore r refugia but subsequently expa nded , at the expense of s:tvanna -dwelling huntergath erers, with the recoveqr of rJ1e rainforest as t11e climate grew more humid . Dixon's Puncwated Eq uilibriLm1 mode l similarly implie that linguistic fum ilies uch as Arawak, Carib, and Tupf, prior to the " punctuation represented by rJ1e adoption of agricu.ltme, originated a the result of relative confinement within specinc geographical zones (Dixon & Aikhenvald l999b:l7 ). However, ecological factors can be a sumed to be sign.ificant for the distribution of,

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for instance, Arawak (wetland agriculturalists) and Ge (hunter-gatherers of the dry savanna) without any reference to paleoclimatic Auctuations or to ecologically induced isolation. On the contrary, an anthropological perspective on the formation of etl1nolingu istic identities would emphasize ecologically induced interaction rather than isolation (Bartl11969 ). The geologically recent expansion of Arawak-speakers along Aoodplains and wet savannas fi·om the llmwsof \ enewela to the /lmwsofBolivia over tl1e course of a millennium and a half(cf Hecken berger 2002: l 06- l 07) suggests the systematic exploitation of an existing ocioec logical niche, in inren ive interaction wid1 the popu lations of other such zone , rather than reAecting po r-Pieisrocene changes in biogeography or long periods of homogeneous, egali arian "equilibrium." Furtl1ermore, as studies in historical ecology show, the relation between ecology and cultural identity cannot be a matter of one-way causality, when the biophysical environment is continuously ransformed by human activity. convincing account of me genesis of ethnolinguistic divisions 111 prehistoric Amazoni.. needs to recognize he recLtrsive relation between ecological and economic pecialization within regional exchange systems, on the one hand, and ethnic and cu irural creativity, on the other (Figure I ). The various cultural traits and institutions that enabled Arawak-speakers to integrate long-distance trade networks in ancient Amnon ia should be under tood not only a prerequisites but also as products of these exchange 1.ystems. Cultural patterns do exhibit a certain degree of autonomy and inertia, acknowledged in notions such as "ethos" or " tradition ," but ratl1er than replace environmental determinism with cultural essentialism , we shou ld ask how the cu ltural creativity of tl1e proto-Arawak may have constituted a re ponse to the economic niche afforded them by the opportunities of riverine trade. Instead of treating either ecology or culture as an independent variable, a more d ynamic ethn genetic perspective can illuminate the emergence of cu ltural traits in a regional and historical perspective, by focusing on the historical strucntres of regional exchange sy rems rather than ecology or culntre in themselves. Vie' ed rrom a regional perspective, as Hill (2002:229) observes, the proto-Arawakan territories around the lt;:ana and Guainfa Rivers in the northwest Amazon were actually "centrall)' located" in relation to the riverine connections between the Orinoco and Amazon Basins. If this was indeed the area in which Arawakan traits and institutions originally developed, it is not difficult to imagine a close connection between their cosmopolit:m 'ethos" (cf. antos·Granero 2002 ) and tl1eir role as long-distance traders. As this contagious cu ltural "ethos" reproduced and entrenched itself along the trade routes, however, it would be misleading to represent its diffusion in terms of the mo ement of"peoples." Considering the rapidity and the apparent ease ' ith which indigenous

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populations along the Rfo Negro were able to adopt the heengatti " trade language" and European utensils in the colonial era, as well as a great number of other Amazonian examples of language shifts and interethnic cultural adoptions (cf Aikhenvald 1999), we might find it puzzling that we should continue generaily to think aboLit Pre-Columbian cultural processes in term of reified "peoples" migrati n across the Amazon Basin. Nheengat1I is to th is day spoken as a first language by some populations on the upper Rio egro (Jensen 1999:127) . In view of its conspicuously Iive tine d istribution pattern, we ee that there is a di tinct pos ibi liry that the Arawakan language fumil y (that is, proto-Ar:nvak) similarly originated a a "trade language" among a wide net\ ork of bi- or multilingual societies in prehistoric Amazonia ( cf. Schmidt 1917). An influential and comagious "Arawakan" identity seems indeed to have been founded on a fui rl y coherent, if provisional, constellation of n·aits, including language and ceramic style , but this possibility does not allow us to dra\ any conclusions on population movements. Rather than continuing to reprodLICe the billiard -ball model of mi grating, essen ialized ' peoples" pu hing one another across the Amazon Basin and thu generating our linguistic and archeological distribution maps, we hould be as king ourselves what prehistoric linguistic and stylistic diffusion could tell us abo ut communicative processes within a p:m-Amnonian system of exchange rebtions.

Traces of Intensification

To dissociate the Arawakan "ethos' (Santos-Granero 2002) and its variou rylistic markers fi-om the notion of , biologically delineated population is not to stop asking questions about matetial processes in Amazon ian prehistOJy Whichever gene, they may have carried, the Arawak-speaking potter of the floodplains in the first miUennium B. . E. were engaged in a process of social transformation that also had major ecological repercussions. T he tropical land cape tiiJ carrie imprints ohhe e tran formation , even if they are generally invisible to the untrained eye. A fundamental example of such impri ntS are the dark anthropogenic" soils that in Amazonia are known as ten'a preta de indio and that occur along most larger river (Denevan 2001:104-110; Glaser & Woods 2004; Lehmann et al. 2003 ; Petersen Neves, o' Heckenberger 2001 ). T hese black (terra prcta) or dark brown (terra mulata) soils are less acidic and contai n more humus, nitroge n, and phosphows th. n sur rounding soi ls and are appreciated by both indigenous and non -indigenou farmers for their high fertility. Ten·a prcta occurs in parches or as contiguous zone along the sho res of major rivers, normally varying between l and l 00 hectares in extent, with an average around 21 hectares. ome sites, however, are considerably

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larger, measuring 500 hectare at antarem, 350 hectares at Juriti , west of antarem, and 200 hectares terra preta plus 1,000 hectares terra nmlatn. at Belrerra, by the Tapaj6s (Denevan 2001:105 ). ires arc typically elongated in shape and run parallel to tiverbanks, tor instance at Altamira, on the Xingtt ( 1.8 km x 500 111,90 he ·rares), and at Manacapurt't, near Manaus (4 km X 200m, SO hectares ). A recent survey maps almost 400 sites in Brazil alone (Kern e al. 2003 ). The deposits may be up to two meters in depth. Mo t researchers agree that terra pnta has been formed in connection with dense, sedentary, and extended human habitation, indicating more permanent and often larger communities than those that have been documented ethnographically in Amazonia.li It has been proposed that the black soils (terra P1'Ctn.) are the result of human habitation , whereas the dark brown soils ( terra muln.ta) are former agricultural land (Herrera et al. 1992: l 02 , ref. to Andrade; Petersen, Neve , e Heckenberger 2001:100 ). Term pretns are usually a sociated with artif.1cts such as pottery, whereas te1·ra mulatnsare not (Kern et al. 2003:73 ). The most fertile (black) "anthrosols" appear ro be the result of a continuous deposition of household garbage, ashes, feces, urine, bones, shells, and other organic materials. Te11'fl. preta begins to form at roughly the same time along the larger rivers in Amnonia a f~:w centuries 1~ .C . E . t Hupa-iya, ne:1r Y:1rinacoch3, by the cayali River in Peru, the oldest deposits of term jweta have been dated to 200 n.c .E. At the large site of A~utuba o n the lower Rio egro, term preta may have begun to form around 360 ll.C.E . ( Petersen, e es, & Heckenberger 2001:97, 100). In view of postubt~:d correlations bet\ een cer:1mics and linguistics (Heckenberger 2002; Lathrap 1970; Zucchi 2002 ), the abundant fi nds of Barrancoid ceramics at both Hupa -iya and A~utuba, as at other sites with te1•m pt'eta along the Amazon (cf. Myers 2004:91 ), could be mu tered in support of the hypothesis of an Arawak-speak.ing population on the intensively cultivated floodplains from at least 500 B.C .E. up to it identification as such by European . T he e anthro ols indicate a population den ity that could not h:1ve been sustained with the current (shifting) agriculntral practices of indigenous people in the area (Oii er 2001 :73; cf. Roosevelt 1993). T he evidence suggests that the floodplains of Amazonia in the fir t millennium B.C.E. experienced an unprecedented concentration of human population in conjunction with significam economic intensification and that these material processes were part and parcel of complex new social formations associated with what we have rderred to as an "Arawakan" culture and identity. 1other lasting imptin of complex social systems and economic inten ification in mazonia ' as made by the various kinds of earthworks that ha e been identified in association wi th Pre- olumbia11 settlements and

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culti ario n systems. The most conspicuous of these are the extensive drainage ystems that have been discovered in the seasonally inundated wet savannas (llcmos) of Bolivia , Colombia, and Venezuela and in other waterlogg~.:d areas (floodplains, deltas, coastal zone , lake shores, marshes) in the Guy:mas, high land Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and highland Bolivia (Denevan 2001 :215- 290; Parsons 1985 ). In these widely separate areas, a simi lar method of drainage was employed, the basic idea of which was to construct artificially raised fields to protect the crops from periodical inund ations. Such raised or ridged fields have been given various name in different parts of oud1 America, bur a comn only u ed , non-English name is the Spanish cawellmiCS, which was applied already in the sixteenth century by Spaniards in the Orinoco llanos and in highland basins of Colombia and Ecuador. It was also used at least by 1674 tor the f.1mous chinampas of the Aztecs in Mexico, which appear to belong to the ame agricu ltural tmd ition. The term cn.metloues, which refers to camel humps, was obviously invented by the paniards after 1492 but is used to this da y in the Berti area in Bolivia (Denevan 2001:217,220,237- 238 , 252 ). Raised fields had se era! functions in addition ro drainage, including soil aeration, red uction of root rot, increased nitrification, pe t reduction reduction of acidity, moi ture retention (in the ditches ), enhancement offertiliry by application of muck from ditches, facilitation of weeding, fucili tation of harvest, and increase in soil :md water temperatures (Ibid.:220 ). It was not until the 1960s that researchers began to gra p the significance of these methods of culti arion in outh America, following William Denevan's discoveqr and exploration of extensive areas of prehistoric cameiimtes in the Llanos de lojo in Beni, Bolivia. Earlier cholars who had mentioned culti arion on "mounds" or "platform, " in various parts of South America include Altred !etr.. ux in 1942 (having probably received the information from Erland ordensk.iold ), Max Schmidt in 1951 (Schmidt 1974), and Carl auer in 1952 ( Denevan 2001:218 ). Schmidt had perceived a connection ben een "mound cu ltivation' in the Llano de Mojo , the Tiricaca Ba in , the Antilles , Maraj6 Island , and other areas of South America, and auer al o recognized in the e mounds a pattern characteristic of the New World tropics. The only historical information on rhe ridged fields in Beni that Denevan wa able to locate, however, is a note by nvo Jesuits fi·om 1754, and the only modern researcher who had previously observed them personally was Erland ordenskiold in 1916 (Ibid.:217). The reason why these fields emerged from obscurity in the 1960s is that the patterns they create are clearly visible from d1e air but difficult to discover on the ground. Similar systems of cultivation have subsequendy been reported from the lln.uos of Venezuela and Colombia, coastal areas in the Guyanas, river valle~rs

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and wan:rloggt:d basins in the highlands of Colombia and Ecuador, the Guayas Basin in coastal Ecuador, the ,asma Valley on the north coast of Peru , and the Titicm;a Basin on the border between Pent and Bolivia. Their occurrences in the highlands as well as the lowlands undoubtedly reflect an ancient exchange of ideas between the two areas. T heir shapes and proportions vary, but there are indi idual fields in the Orinoco area that are over I kilometer long, some in Berti that are 25 meters wide, and some b)' the San Jorge 1\.iver in Colombia that are 2 meters high. Raised fields can occLJr over very extensive areas, particularly in the Titicaca Ba in ( 120,000 hectare ), the lower Si.ntt River and the Momp6s area between the Cauca and San Jorge 1\.ivers in Colombia (90,000 hectares) , the Guayas Basin (50,000 hectares), and the Llanos de Mojos in Beni (at least 6,000 hectares). In addition to ctmtelloues, the Beni area features a great quantity of artificial mounds, causeways, and canals. Most of these earthworks in the Llanos de Mojos are located between the Beni and the Mamore Rivers, tributaries to the Madeira. Ridged fields have also been repon ed fi·om forested areas SOLithwe t ofrhese l/rm.os (Denevan 2001:247). By multipl)~ng the known acreages of raised fields with experimentally e ta bli hed figure for productivity, we can estimate hm large were the populations they could have sustained. Experimental cultivation of raised fie lds in th~; T iticaca Basin has yielded up to 16 tons of potatoes per hectare. uch harvests w mid theoretically be able to sustain almost 40 people per hectare CLt ltivated land (Denevan 2001:220- 222, 272; Erickson 2000:336 ). Experimental field in Mojo have yielded 25 tons of manioc and 2 tons of maize per hectare (Den evan 2001:222, 252 ). Irrespective of the level of optimism in terms of nutrient ields, however, these estimates should always be tempered by the recognition that a ig nificant portion of the harvests wou ld have been u ed for fea.!ting and brewing manioc beer rather than pure subsistence . In fact, judging from historical and ethnographical documentation of indigenou consu mption pattern throughout much of South Ametica ( cf. , for example, Ga tin eau , Darby, & Turner 1979; G ldman 1966:86 ), we see that it is li kely d1at such "ceremonial" consumption may have been a major incentive for agricu ltLJral intensification in the first place. The domestication and consumption of manioc and maize in South America have undo ubtedly from the very start been implicated in the maintenance of social reciprocities ranging from local kinship obligations and rade partnerships to chiefly redistribution. The taste for manioc or mai ze beer should hu nor be underestimated in our understandings of prehistoric agricultural intensification in Amazonia. 7 gain, variou kinds of evidence suggest an "Arawakan" ethnolinguistic identity as the common denominator of these widely dispersed but apparently related cu ltivation systems. When the Europeans arrived, the llanos of Bolivia ,

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Venezuela, and Colombia as well as the Antilles and coastal Guyanas had for a long time been inhabited by Arawak-speakers. HistoJical sources mention mound cultivation using digging sticks among the sixteenth-century Taino of H ispaniola and the eighteenth -century Palikur on the northeast coast of Brazil (Denevan 200 1:227; Renard-Case itz 2002:140- 141 ). The ridged fields in the Llanos de Mojos of Bolivia were probabl y constructed by the Arawak-speaking Mojo using similar methods. Excavations of cnmelloms in Venezuda have yielded ceramics that Alberta Zucchi attributes to Arawak-speakers expanding north along the Orinoco after 500 c .E. (Dencvan 2001 :226; Den evan & Zucchi 1978). The Andean chiefdoms in highland basins in Colombia, Ecuador, and the Titicaca area all maintained close interaction with various ethnic groups in the adjoining lowlands, prominent among who were Arawak-speakers. Donald Lathrap ( 1970: 162-163, 169- 170 ) has interpreted the prehistoric societies of the Guayas Basin in western Ecuador as an extension, by way of an unusually accessible segment of the Andean highlands, of Amazonian cu ltu ral traditions. In his view, the camelloues of the Guayas Basin arc remains of the Milagro culture from 500 c.E., whose pottery (funerar y urns, appliqt1e decoration, and o on ) are reminiscent of antan~ m , Kondurf and other ceramic styles from the lower Amazon. Lathrap (Ibid .:l69 ) aJso associates the raised fields in the an Jorge Basin in Colombia with fi.merar urns with Amazonian affinities. Finally, he adopt Kingsley Noble's hypothesis that an earl}' population of the Titicaca Basi n, today represented by the ru and the Chipaya, were Arawakpeakers with roots in the lowland (Ibid.:72, 74). This view appears to have been endor ed by several influential linguist , including Greenberg, Suarez, and ligliazza (cf Campbell 1997:189; Ruhlen 1987:373 ). Clark Erickson has sugge ted that the earliest raised fields in the Titicaca Basin were built by the ance tors of the Uru around he beginning of the Chiripa period 800- 200 B. •. E. (cf. Denevan 200 1:273 ); David Browman (1980:117) ha also identified the Chiripa cultu re \\~th the ancestors of the ru and Chipaya. It would thus be pas ible to argue that, from the beginning of the first millennium H. .. E., more or less all occurrences of raised fi elds in PreColumbian South America may ha\•e been associated with an "Arawakan" sphere of influence. The apparently imultaneous appearance of ridged fields in areas as widely apart as northern Colombia and the Titicaca Basin around 800 ll.C.E. does nor support the notion of migration as a significant Factor in he distribution of this system of cu i ivation. The earl iest dates are from the Guayas lowlands of Ecuador, where Valdivia-type ponery associated with raised field sugge ts a time depth going back to around 2000 n.c.E . (Parsons 1985:155 ). Other dates from various parts oflowland South Ame1ica include the Beni area around 1 C..E . , the Guya nas 200 C..E . , and the Orinoco 500

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c . E. (Denevan 2001 ). Like the seq uence of pottery dares, this chronology should not be interpreted in terms of a process of mig ration but in terms of the d iffusion of an agticulntral redu1ique along a continent-\ ide network of wetland agticulturalists integrated by intense social exchange and a common ethnolinguistic identity. We might even uggest that the find · of riverside terra pretn. and marshland cn.melltmes are complementary manifestations of this same social network, each reflecting the conditions of both culti arion and preservation along d1e rivers and in the llanos, respectively. Rid ged fields suggest me adaptation of intensive agticultu ralists to wedand environments of a more predictable nature than the major Amazon ian floodplai ns, where the annual floods arc much more violent. However, as L1rnrap ( 1970:29- 30, 39, 160-161) has propo ed, the idea of artificially raised fields may well have been inspired by the natural series of sedi mentary ridges created by such floods along the rivers, since it wa precisely these natural ridges th. t were in tensively fu nned by d1e populations on the floodplains.

Conclusions The complex distribution maps tracing the linguistics, ernnography, and archeology of Amazonia represent a daunting jigsaw puzzle. Anthropolo:..ists and archeologists have long been struggling with the challenge of finding intelligible patterns behind the patchy indications of cultural diversity. ome have sought clues in the natural environment, others in historical processes or an auto nomous, semiotic logic of culture. In th is chapter, the analytical platform that I have chosen as a point of departure is d1at of regio nal and interregional e."Cchn.ti;!Je systems. Exchange systems are ecologically, historically, and cu lturall)' conditioued, but they simul taneously generate tangible ecological, hi tol"ical, and cultural c01Hequmces (Figu re 1 ). They d1LIS constitute a d1eoretical juncture where different scientific perspectives and level of analysis can be integrated in recur ive, nondetermini tic ways. The geographical d istribution f natural resources, territorial boundaries, and culn tral patterns of consu mption are all f.1ctors of significance for the development of exchange syste ms, just as, again, the trajectories of exchange systems arc of significance for environmental change, politics, and cultural identities. It is often precisely these three aspects of prehistoric social change-that is, panernsofresource use, power sn·uctures, and delineation of culwral boundaries- that we most ltrgently want to reconstruct, particularly in our attempts to understand the dri vi ng forces behind transitions to edentism and agricultural inten ification on different continent . In oud1 America, expansive exchange networks have previously been postu lated as underlying d1e diffusion of, for instance, the Chavin art style ( cf.

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Burger 1992 ; bthrap 1971 ) and the Qu echua language ( chwartz & alomon 1999:457· Stark 1985:18 1; Torero 2002 :91-105 ), neither of which is believed primarily to have involved demic migration. In this chapter, I have suggested that a similar interpretation can be applied to the spread of Arawakan languages and certain aspects of material culture and agricultural practices that tend to appear in conjunction with the m. This in terpretation can be based on a least si...x types of argument:

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I. It is well known that many and sometimes wide pread language hi ft ( for example, to heengattl) have occurred in Amazonia without involving migration. 2. The areas outside their homeland in the northwest Amazon that fi.rst adopted Arawakan lan guages were, with the probable exception of the upper Xing(J, already fairly densely populated by that time. 3. Arawak-speakers are historically and ethnographically known throug ho ut their range to have been active traders, often along he very river that have been postulated as their ptimar)' migration routes. 4. Arawak-speakincr groups are also historically and ethnograph ica lly known to ha e practiced extensive intermarriage with other etlU1olinguistic 'TOups. 5. Arawakan lanf,TtJages spoken in different areas often show m re structural similarities to their non -Arawak neighbors han to o ne another (Aikhenvald & Dixon 1998). 6 . Attempts to fi.nd correlations between Amazonian languages and genes have been conspicuously unsuccessful (Cavalli -Sforza, Menozzi, & Piazza

1994:341 ). The archeological evidence suggests that floodplains and wet avannas (llauos) in vario us parts of lowland South America in the fi.r t millennium 1\. ·.L;. experienced he emergence of a new kind of expansive and densely populated socit:ties characterized by extensive ethnic alliances and power hierarchies based on long-distance trade and intensive exploitation of both terrestrial and aquatic resources . The intensification of resource usc should be understood partly in direct relation to trade, as some of it seems to have been production for export partly in relation to a rising need for surplus production generated by the consu mptive demands of the el ite, the craft special ists, and the demographically more concentrated settlements. These "demands" should in turn be understood onl panty in terms of subsistence, because a ignificant proportion of the product would have been allocated to ceremonial consu mption of, tor example, manioc or maize beer.

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T his sociocultural pattern may originally have crystallized among Arawakspeaking populations inhabiting the l order zone between the Amazon and Orinoco Basins, an area that had long seen a lively trade and high density of interaction between different ethn ic groups. The tam iliarity with rivers and river traffic initially favo red the rapid expansion of Arawak-speakers downstream along the Orinoco and the Rio Negro, which was based as much on alliancemaking and the ethnolingu istic assimilation of other groups as on actual population movements. W'ith time, the expansive inertia of the "Arawakan ethos" as described above was m re r le dis ciated from d1e di tribution of biologically definable population . Succe sively more distant groups farther on along the waterways contin ued W gravitate toward me prestigious ne\ way of life and its rewards and obligations; became a part of the "Arawakan" network; adopted its language, ceremonies, and patterns of consumption; and finally served as its missionaries in a continuous outward movement that spanned a millennium and a half and most of the continent of outh America. This continent-wide network ab orbed and disseminated new culnn-al traits from the groups dllls " ra' akized" while maintaining a recognizable core of "Arawakan" teatures includ ing language, pottery styles, and ceremonial life. In several case , it is difficult to a certain whether traits were adopted from neighboring groups or part of an original cultural luggage. This Auidity or readiness to absorb new elements is a general hallmark of ed1nogenetic processes, but a more remarkable aspect ofA.rawakan ethnicity is the extent to which a recognizably coherent constel lation of core features has been able to reproduce itself over such vast areas and over such long periods of time ( H ill & Samos-Granero 2002 ). conclusion that suggests itself is d1at this particular con tellation of traits wa uniquely well fitted to the task of integrating the regional exchange )'Stem of prehi oric Amazonia . The process descti bed above has ecological as well as political and cultural aspects. Earlier attempts to account for prehistoric intensification in Amazonia and else\ here have generally cho en to emphasize one of these aspects a the expense of others. It wou ld be misleading, howe er, to imagine that the process in any significant way was "determined" eimer by ecological conditions, political aspimtions, or cultural idiosyncrasies. All these aspects should rather be viewed as expressions of a more general, socioecological logic. The process of " eolithization" that we can discern in Amazonia during me first nlillennium n.c .t;. is fi.mdamentally a 1'egimml Jystewic pltenowenoll in the sense that it is a crystallization of a given set of geographical, historical, and cultural conditions. This J)'stemiccharactcr is reAected, for in ranee, in d1e observation d1at "some dung new" occurred simultaneously in the last few cennnies ll.C.E. over vast areas of Amazonia, a manifestation of which was larger and more sedentary settlements

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with the capacity to generate ten·a preta ( eves et al. 2003:29; Peter en, eves, & Heckenberger 2001:10 1). Abrupt changes can also be detected in several sites in central Amazonia around 700 c .E. (Neves et al. 2004). When juxtaposed and correlated , such local cultural discontinuities may prove to be associated with the integration and transformations of continent-wide exchange networks. Thus, for inst:Jnce, d1e main period of consolidation of the Arawakan trade network appears largely to coincide wid1 d1e so-called Early H orizon (1000-200 B. C. E.) in the Andes, defined by the diffusion of the lowland-oriented havfn style across the Andean crest, and d1e most significant period of reorganization (reflected in major stylistic discontinuities over much of Amazonia ) ' ith the collapse of the highland polities Tiwanaku and Wari around 1000 .E. The set of relevant systemic conditions for such synchronized developments would include the geographical distribution of natural resources such as n u·des, hells, or green stone, as well a cultural constellations of symbolically and socio logically constitured demand for such products, fi·om the Andean demand for feather mantles and hallucinogenic plan s to the central mazonian demand for frog-shaped amulets (cf. Boomer 1987:34-36 ). Systemic conditions also include the specific geographic of navigable rivers and culti able floodplain , as well as d1e distances to, and the histmically given political conditions in, other parts of the continent such as tht: Andes and the aribbean. Finall y, we must count among d1ese crucial conditions d1e culturally pecific motive of traders and chiefs along the rivers, which necessaril)• implicate prehistoric political economy, kinship systems, and marriage ru les. Just to give a brief example of these last fuc tors, we could mention the use of green stone amu let and shell beads as brideprice among various groups in the Amazon and the Orinoco Basins (Boomert 1987:37; Gas 6n 2000:589 ). On all continents, ecology and cLimate have obviously influenced the cultu ral development of human populations and their opportunities to engage in long-distance exchange and economic speciali zation. But it is equally obvious, I would conclude, that geographica lly extensive S)'Stems of exchange and interaction have for millennia exerted crucial influence nor only on the formation of local cultmal identities, consumption patterns, and econom ies but concomitantly also on me ecosystems in which these cultu rally constituted economies operate. It is this socioecological recursivity that so often continues to elude us in our stru ggles to compre hend tl1e relation between nature and society. Notes l. l am grateful to the

niversity of Chi ago Pre s for permission to use a

much abridged and adapted version of my article " Ethnogenesis, Regional

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Integration, and Ecology in PrehistOJic Amazoni a," previously published in CmTwt Amhropology 46(4 ): 589-620; © 2005 b~· the Wenner-Gren Found:ttion for Anthropological Research. This work, as part of the Europea n Science Foundatio n E ROCOR.ES Programme OMLL, was supported b)• ti.mds fi·om the Swedish Research Council and the EC Sixth framewor·k Program me under Contract no. ERAS-CT- 2003- 980409. 2. The term TcolitiJic Rc11olution, or coiitiJizntioll is misleadin g in several ways, but the prehistoric proce c which it denotes--that is, the intensification of resource l iSC based on domestication of plants and animals, and the emergence of stratified societies--constitute real challenge for archeologic:tl research, not least because such proccsse on diflcrenr continents seem to share certain similarities. By "Neolithizati on" I here do nm mean the origi11 of crop cultivation, which b)• this time had already occurred in mnonia fo r scvc •-:~1 millennia (1-lcckcnbcrger 2002: 118; 1eves et al. 2003:34; OlivL~r 200 I :65-66), bll[ a relatively sudden intensification of agriculnm: in conjunction with ti1e emergenco: of sedentary, den ely populated, and stratified societies. It is important to recognize the gradual donK~tication of food plants such as manioc as a process distinct from, and generalll' much earlier, than " Neolidtization" in this sense. following traditio nal usage, however, amhorities such as Donald Lathrap have cha1-:~cterized the Amazonian dome rication of manioc as a first step in the "Neolithic Revolution" of the 1ew World (cf 1 eves 1999:225 ). 3. In indigeno us Amazoni a, in particular, many anthropologi ts have confirmed Pierre C lastres's ( 1987) observation that the standard response to any pretence of z

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7. It has lo ng been com mon among archeo logists to refer, like Ester Boserup, to population growth as the cxplanation of agricultural intcn ificatio n and increasi ng social complexity (cf. Lath rap 1970 ). Rather than view pop ul ation growth a an independent v, riablc, however, we sho uld ask which ociopolirical tJctors lie.: be hi nd the emergence of larger and more sedentary concentrations of population (cf Gass6n 2002:295 ; Peter en, Neves, & Heckenberger 200 l: l 0 l ). In Amazonia, it is panic ul. rl y cvidenr that community size depends on rhe abili ty of political and titualleaders to inrcgrare greater concentrations of people, whic h in tllrn relics o n ideological fuctors such as ethnicity, kinship, :1nd a hierarchical cosmolo&'Y· These idcologic:1l fucrors of inrcgr:1tion must nevertheless continuously be supported at a symbolic mtd material level through ceremonial feasting, general!)• focused on d1c consumption of manioc or maize beer (cf Gass6n 2003; Goldman 1966:86; R.enard· Cascvitz 2002: 128) and the redistribution of rare prestige goods (cf. Gass6n 2002:292; Heckcnbcrger 2002: I 17-118). The latter two activities arc archcologically rcflectcd in agricuiLu ral in Lcnsificalion and long· disrancc Lradc, rc$pcnivcly. lL is thus o nl y to be expected that sites with evidence of intensive agricu lture tend to be stratcgically located along riverine trade routcs (cf H crrcra et al. 1992 ; Kern ct al. 2003; Mora 2003 ). The ce remon ial co nsumption of beer is also abundantly reflected in finds of ceramic brewing and drinking \'cssds ( Lad1rap 1970:54-56, 85-86 , 88, 100-10 I, 183 ). Or11:c major investments in agricu ltural intensification and edemism have occurred , of course, a f..\ctor d1at could provide powerful incentives tor fi.rrther dcmogr·,1p hi c concentration i warf.ll'c (Heckcnbcrger 1996:203 ).

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Homborg, Alf; Cmmlcy. Carole L, Jan20. 2010. The World System and the Earth Syste m : G LOBAL SOC IO EN VIRON I Lcfi Coast Press, Inc., Wa lnut Creek. ISBN : 978 1598747454

CHAPTER 15

The Human-Environment Nexus: Progress in the Past Decade in the Integrated Analysis of Human and Biophysical Factors 1

EMILIO F. MORA

I. Introduction The Earth continues to be treated \\~th little thought for the futllre . More and more specie are going extinct. Wetland arc di appearing at a rapid rate, endangering tl1e migration routes of birds. Even our closest primate relatives arc finding less and less of tl1eir habitat left standing to ensure tl1cir survival. The story goes on. There is little concrete strategic policy tl1at incorporates tl1e development of a ustainable Earth system a a practical objective. Yet, tl1at is exactly what we must establish. Without a conscious exercise dedicated to the objective of ensuring the ustainability of the world's ecological systems, our days on this planet are numbered. Humans, as a distinct species, have been on this planet a very long time. What is not \~dely recognized is that in the past fifty years we have changed nearly every aspect of our relationship witl1 atme. Yes, the Industrial Revolution began some three hundred years ago, and we have been gradually increasing the effects we have on the Earth since then (Turner et al. 1990). And, in the past 10,000 years, in various times and places, we have had con iderable effect on the local and the regional scale (Redman 1999). But never before has our impact had planetary-scale consequences, and that i what we are ha,~ng n·oublc understanding. As a species we tend to think and act locally; however, for tl1e first time in human evolution we have begun to have a cumuJative, global impact. Our impact in the pa t fifty year ha no equivalent in our entire hi tory as a specie (see Figure 1 ). In the pa t fifty years we have een not only an exponential increase in carbon dioxide but also ozone depletion and nitrou oxide concentrations in the atmosphere, los es in tropica l rainforests, fi-equency of natural disasters, and species extinctions. The same can be said for fertilizer consumption, damming of rivers, water use, paper consumption, the number of people living in citie , and tl1c number of motor vehicle . AJtl10ugh ' e see a few case of nation and regions \·~til a growing middJe class and improved 231

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ystems. Ecosystem succession i conccpUJalizcd as dctcrmi11cd by two principles: exploitation, in which rapid colonization of recently disturbed areas is emphasized ("r-stratcgists"), ru1d conservation, with ru1 emphasis on the slow accumulation and storage of energy ru1d materials ("K-strategists" ). Empirical observations suggest d1at two additional proces e are needed to adequately explain ecological change (Gunderson et al.l997; Holling 1986). One i a stage during which tightly bound bioma · and nutrient that have become i.ncreasingly Ll ceptible to disUJrbmce--overconnected, in system terms-are released. The resulting debti is d1en reorgrulized in a series of soil processes, which makes the nutrients available again for a renewed cycle of exploitation . The complex system is reduced to detrims md men undergoes renewal through low-level energy enclaves, which are the seeds for rapidly expamling pioneer communities. uch an "ecocycle theory" is best approached as a concepmal fi-amework with hewistic value. It might be seen as analogous tO a "cultWrce of nature" that needs to be understood ( 1998:492 ). Hence, "integration of the human dimensions of .. . global changes with the physical -chemical-biological dimensions is dearly needed" ( Ibid .). But, as she notes, human dimensions of"scientific" problems arc usuall y given short shrift. As Lubchenco argues, apprehending "the currenr and growing extent of human dominance of the planet will requ ire new kinds of knowledge and applications ti·om scienc~nowledge to reduce the rate at which we alter the Earth systems, knowledge to understand the Earth's ccosy terns and how they interact with the numerous components of human caused global change, and knowledge to manage the planet" (lbid .:494 ). Unfortunately, even studies of the human dimensions of environmental problems, such as vulnerabili ty to climate change, have maintained a traditional science, or "environ ment first," strategy (National Research Council 1997; Stonich 2001 ). Thus they have f:'lilcd to produce these new kinds of knowledge and applications so urgently needed to understand, conserve, and manage resources. Lubchenco conveys the need to balance among "science/ environment first," "society first," and pol icy-oriented strategies, integrating "re earch across all disciplines" ( Lubchenco 1998:495 ). he cmpha izcs the importance of an understanding of society and, consequently, the in olvcmcnt of social scientists. furthermore, she calls for "more dfective bridge benveen policy, management, and science, as well as bet\ een the public and private sectors" (Ibid. ). Thus, not only docs Lubchcnco's call for a new social contract for science suggest a leading role for social scientists, but also her vision statement recognizes the vital role of applied work and an active engagement between academics and practitioners. More recently, Kates and colleagues (2001 ) published a manifesto, also in Science, proclaiming tl1e emergence of "sustainability science" and claiming to provide new otientation for science in response to the growing divide between science and "the preponderantly societal and political processes that were shaping tl1e sustainable development agenda" ( lbid.:641 ). Embraced by "international scientific programs, tl1e world's scientific academies, and independent networks of scientists," sustainability science demonstrates efforts by tl1e scientific community to respond to the problems that Lubchcnco presents. Notably, Robert Kates and William Clark served as co-chairs for the lational Research Counci l's Sustainability Transition Study, as well as f(>r tht: ational Research Council's Board of Sustainable Dcvclopmcm (with Kates as Vice hairman ), so they arc well-positioned to speak for the U. S. ational Academics. In Our

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Common ]oumey, they dcsc1ibe sustainabiliry science as integrating biological, geophysical, social, and technological systems research in place-based science (National Rcsearch Council 1999:280-285 ). Thus, susrainability scicnce "seeks to understand the fimdamental character of interactions betwcen nature and society" in a way that "encompass[ es] the interaction of global processe with the ecological and social characteJistics of particular places and scctors . .. integrat(ing] the effects of key processes across the ti.Jil range of scales fi·om local to g lobal" ( Kates et a!. 200 l :641 ). In addition to looking at the fi.Jll range of scales, sustainabitity science aims to understand temporal complexity, inclLJding lags between causes and effects and degrees of inertia and urgency of various processes; functional complexity, such as d1e fuct d1at certain effects may have numerous and disparate causes; and d1c.: multiplicity of views regarding " what makes knowlcdgc.: usable within bod1 science and society" (Ibid. ). Furthermore, Kates and collcagues have established scveral key issues, fi-amed as "core questions," for sustainabiliry science to examine: the d ynamism of nature ·ociety inteJ-actions, " long-term trends in environment and development," vu lnerability and resilience, whether "scientifically meaningfi.1l ' limit ' or ' boundaries"' can be defined for warning of 1isks, incentive structures, "operational systems fiw monito1ing and reporting," and systems integration of "research planning, monito1ing, assessment, and decision support" (Ibid. ). us ainability science is very much oriented to applied research and developing applications of a scientific understanding of nature- society interactions. Its consideration and core questions reveal this bias toward applied work, whic h is understandable gi en that sustainability science originated from experiences with sustainable devc.:lopment (Kates et at. 2001 :641 ). Thus, a major objective of sustainability science, coming out of d1e Fl'iibergh Wm,kshop mt Sustainability Science (2000), is to reconnect "scientists, practitioners, and citizens in setting priorities, creating ncw knowlcdge, eva luating its possible conscqucnccs and testing it in action. " To date, d1e major social science proponents ofsustainabil ity science ha c.: been geographers, especially Robert Kates and Roger Kasperson , both of whom arc deeply involved in human dimensions of global change research includ ing risk and vulnerability. Although sustainability science has yet to be addressed as directly from other social science perspectives, we argue that other disciplines are tcrti le and essential grou nd tor its development. In particular, the field of applied anthropology is perhaps most ready to involve "tl1e public at large to produce rrustwortl1y knowledge and judgment that is scientifically sound and rooted in social understanding" (Ibid. ). Moreover, sustainabi lity science recognizes the arbin-ary nature of the boundary betwcen scientific research and application, particularly t11e fuct that "the) tend ro influence and become entangled with each other" ( Kates et al. 2001:64 1).

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Sustainabiliry science offers a framework tor uniting the efforts of academic and applied social scientists. Yet, as an open ( multiscaled and multidimensional) and engaged view of science, sustainabi lity science also holds promise for a reconciliatio n of science with soc iety, in other words, with views of multiple discourses of sciences ( ader 1996 ), environments and environmen talisms (Little 1999), ecologies (Scoones 1999), and natures (Escobar 1999). As a matte r of fact, a two-page statement from the F1'iibe1;gh WM·kshop (2000) determined that by str ucture, meth od , and content, sustainabil ity cic.:n c must diftcr fundamental!)• from most science as we know it. Familiar approaches to developin g and resting hypotheses arc inadequate because ofnonlinca1icy, complexity, and long time l:lgs between acti< ns and their consequences. Additional complica tions arise fro m the recognitio n th at humans cann ot stand o utsi de the narure·society system.

Howe er, the reconci liation of science and society remains un likely if soc ial scientists choose to dismiss this potential paradigm shift in the sciences and do not actively engage in its development. To live up to its promise, sustainabi lity science mu t realize a new social contract, rather than simply rco1ient away fi·om a "science first" perspective. But rad1er than starting from scratch, sustainabili ry science purports to " improve on the substantial but sti ll limi ted understanding of nature-society interactions gained in recent decades' (Ibid .). uriously, ubstantial research on natu re- society in teractions in the social sciences, particularly political ecology, is absent fi-om discussions of sustainabiliry science. Yet, applied and poliqro rienred studies wi thin a political ecology fi·amework have made significanr pro"ress in addressin" the stated concerns of sustainability science in regard to land use and degradatio n ( 13laikie & Brookfield 1987), hazards and disasters (Biaikie 1994; Hewitt 1983; O liver-Smith & Hoffimn 1999), impoverishment and environmental destru ction linked to development strategies (Painter & Durham 1995 ; Stonich 1993 ), tourism (Stonich 2000 ), and protected areas (Walker 2005 ). As a matter of fuct , the literature of political ecolo gy is extensive enough to question whed1er susta inability science proposes anything new.

The Growth of Political Ecology and Sustainability Science Recently, political ecolO!,')' has become an in creasingly dominant approac h to the stud y of human- environmental relations in the contemporary social sciences. Ald1ough having irs intellectual roots in the earlier and cognate fields of human

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and cultural ecology, it has overshadowed its predecessors to a great degree. Although this trend is complex, it has b z

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human ecology and 6 percent (22 ) for cultural ecology. The first articles to appear using; susrainabi li ry science as a keyword did not appear until 200 1, but by 2005 made up 12 percent (48 ) of the total number of articles, th:n is, twice the percentage contribution of its predecessor cu ltural ecology. Further analysis of the search resu lts demonstrated that the majority of the journals, in which "political ecology" was used as a keyword, were classified under he broad subject categories of Geography ( 37 percent of articles), Anthropology ( 18 percent), Em~ ron mental rudies ( 15 percent), ociology ( 11 percent), and Political Science ( 10 percent). Specifically, he five journals in which he greatest number of these articles appeared were 71Je Ammls of the Association of American Gcogn1-pbcrs, 1hc P1'oftssiounl cognrphel', Humnn Ecology, and Hmnnrt O}lJnuiz.atirm. T he publication pattern fi> r articles using "sustainability science" as a ke word is quite diHcrent. In this case, the largest percentage of articles z w

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A thorough presentation of the imellecruaJ histor of political ecology is beyond the scope of this short chapter and can be found in severa l recent reviews (fo r example, Neumann 2005; Paulson, Gezon, & WattS 2003; Peet & Watts 1996; tonich 2001; Zimmerer & Bassett 2003 ). Political ecolos'Y emerged as part of a broader critique of cu ltural ecology, risk-hazard stu die , and ecological anthropology that began in the 1970s and stemmed fi·om the apolitical and micro-level analytic z w

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Political Ecology: Unresolved Issues and Debates Although political ecology has boomed, several continuing concerns remain unresolved that may affect the po entia] contributions of the fie ld , including mon: collaboration with sustainability scientists. Among th-.: most important of tht:sc issut:s is that political ecology has bt:come so d iwrst: in terms oftheort:tical perspectives, concept , and methodologies t.l1at it lacks unity as a coherent field of study ( ronich 2001 ). While political ecology may represent an emerging r-.:scarch ag-.:nda, neither past d-.:velopments nor r-.:ccnt trends arc theoretically integratt:d, and it rt: mains to bt: St:t:n wht:rt: existing colwt:rgt:nct:s and tt:nsions may lt:ad. Current trends and new directions in political-ecological research reveal significant tensions between material and idealist perspectives that are linked to possibly irreconci lable differences between scientific and poststructw-,llj postmodern positions. Anot.l1cr of the most persistent and serio us debates revolves around whether or not political ecology has become "environmental politics" rather than "ecology," that i , the fum iliar question, "Where is the Ecology? ' It is ironic that a fie ld that developed in part a a critique of"ecology without politics' has no' been accused ofbecoming "politics without ecology." Prompted by the critique, "Against Political Ecology," published by Vayda and vValters, mentioned above, this debate remains the most serious point of contt:ntion for both proponents and opponents of political ecolomr (st:e Paulson, ezon, & Watts 2003 and Walker 2005 for recent and contrasting perspectives on this issue). In our opinion , the unfortunate belief by proponents ofsustainability science that all political ecology has become "politics without ecology" is the most serious obstacle to the integration of political ecolomr :md sustainabi lity science. rinall , a serious criticism often made by more "scientifically" oriented researchers is that, because most political- ecological studies have tended to focus on und crs anding social and environmental changes ' ithin the context of local ecologies and histories, studies remain restricted in their applicability and unable to contribute to the creation of broader theories. While t.l1is is a serious concern, one of the major thrusts of recent political-ecological studies is aimed precisely at the 1igorous met.l1odological integration ofloca.l -levcl studies ' it.l1in broader contexts and va.tious scales (Neumann 2005 ).

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Enhancing Collaboration between Political Ecology and Sustainability Science

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Like sustainabi lit)' science , some (but certainly not all ) political ecologi ts ha e attempted to integrate human dimensions and bioph)1Sical factors into their research . In addition, politica l ecologists have been investigating naturesociety interactions for some timt.' --f.1 r longer than "sustainability science" has existed. Developing a sustainability science without building on political ecoiO!,,'y's accomplishments--and learning &om its difficulties---is tantamount to reinventing d1e' heel when the situation demands new and more integrated d1eoretical framework . Lubchenco ( 1998) points to the "urgent and unprecedented environmental and socia l changes' and the "immed iate and real challe nges" presently confi·onting science and human communi ties throughout d1e world. Likewise, the Fl'iibellJh Workshop report (2000 ) avows that the need for this " understanding of the complex dynamic interactions between society and nature" is urgent, "so that the alarming trend to\ ards increasing vulnerabi lity is reversed. " Because integrating research across disciplines is a major and common goa l of both sustainability science and political ecology, it behooves sustainability scientists ro take heed of political ecology and political ecologists to make their research known to------and seek col laboration with--sustainability science. A-; Lubchenco passionately contends, given the urgency and the dire necessity of addressing global social and environmental problems, aJl scientists, including anthropologists, geographers, and other social scientists who can bring d1c needed insight of balancing "science first" and "society first" perspectives, should find new ways to cooperatively engage in analyses o f nature ociety interactions. Perhaps a fi·uirful place to start building collaborations between political ecologists and sustainability scientists arc sn1dics of risk, vu lnerability, and resi lience, which are majo r foci of both approaches. In part, politica l ecolo"y emerged as a Ciitique of Iisk-hazard -vu lnerability studies, as discussed by Blaikie and Brookfield ( 1987) in Lnl'td Degradation nud Society, one of the f z w

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between vmious human groups competing for the diminished pool of a ailable resources." Thus, there is no conclusive evidence to suggest that the depletion of n:sources simply was a resu lt of population growth and a lack of ecologica l insights, such as implied by Ponting ( 1991 :7) when he states that the people, "aware th. t they were almost completely isolated tl·om the rest of the world, must surely have rea lized that their very existence depended on the limited resources of a small island. After aU it was small enough for them to walk round the entire island in a day o r so and see ~or themselves what was happening to the forests. Yet they were unable to devise a system that allowed them to find the right balance with their environment." Panting's conclusions about what the people "must" have reali zed arc not self-evident at all. Today, no logging company that is cutting down a rainfi.Jrest cou ld possibly defend its actions by referring to the gods or spirits as being able to bring back the trees, but when we talk about a premodern society such as Easter Island we cannot assume that ecological ignorance was implied by ' hat Bahn (2 00 1:65 ) de cribe as a' boundles confidence in their religion to take care of the future.' As argued by Nunn (2003 :226), "there is abundant evidence that environmental changes of extraneous causation fin·ccd island peoples to alter a whole range of lifestyle options" (emphasis added ). atton ( 1980:2 15 ) states d1at by the time that aster Island was first reached by Europeans in 1722, the popu lation " had declined to an estimated 3,000 or 4,000, fi·om a maximum that was probably at least t\\~Ce that [ ... ]. Mortality continued to exceed birth , and the entire population of the island was down to 155 persons by 1866." However, whatever major cri is there may have been previous! appears to have been over by 1722, and it was not as a result of d1is crisis that the people were drawn close to extinction but because of the Peruvian slave trade in the 1860s and the introduction of epidemic diseases (including those transm itted by repatriated slaves) as well as emigration to the islands of Tahiti and Mangareva (Maude 1981:194 ). As a matter of fact, for the 140 years bet\veen 1722 and 1862 there is no clear e idencc of any major decline in population . There might even have been a slight increase, because Maude ( 198 1: 192,194) estimates the number to have been 4,126 in 1862. The following year, after 1,407 slaves had been taken, the number ought to have been over 2,700, but it actually dropped to around 1,740 (Ibid. ). Mctraux ( 1940:43) writes that the reason for this was that repatriated slaves, who were brought to the island , "carried with them the infection of smallpox which in a short time decimated the rest of the population. The casualties caused b)' the epidemic arc said to have been in d1c thousands." At the least, the would have been around 1,000.

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Despite Ponting's statement that the people had not been able to fi nd a balance with their environment, it is quite possible that the population of around 4,000 was the average population size, given the environmental limitations after 1300 C. F.., which, afi:er all , allowed the cultivation of bananas and root crops as well as the breed ing of chickens. When Cook visited the island in 1774, he described its produce as sparse but "all excellent in its kind" and stated that the sweet potato was the best he had ever eaten (Beaglehole 1961 :349). In any case, despite the popularity of the ana logy with an isolated planet in space, no one could possibly know what would have happened if the people had been left alone on Easter Island . It is not un l1inkable that their chiefs could ha e negotiated peace among the competing factions or that a more sustainable agriculrurc and fishing could have evolved. Be that as it may, the point here is that although a numbe r of plant and animal species had become scarce or extinct, perhaps owing to human actio n and most likely\ ith climatic changes as aggravating f:1ctors, the big tragedy from the 1860s and throughou t the.: ninc.:tcenth century occurred because the island was 1w lou.ger like an isolated "planet ." The same could be said about auru. In their book Pamdise fm· Sale, McDaniel and Gowdy (2000 ) use this island as an example of what might happen to our planet, concluding that" auru is a window through which one can sec globa l trajectories into disaster. ... The story of auru is the story of aU of us." Is it? The reason why Nauru has become barren is that its phosphate (guano) has been exploi ted, to be used as fertilizers overseas, a fuct that is certainly not due to a local process in isolation but to conditions f.1r beyond it, that is, a demand on the world market. The "paradise" could be "for sale" only because there ' ere buyers somewhere else. Obviously, fi·om such a perspective, tJ1c analogy between Easter Island or aur u and the "Earth Island" would be apt only if extraterrestria l beings were introduced into the picture::.

Alternative Perspectives on Population and Carrying Capacity N unn ( 1993 ) has presented an alternative view of the relationship between carrying capacity and popui:ltion growth, according to which carrying capacity can be quite variable and highly mutable in response to climatic cha nges. arurally, the number of organismr--including human bcingr-that can be suppor ed in a given area depends in part on f:1ctors such as temperature and precipitation. If we consider people, their lifest:yle, exploitation of natura l resources, and other factors seen in relation to fluc tuations in world marker p1ices for their products and other changes in t11eir economic relationship to otJ1er societies,

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we realize that the "crisis point" is not at all self-evident. Similarly, it is because of a changed lifestyle and impons of fatten ing tood from overseas that obesity and cardiovascular diseases have recently become a tremendous problem among people on some of the most densel y populated islands in the world. On quite a few island , in fact, we find that as the population ha grown, people have not begun to starve but have acquired more and more fattening fimd to eat, because their relatives move o erscas and send money and goods (including food) back home (Crocom be 2001 :77- 79; Thaman 1982 ). If major ambiguities in our analyses are to be resolved, we must specifY if they are local, regional, or global "densities" that we arc analyzing, and how a population's resource territory is delineated, and one must avoid regarding the human population a being fL' z w

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the late 1990s (lTSTAT 1998:334, 339), whereas the remainder' as financed mainly by French aid. For Oceania, this is by no means an unusual trade 'balance." In 1998, fi >r in~tance, the Kingdom ofTonga imported nine times as much as it exported, in terms of monetary values, and unti l a local brewery was established there, the value of its dom inating export, bananas, was almost equal to the annual costs of importing beer ( Ma im 1999:344 ). One could argue that, with very fc, exceptions, the small island nations have very little hope of surviving economically only o n their natural resources. How little they can export is qu ite evident fTom the tact that one of their most important sourct:s of national income is stamps, many of which an: old only to philatelists and never used for mail. Starvation may not be a problem , but rathn the fact that many of the Oceanian peoples have acquired what Walsh and Trlin ( 1973:50) call "a champagne taste on something less than a beer income."

Geostrategic Location and Independence as Economic Assets If they have so tew natural resources, and if it is generally a matter of mo ing much more capital and commodities to the islands than away tl·om them, wh y then do the nited tares still keep ott am and American amoa as "unincorporated territories," why is Easter Island the "Fifth Region of hilc" with Valparaiso as capital, and why docs France still insist that French Polynesia is one of its "overseas territories"? The islands of the Pacific arc most of all of imcrcsr because of their geostmtcgic location among Asia, ustralia, and the Americas. It is important to the great powers just to be represented there, directly or (like the nitcd Kingdom) indirectly. One might wonder how this is possible in the "postcolonial era." The ~i mple answer is: money. As pointed out by Poirine ( 1995:45- 80), aid is actually often just anothe r word tor rent. 1\oney and goods are sent to the people on the islands in the hope that they will live like happy consumers witl10ut causing trouble for the governments that wish to be reprc ented there. T his could explain why American Samoa, with its strategic location in the central part of the South Pacific, receives five times more aid than docs the independent and much poorer western part of Samoa. ln the French terrirories, the aid per capita is 366 times higher than the average in developing countries (Ibid .). Conseq uently, during the whole post-World War II period, arguments for independence in French Polynesia have repeatedly been met with rhetorical questions about how life there wou ld become if France would aba ndon the islands and leave it to the people living there to finance everything tl1at tl1ey have become accustomed to (sec Daniclsson & Daniclsson 1986).

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There has been a sn·ong incentive for France to retain its islands as a nuclear testing f,'TOLmd. Thus, for three decades ( 1966- 1996 ), Frcnch Polynesia was characterized by the economy of the atomic bomb. The benefits of "geostrategic location" and " environmental load di placement' are a fimction ofremotene sand isolation . It is difficult to imagine any other reason than the remote and "isolated" location of the Marshall Islands for the United rates to pay them (in 1989) at least US 56 milLion for being allowed to deposit 23 million tons of waste there (Crocombe 200 l :32 ), for the nited tares and the nited Kingdom to have conducted 122 nuclear tests in Micronesia, or tor France to have carried out 193 tests on the Tuamo u Islands w the cast of Tahiti ( Ibid .: 590 ). There i nothing cl c about these islands that would make them particularly well suited for nuclear tests than their distance fi·om thc main population centers of France. T hese are the kinds ofcircumstances that generate problems of"environmental justice." If these tests were to pollute the environment and cause cancer among Polynesians, which many ctitics claim that they indeed have done (for example, Danidsson & Danidsson 1986; de Vties & cur 1997; Johnson 1984 ), this would pose no major pol itical threat in France, as it wou ld not affcct thc majority of voters there. for many years it was believed that the French nuclear tests would cease on ly if French Polynesia became independent. Hm ever international negotiations and Glasnost did result in the test coming to an end in 1996, but these islands arc still a part of France, and their inhabitants even have E passports. 1 independence a politically realistic option? One answer could be framed in terms of what has happened to other former colonies that already have become politically independent. In the 1980s, Bertram and Watters ( 1985, 1986) coined the H:rm liRAB----an acronym for migration, remittances, aid , and bureaucracy. These f.Ktors an: still often seen as determining the development of the Pacific microstates (cf Poirine 1998 ). These nations remain dependent, for thei r welf.1rc, on people moving overseas to earn mone~'· Money as wel l as goods sent home means a lot fo r the island economics, and aid is necessary for build ing hospitals and buying medical equipment. 1n addition, government officials can receive salaries, in a situation where there is so very little in the way of other jobs, especially for all those who ha ve lett the rural communities and outer islands to move to town or the main island. Today, we know d1at the picture is much more complex , not only because of fuctors such as tourism and the boom in pearl cultivation but above all, perhaps, because the island nations are becoming increasingly efficient at earning money fi·om their independence. Independence is often presented as a democratic right, but cry few people seem to have realized that independence in itself is an economic asset that

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can generate much more income than can any other resource in the islands (Crocombc 200 1:362- 378 ). It is only because of small countries like Tuvalu that Japan could go on killing whales, because when the countries around the Pacific voted about thi , 9,000 Tuva.luan had as much of a say as 1.2 billion Chinese. imilarly, because of its independence, Tonga has earned large amounts of money fi·om selling passports to rich people in Hong Kong who feared that they would nor be able to travel when communist hina took over (see Bain 1993: 160- 167). There have even been attempts to grant an Australian biotechn ical company the exclusive right to the Ton!,ran gene-pool, in order to provide it with D A and blood samples with the purpost: of improving research on cancer and cardiovascu lar di ca cs (Horn borg 2002 ). Many of the c countries arc now established as so called "offshore finance centers," "i nternational trust centers," or "asset protection centers" (Crocombe 2001 :363-367). For example, in Vanuan., although only 0.2 percent of the population were involved in business of this kind , such financial activities have been estimated to account for 12 percent of the GNP (Barrett 2000). In such "centers" one can launder money stow away capital, o r register ships to avoid certa in regu lations. Attractive domain names on the Internet can be leased tl·om these independent nations, who all have their own internet abbreviation (such as 1m for iue ). The " mall Islands tates Group" of ook Islands, Kiribati, auru, iuc, and Tuvalu has demanded that international airlines should pay fees every time they fly over the sea territories that make up the exclusive economic zone of these island nations in the cenmll parts of the Pacific. In the same vein, who would have imagined that Tonga would become number six among the ' orld's satellite nations? s an independent nation, close to the equator, Tonga could claim the right to some orbital slots in space, so as to lease them out to big TV stations with the ambition to reach icwers all over the world. Finally, to handle all these new ventures in lobalization, the island nations have expanded their state bureaucracies. Thus, the largest buildings in the capital of one of the poorest countries, Samoa, arc no longer churches (as used to be the case in most P z w

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epidem ic among the Greeks laying siege to the city of Troy. The pandemics of pustular fevers that S\ ept through the Roman Empire in the first centuries c. E. may have been smallpox and/or measles, originally acq uired tl·om livestock. As of lay, 2003 , it seems that the Chinese taste for civet meat has brought us ARS. Improvements in transportation technolosry made their most horrendous contribution m epidemiological history when they enabled humans to build tra nsocea nic empires and trading companies. By the end of Europe's Middle Age , several technologically adva nced societies of the world had developed watercraft capable of purposeful (not just accidental) and repeated transoceanic voyages. 0 "these peoples, the Europeans were the most ambitious commercially, politically, and c.: vangdica lly. Their squ are and latc.:en-rigged vessels were a good deal smaller and not more seaworthy than China's ju nks, but were owned and directed by men who were eager to pursue thei r ambitions outside Europe. T hey were also, collectively speaking, among the world's most diseased people. Europe's cities, specifically her ports, were hotbeds of infections from all over the Eastern Hemisphere. In the sixteenth century, Western Europe's ships created the first "globalized" disease pool. When does flu , to pick one disease, come into this picture> That is hard to say. Documentation on even the most visually spectacular diseases, suc h as small pox, is ambiguous. For a disease as vague and fuzzy symptomatically as influenza, tracing the path back to its original appearance is impossible. If we associate flu \\~th the domestication of pigs and chickens, then it could have appc.:an:d 4,000 years ago. One medical hismrian chose 1387 as the bird1date for d1e fi rst recorded flu epidemic in Europe. There are more respectable claim for sixteen d1 century epidemic~1510, 1557, 1580-but ' e can't be.: sure about d1e debut of flu until the eighteend1 century, when there were dlree unambi~ruous pandemics in Europe. One surfaced in srrakhan and Moscow in Apri l ofl729, rolled west through Germany and France ;Jnd England, and hitched a ride across to Boston , Massachusetts, in October of 1732 . It showed up in Mc.:x.ico also. This was the fir t of a series of fl u pandemics blamed on Russia. T here may be somed1ing to that theory, because Peter the Great, Russia's great westernizer, built St. Petersburg on d1e Gu lf of Fin land to increase contacts wid1 the West, which of course wou ld work in both directions. There wa another flu pandemic from Russia in 1732- 1733 that got all the way to 1orth and South America, and another, often credited ''~ th being dle first really big pandemic, in 176 1- 1762 , that spread fi·om iberia all over Europe. The pandemic of 178 1- 1782 was the most widespread and dmmatic for a century to come. Contemporaries guessed that two-thirds of Rome's

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inhabitants fell ill, three-quarters of lunich's, and e en greater proportions of all who lived in Great Britain. Morbidity was high, but morta lity was low, as in all the Au pandemics th u far. The nineteenth century was the age of population explosion and steam. teamships and rai lroads in practice diminished the size of the world. They globalized disease as they globalized commerce. The most famous examples of this globalization were the cholera pandemics, which rolled across and around the world. So d id Au pandemics, which attracted much less attention because their mortal ity rates were so low but killed man y more because their morbidity rates were so high. There were flu pandemic in the 1830s and 1840s, but these were mild compared to d1e big one in 1782. Then, for another generation, there was nod1ing more dl z w

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celebrants surrealistically S\ athed in white masks. Happily, the masks seemed to work. So d id the vaccines and all the other amulets that San Franciscans were clutching to shield themselves from sickness and death. In ovember, for reason of its own, the Au slackened, and the number of cases declin d dramatically. On ovember 21, every siren in the city shrieked the message that the moment for unvei li ng had come, and the masks came off amid general scenes of hilarity and triumph. A war had been won and a deadl}' disease defeated in the same month. Barely two weeks later, the number of new Au cases began to move upward again . The chiefofd1e Board of Health expressed the hope that d1ey were mosdy misdiagno ed cold , but soon an avalanche of new cases, 5,000 in December alone, confirmed the fear that d1e Spanish flu was back for round rwo. The most memorable features of round two in San Francisco were what can normally be expected of an anticlimax: apathy and fimlish antics. Medical aud1orities again trotted out their vaccines, but d1is time the audience shO\ ed little interest. The city government again made masks compu lsory, but this time against a stiff opposition of Christian Scientists, ci il libertarians, merchants who were worried that masks were discouraging Christmas shopping, and people who were simpl)' fed np \ ith masks, fin , and everything else. One of the last group sent the head ofthe Board of Health a bomb. It didn' go off. The most effective opponents to the masks were experts in such matters from various pu blic health depanmenrs. They pointed out that d1e rc seemed to be no consistent diHerence in morbid ity and mortality between communities d1at adopted the mask and those that did not. The San Francisco politicians noted, as one supervisor pllt it, d1at 99 .5 percent of the city's citizens opposed d1t: compulsory mask law. On Febrllary 1, 1919 the masks came off officially. They had come off in fucr some days before. an Francisco, a city of 550,000, had made widespread use of all known preventatives and remedies for influenza and pneumonia and had enforced ord inances for the control of the pandemic that were as stringent as any implemented in any of the larger cities of the nited rates. Still, housands of her citizens had f.1 1len ill and 3,500 had died. Irs record was not very ditTerenr fi·om that of Boston, the first city to be struck in America. In San rrancisco, as elsewhere, nearly two-thirds of those who died o f flu and pneumonia were between d1e ages of20 and 40. One is reminded of what Surgeon General of the United States Army, Victor Vaughan, wrote abol!t the peak weeks of the 1918 pandemic: "At that moment I decided never again to prate about the great achievements of science . . . . The deadly influenza demo n trated the inferiority ofhllman invention ... " ( Robert Kenner Films 1998 ).

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What does history tell us about pandemic influenza? One, that the flu ye shall always have with thee. Since 1700, we have had three to five full scale pandemics every century. Two, that flu pandemics do not correlate with large-scale human behavior such as wars. Three, long pauses without big pandemics--tor example, 1847- 1 88~re followed by big, plmishing pandemics. We haven 't had a big one since 1968. What does scientific and scholarly research have to tell us about the special mture of the 1918 Au? A great deal, but not why it was such a killer. The 19 18 flu was a singularity. A few astronomers, ir Fred Hoyle of the University of Wales being the most fumous, have claimed meaningful correlation between the "inferior conjunction ofVenus" and the first outbreak of flu in 19 18 . There has also been some talk of new viruses chiven into our atmosphere by comets. The U .. Center for Disease Control politely called the theory " intrigu ing." My one certainty is that pandemics will be with us fur into the future, whether AIDS or Al\.5 or something even newe r. Pandemic flu will certainly be back, no matter how many chickens we kill in Hong Kong or elsewhere to stop it. We need better globa l survei llance, and we have to lt:arn how to develop appropriate vaccines and distribute them fuster. We have to be ready with trained personnel in the right places, along with enough beds, and so on. The experience of the an Francisco Hospital in 19 18- 1919 proves that improviz ~

NINA E l EN MENGER A

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Since the 1990s the concept ofsocietal metaboljsm has gajned broad acceptance within the scientific community as a framework for analyzing society-nature interactions. The analytical tool used to operationalizc the concept, material Aow accounts, ca lculates the biophysical exchange relationships of a socioeconomic system, usually a nation state, with its natural environment. 'vVorld -system theory, in contrast, deals with global social change and the interaction between nations. It is concerm:d with the historical development of the world economy and its political and economic structures and processes. T he concept of societal or industrial metabolism was first formulated by Ayres and imonis (see A)rres 1994 ) and became established in the 1990s (Fischer-Kowa lski & Haberl 1993, 1998 ). It approache socioeconomic systems as systems that exchange materials and energy with the natural environment in order to build and maintain socioeconomic stocks. To operationa lizc the concept, rmnerial Aow accounts (MFA ) were developed to acco unt fur the material Auws between societies and their natural environment or between different socioeconomic systems. Economy-wide MF is modeled on national accounts but uses weight rather than monetary un its, that is, metric to ns. From MFA aggregated ind icators can be derived that calculate the environmen tal pressures caused by societies ( Dan iels & Moore 200 I ; EU RO TAT 1999; OEC D 2000 ). MFA is a well-established tool with a firs step toward methodological harmonization supported by the Statistical Office of the European nion , wh ich resulted in a methodological glride (E RO TAT 2001 ). Besides local approaches, which in recent years have become an emerging field of research (Griinbti hcl eta!. 2003; Kraus mann 2003; ingh & .rlinblihel 2003 ), MFA is at present mostly applied on the national level. During the past decade,

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several economy-wide material Am accounts have been produced, mainly for industrialized countries but also some for developing coumries. 2 Looking at the results of these studies, one overarching trend is observable: co11ntries tend to develop fi·om a metabolic profile where they are mainly exchanging materials with their natural environment to a pattern of incn:asing exchange of raw materia ls and other commodities with other socioeconomic systems through international trade. Thus, trade relations and integration into world markets strongly shape metabolic patterns and options for sustainable development of national economics. ln order to understand national material Aow patterns it is therefore necessary to consider the global processes that countries arc embedded in. World -system theory analyze cxa ·tiy these issues of global social change, obscr ing ti1c roks of and links among different countries and regions (Wallerstein 1974- 1980 ). The environmental problems generated by socioeconomic processes have generally not been much considered in world -s stem theor y ( Roberts & G1imcs 2002 ). Only in recent years have attempts been made ro integrate environmental issue . The e tudie hll ow those in economic accounts as far as possible, in order to maintain close ana logy between these two accounting systems. The units reckoned with in MFA are metric tons . Thus, material flow data can be compared to economic acco unts and provide a comprehensive biophysical picture of socioeconomic processes ( Daniels & Moore 200 I; EUROSTAT 200 1 ). A first step toward methodological harmonization was supported by E RO TAT and resu lted in a methodologica l gu ide ( E RO TAT 200 I ). Increasing globalization has been accentuating an international divi ion of labor, in \\'hich counniesspccialize in exporting pccific materials and commodities on international markets. This trend toward intensification of trade relations is visible in matetial flow studies (E RO TAT 2002; Weisz eta!. 2004). Increasing specialization within the world economy encourages relocation of matetialintensive production processes fi·om industtialized countries to less-developed countties in the global South, rhus improving the internal environmental perf(xmance of richer counnies. Some scholars have provided empirical evidence t(u· this trend (Fischer-Kowalski & Amann 2001; Giljum & Eisenmen«er 2004; Muradian o' Martinez-Ai ier 2001b; Rothman 1998 ). An increasing number of empirical studies suggest that current levels of resource extraction from nature and disposa l of ' astes and emission back to nature is not sustainable in the long run , particularly in the orthern industrialized coun ries ( EP 2002; WWF et at. 2004 ). " ustainable development" should thus imply a decrease in the total omount of natura l resources extracted and used . Through processes of outsourcing of materialintensive production, industrialized countries arc able ro reduce the consumption of materials used ' ithin thei r domestic territory and seem ingly "dematerialize" their economy without changing their lifestyles and consumption patterns. Developing countries, however, tend to intensif)• their

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domestic resource extraction without increasing their mate1ial standard of living. Analysis on a global scale shows that absolute ' demateriali zation" has not yet been achieved ( DeBruyn & Opschoor 1997 ). Studies on these topics were conducted by Muradian and Martinez -Aiier (200la ), who anal yzed North- outh trade patterns for nonrenewable resources; fischer-Kowa lski and Amann (2001 ), who compared the material imports and exports of selected counrrics in the core versus periphery; and iljum and Eisenmenger (2004 ), who discussed the distribution of environmental goods and burdens generated by North - outh trade. In the current discussion about "sustainable development," we face two important challenges: ( 1) sustainable usc of resources and (2 ) equal distribution among social grou ps and between generations. These goals are contradicted by a global division of labor, where some countries engage primari ly in resource extraction and bear the environmental burdens caused by these material-, energ)•-, and land-intensive processes but do not profit fi·om extraction either in terms of domestic consumption or of economic profit from exports. Material flow accounting can illuminate the e problems from a biophysical perspective.

World-System Theory and Its Links to Material Flow Accounting World -system theory (WST) \ as originally formulated by Immanuel Wallerstein ( 1974- 1980 ) and developed into a theoretical fi·amework with many research appli cations and different specializations among the involved scholars ( cf. Frank & Gills 1993; Gold frank 2000; Shannon 1996 ). Social, political, and economic relations among nation states pia an important role in WST analyses of social change. The adequate unit of analysis in these studies is therdi.>re not the nation state but the "lobal system (Goldfi·ank 2000; Wallerstein 1974, 1974- 1980 ). This world -system is characterized by a dynamic of its own, with special mechanisms through which nation states arc positioned vis -a-vis one another. The notion of societal metabolism conceptualizes the links between social and natural systems. Society- nature interactions can be conceived as material or energy flows or as the social colonization of nature, that is, transformations of natural processes for the purpose of making them useful for society (Fischer-Kowalski & Haber11998 ). Socioeconomic features such as cultural preferences, lifesty les, technologies, trade relations , and so on shape these society- nature interactions . MFA studies can add a biophysical perspective on the g loba l division of labor and unequal exchange among countries or regions in the world -system.

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Adding a Biophysical View to the Economic and Political Dimension of the World-System

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The world -system is intcgr:ncd by a single economic market but can consist of several political systems. Based on historical developments, Wallerstein's analysis diften:ntiatt:s t\ o kinds of world -sysrt:ms: world t:conomics and world t:mpirt:S. Tht: lattt:r art: intt:gratt:d by a common political systt:m with one;; political cort:. In a world economy, however, economic processes integrate a system that is more inclusive than any political srrucntre . Thus, a world economy inregr·ates different productive strucnlrt:S located in various geographical zone;;s as ' ell as several competing political systems \\~ th diftcrcnt degrees of power (Goldti·ank 2000). According to Wallerstein , a unique fearure of the current world economy is that it has existed for 500 years without transforming itself into a world empire. Waller tein thus distinguishes bct\vcen a political level and an economic level, on which diverse processes can occur independent!}' of one anotl1cr and where the relevant actors can be quite different. The economic level is characterized by a global division of labor, which generates a functional difte rentiation of the geographical regions involved. Trading partners cannot maintain their economic activities without t11e exchange that goes on bct\vccn them (W. llerstein 1974-1980 ). In addition to the economic level, Wallerstein identifies a political structure, which he calls the " interstate system" ( oldfrank 2000; hannon 1996). The interstate system repre;;sents a historically unique structu re, within which sovereign states are connected to one another bur no country is strong enough to conquer the other political centers. tudics of societal metabolism can provide a biophysical view complementing these two di mensions. Follm ing d1cir approach, social and natu ral systems interact and influence each oth er. Tl1us, economic and political processes arc dependent on and influenced by processes in natural systems (Fischer-Kowalski & Weisz 1999). In investigating socioeconom ic change and in particubr environmental problems arising fi·om social processes, it is important not to ignore the role of society-nature interactions, such as patterns of material and energy use.

Cores, Peripheries, Semiperipheries, and Their Biophysical Patterns According to world-system theory, the global division of labor leads to a distinction of countries into three categories of econo mic zones: cores, peripheries, and scmiperi phcries. ores represent countries engaged in hightech, capital-intensive, and high-profit prod uction. In these couno·ie , per capita consumption is high and cannot be satisfied only with local resources

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(Goldf-i-ank 2000; Shannon 1996 ). Peripheries, however, arc characterized by labor-intensive production using low-tech technologies. The main part of domestic production is located in the primary sectors, and most of the produced goods are exported to the cores. In return, peripheries import manufactured products fi·om the cores. Peripheries are exposed to intensive competition and are generally forced to accept low price and low profitS ( Ibid. ). Between these t\vo extremes, world -system theory identifies a thi rd category: the semiperiphery. ccording to Wa llerstein, semiperipheral countries represent a necessary structural element (Wallerstein 1974). On the one hand , semi peripheries are characterized by production that is t) pical of core countries, but other features arc more pcriphcml -likc. Trade flows arc maintained simultaneously in two directions, that is, to p~.: riplll:ries as well as to core countries (Goldfrank 2000 ). Accord ing to Wallerstein, the role of these countries is primari ly to prevent a pol itical polarization of the world-system. The three economic zones can also be characterized according to their trade networks as formu lated by Terlouw ( 1992:34 ): The core dominates trade in all sectors and has rdations with ever y other block of states. T he pcriphcr y is conncctcd to the intcrnational trade system almost cxclusivcly throu gh tradc with d1cly titled ReOriem the 19th Ccnrur)', a sequel to bis 1998 book ReORI ENT: Global Economy in he A.~ian gc. ReORI ENT sought to 1·eowrmize the hi..-tory ofthe eightemtiJ century, deeply flaw ed by we.rtem hubris espccinlfcJ' with ,·cgnrri to tbc uaturc n.uri tbc r·olc ofsocieties of the mst. Fmuk also sougbt to idcu.tijj mui correct the litrmy of erroneous couciusiom tbnt social theorists deri11cri from that tmforttmntcly biased histm·ical um·rntil>c. lu ReOrient the 19th Centur)', Frauk h11pcd to n.ppl)' additimml histm·ical n11d social them")' cmnctiJICS1 especinlfc1' Jllitb regard to the dynnmics that led to tl;e diff trmtiation of East allfi West No1·t1J aud Soutb. Tile paper Fmuk prepared for this couftrmcc Jl!as based on that lougcr lltiJ1111m·ipt. Fmuk n>ns oftm ill dttriug his .fiunl yen1-s, m1d mucb of what be presented here was teutnti1>e i11 uatttre. I made 110 attempt to complete his work. I simply edited tbis paper fm· leugth nuri clarity. Amoug tbc 110tabk imuH>ntious here is Fmuk's adoption of the couccpt of eutmpy to u>or!d system bistor_v. Fm11k decided that this u>as a fmitful di1·cctiou, thougb he had I tot yet wade the global historical applicatioiiS of sociopolitical entt·opy completely bis own. 1 would like to thn.uk tbc editors tiftbis J>oluwe for the chaucc to update ha11k s essay, as I nttcmpt to briug ReOrient the 19th Century to publication. Robert A . Dmcmnrk

This is a part of my book in the making, R eORIE T the 19th Ce11tury, which is a sequel to my previous one that stopped in 1800. In the first R..eOJUE IT, I argued that deeply flawed Eurocenrric historiography gave rise to deeply flawed Eurocentric social theory, and om: of the resu lts was a lack of understanding of the many ways the whole system influences its various parts. Subsequent analyses of the South and the East have suffered ever since. The "Rise of the 303

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West" was never the advance of one region over another from the level playing field of traditional society. The East had been significantly adv;mced as part of a unified global system, and the reasons for its decline (both the system and the East) and the subsequent rise of the West are particu larly important issues that have yet to be ufficiently addre sed. Part of the reason for the decline of the East and the rise of the \t\fest involve environmental aspects. The theoretical and analytical tools ro be u c.:d in this analysis arc the c.:

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1. The global political economy; 2. The study of possible simultaneous connections and the derivation of histmical events around the world at the same time ti·om a single global structure and dynamic; 3. The accumu lation of ever more triangles of divisions of labor and trade into an increasingly complex multia1lgztlm/ mttltilateml system, in which one angle of each n·iangle was located during this period in B1itain, thus permitting it to de1ive benefits and most of its development fi·om this privi leged position (and not fi·om any unique or internal attributes or advances)· 4. PIJysical/ecological rmd social entt·opy, generated by economic growth and displaced from center to periphery. This displacement of entropy permits greater order and dcmocrac than would othcn isc be possible in indusn·ial core regions and imposes greater disorder, including accelerated ecological damage, war, civil strife and political conflict, onto those who are systematically obliged to absorb that entropy.

ReOrient the Nineteenth Century I join Kenneth Pomeranz when he argues that we need ro rethink the nineteenth century, which he observes has been abandoned by a whole generation of scholars. John F. Kenned y told us that "the great enemy of truth is very ofi:en not the lie--deliberate, contrived, and dishone t--but the myth--tJer istem, persuasive and unrealisrjc" (Frank 1998:vii ). If that is true, then it has certain !}' been persistent in the literature represented by-to meld the titles of two book~ The fltttrc and Cames of the Wealth and Po vert)' of 1 ations (Landes 1999; Smith 1937 [17761 ). For the received and still persistent mythological "explanations" of the most important changes of d1c nineteenth century, "the Great Divergence" (Pomeranz 2000) of East and West that emerged out of the structure, function, and transformation of the world economy, are altogether wide of the mark. It was this global economy that really gave rise to a "single worldwide system which also provided the transfer, along round about routes

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... [of wealth and resources] to ... particularly, the U nitcd Kingdom ... by the much less adeq uately understood system of multilateral settlements of all classes of international account:;" (Hilgerdr 1942:6, 9 ).

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My two main analytic guidelines arc multilatcrality and entropy. In shortcur summar y, we may regard location in the mu ltilateral system as the prime detcrmimmt of how much benefit or disbenefir a person, group, sector, region, or country can derive fi·om its social -structural and geographical position in the world system or global economy. Elsewhere I have rderred to this as the importance of Location, Locn.tion, Location (Frank 2001 ). Entropy may be regarded as the cost of participation in the s tem and its economic production and growth . Displacement of entropy then is the transfer or export of this entropic cost fi·om here to there, and in d1e world fi"Om the rich North that generates or causes the generation of much of it to the poor South, which is obliged to absorb this displaced entropy at its own cost. The two processes of deriving benefits and absorbing cost are in turn related by the same multilaterality, through which not only the benefits are spread and derived but also the costs are channeled and absorbed.

Entropy Generation and Dissipation Dissipative structures ... rcfcr(s) ro the ability of co mplex systems ro tra nsfer their enrropic costs to ot her parts [of the system ]. ... [Wc ] lose sight of the fu,t that every system in rhc so ·iaJ order must be paid for by someone, omewhcre, so meti me. This essential reality is hidden fi·om our view because hu m:m beings arc very sk.im"Lil ar exporting the cots of their own behavior to orhers via dissipative structures ... [ rhrough which ] dissipation of entropy occurs when one system has rhc will and the ability ro force orhers ro abso rb the costs of irs own growth and prosperity ... [i n parr ] thro ug h impersonal marker mechanisms so he victims on he peripher)' [colonial or orherwisej arc nor aware ofwhar is being done to them. (Robert P. Clark, l mperatiJJc 1997:5, I 0 )

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The systems in which dissipation occurs have been studied especially by Prigogine & rengers (1984 ) and colleagues, who have analyzed dissipative structures of open dis-equilibrium S)Stems. Straussfogcl (1998) applies this theo ri zation to the world system, as Adams ( 1982 ) does to the British Empire. The common fuctor is that broken -down (expended ) energy and socia l disorder arc dispi, ced fi·om a center to peripheral regions and sectors. More important still in a nonlinear/ nonequilibrium system is that critical points of

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dis-equilibrium can lead to bifurcations in the paths that may be taken, such that small changes can lead to large d ifferences in the future. That is because taking and proceeding along one path in a nonlinear :;ystem can be an irreversible act, foreclosing the option of ever going down some alternative road . The major question for us is whether "the reat Divergence" in the nineteenth century was such a point and situation, and if so , when , wh y, and how? As per the epigraph above , mu ·h of the social order and the structural complexity of the wea lthy can be maintained o r even be further elaborated if the y can transfer the d isorder that thqr generate to others who are obliged to absorb it, and who thereb y become less order!}' than they were before. This process of dissipation occurs along lines that arc both more and Jess easily visible. The mon: visibk ones arc unidirectional. A glaring but illustrative example is the export of nuclear waste subprodu cts fi·om the nuclear power stations of Europe and Japan , which have relatively much power, to Afi·ica, with little power (in more than one sense of the word ), which is paid a pittance (for the orth but not for the South ) to absorb this entropy. Another, perhaps less obvious but more frequent example is how the consequences and costs of g lobal warming generated by the burning of coal and oil by the onh (much of it now imported fi·om the outh ) are in turn (re-)exported to the South. There they cause flooding, soon perhaps also ro submerge low-lying areas into the risi ng sea, and massive destruction of virgin rainforests to maintain industries and consumption in the North. These examples become even more glaring, of course, if part of the hig her income in tl1e North i the result of prior or present transfers of income fi·om the outl1. H owever, displacement of entropy fi·om orth to South :1lso occurs :1long mu ltilateral paths and networks. These may be less obvious or even invisible, but they are even more used and important. The transfer of entropy fl·om one area to another can go via one or more third parties. As Folke Hilgerdt ( 1943:400) put it, " the development oftl1e system of mu ltilateral trade . . . was simila r to the unfolding of a fun: more and more countries became involved, and their insertion took place in a given order, each country being further way from the nited Kin gdom on the transfer routes ro that counn·}' fi·om its debtors.' I \ mild add that countries need not have been inserted one by one into Britain's charmed circle. They also entered as participants of already previous!}' existing bi- or multilateral sy tems that themselves were incorporated into tl1c worldwide web . sophisticated discussion of cnn·opy and its global importance as a fundamental part of economic growth an I industrialization is to be fi>und in Al f H o rn borg' s The PoJJ!cr of the Machiuc (200la ). He stresses that machines, and industry in general , arc not o nl y technical but also social phenomena. First

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to build and then to run a machine requires socially provided inputs of raw material, land, fuel, and labor energy that represent greater amounts of order than the machine\ output. Yet the machine can be kept running only if its products can bt: sold at a price that is higher than that of the inputs it uses. According to the econd Law ofThermodynamics, the mach ine's productive process must generate entropy, disorder, wh ich must somehow and somewhere be disposed of. It i in the means of this disposal that machine production and products diff-er fi·om organic biomass; the latter uses ultimately limitless solar energy that it converts into heat, which is dissipated into the universe. Industrialization introduced mechanical production on a growing scale that is based on fossil fuels, first coal and then oil and gas. ot only arc these limited and nonrenewable, they also generate entropy that must remain ' ith us in the form of pollution and environmental degradation . However, the locus of that entropy need not, indeed cannot, remain the same as that of the machine itself. Much of the input into the industrial process comes from nonindustrial regions, and much of the entropy is exported back to them, along with some usefu l industrial products. T he mechanism that performs these transfers of negative entropy ( exergy) from nonindustrial to industrial sites, and re-exports the entropy/disorder generated back to them or to others, is the world market, which operates on the basis of differentia ls in fuctor prices between locations. For the pro -ess m operate, the price differentials must favor the (owners of) the machine at the expense of those who, through unequal exchange, supply the wherewitha l for the machine to be built and operated. And this world market mechanism is often supplemented by the exercise of political-military power. Since the sum of the inputs into the machine, that is, to industrial production, contains more order (less entropy ) than its outputs, industrial growth and "development" generally are not selfcomained but an: the result of the inward n·ansfer of exer z w

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technology with, for example, clean green but more expensive informatics. Indeed, raising the income of the Rest to that of the West would require three extra planets (Ibid. :31 ). T hus, capital accumulation, technological development, and economic growth in some parts of the world system are "organ icall}' linked to underdevelopment and environmental deterioration in others" (Ibid .: 33). Therefore, Hornborg argues, GNP in one place is really a measure of its terms of trade with another and " reAects a con nrry' position in socially negotiated global exchange relations" ( Ibid.:32 ). So that is where three major analytical categories and procedures con nect in the present work: ( 1) the global economy and market; (2 ) its multiangular and mt~tilateral structure and organization, whereby benefits and the lack thereof an.: um:vcnly distributt:d around the glo be; and (3) the entropy costs that arc generated by those most favorably placed in the "center" and displaced out to the "periphery," which is obl iged to bear the costs of absorbing that entropy. particularly important entropic contribution to "the Great Divergence" has been analyzed by Davis (2001) under the subtitle El iiio Fmnittes and the Malting of the TI~i1··d Wm-ld. He discusses uneven climatic changes and the way agricul tural societies that we re advantaged by them used these events to exploit------a nd in effect displace some of their own entropy to--the disadvantaged. More precisely, some advanced and others suffered from the single strucnm: and process ofg lobal development. Those who ' ere disadvanraged incl uded m uch of Latin America up through ~exico , North, outh and East Afiica, and large parts of India , hina, and probably Russia. The same El iito cycle simultaneous!}' fuvored more northerly regions, especially the United tares' wheat-producing Great Plains, with additional rainfall . This bestowed on them both greater absol ute as well as rdative advantages in the global economy, and political bargaining pm er in the world. Davis writes that Ame1i can "rain production " is typically in meteorologica l antiphase with £1 iiio droughts and crop fa ilures in India, north China and (most likely) the Russian chenwzem belt. This potential to relieve the world's hunger during period of synchronous global drought wa also a partial solution to the problem of overprod ucrjon in the Plains stares" (Davis 200 I :26 I ). T hus, the simultaneous deterioration of agriculntre and increase of poverty in what was becoming the Third World , combined wid1 an agricu lntral boom in the United States, radically altered political-economic relations between o rth and South. The orth did not simply advance because of a generous climate but took advantage of the Sou th . In Afi·ica, a missionary observed that "Europeans track fumine like a sky fidl of ultures" (lbid.:l39 ). Davis quores another late nineteenth -century observer who reported d1at " people saw a

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connection benveen the disaster of drought, fumine , and disease on the one hand, and the advance of European political power on the other" (Ibid.: 140 ). In " ,o lon ial Asia: Sta rvation [' ]as a Strategy" (Ibid.: 193 ). In India, fum ine was deliberately aggravated b}' British colonial policy: the British overlord Cu rwn was "a rchi tect ofbrilliantly o rganized fumine" (Ibid. :l64 ), which was then used to extract greater concessions. In the Ph ilippines, "the Americans . .. exceeded even the cruelest panish precedents in manipulating d isease and hunger as weapons against an insurgent but weakened population" ( Ibid. : 198 ). In Brazil, four successive droughts benveen 1888 and 1902 devastated subsistence and sugar production in the o ld Northeast, whereas all metropolitan and Brazilian economic and state interc ts were concentrated on the new coffee boom in Sao Paulo in the South . In other words, the orth displaced its growth and adjusonent costs to the South . Many states we re fiscally weakened by increased military expenditu res, in Ind ia throu gh the infamous "Home Charges" that financed the British-led but Indian -manned colonial army, and in China for defense against further Western incursions. For these and other reasons, previous state intervention to stock granaries for secure fod supplies and control their prices, as wel l as large and small-scale hydraulic management tl1rough maintenance of irrigation canals, had to be abandoned for fiscal and political reasons at the very times that El iiw made them more essential than ever. In hina, the First Opium War was fought at the same time as three successive Aoods, and the Second Opium War followed the long Taiping Rebellion that in turn followed har est disasters. From the 1860s onward, hina embarked on the "Sclr: Strengthening Program" of especially military expenditures, which successfully competed with the increased expenditures on agriculture that would have been necessary in o rder to confront the coming natura l disasters from the exceptionally severe El Nirw phase · during the last thi rd of the century. Today, the most glaring and yet least noted instance ofentropy displacement i surely the military-industrial complex against which President Eisenhower warned in his " Farewel l Speech." It is probably the world's most polluting industry. It is also the example pnr ~Yccllcncc of entrop}' displacement. Military production by industrial powers uses local and imported raw materialr--and often brain-drain pcrsonncl--m huge economic resource oppornmity and environmental costs to produce "goods" (more properly "bads" ) of no social utility whatsoever. Many of these arc then exported back to the suppliers of the original fuels and raw materials, who pay f z w

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export foodstuffs and other raw materials to the rich so that they can import arms that they wou ld not need if they did not fuce so much scarcity-based conflict. Entropy is thereby displaced from the rich to the poor. There is a d isplacement of sociopolitical entrop}' from the richer, when they sell their military hardware and train ing, to the poorer abroad, who import these arms and use them to kill one anothe r in an ever more chaotic "Third World," while the orth is thereby helped to better afford "democratic order" at home. Even so, the arms producers keep enough of them for their own use to enforce and even further extend th is exploitative and en tropic world ( dis)order, which yields benefi s for themselves at enormous cost o everybody else. This is called " prcscr ing human rights, fi·ccdom, democracy, and civilization," and most recently also "combatting terrorism ." In the nineteenth century, this Western displacement of ecological and social entropy to the rest of the world was called the "civilizing mission" or the "white man's burden." Hornborg details some of the mechanisms at work, but he docs not try to show us how tl1ey worked globally in the nineteenth century. This paper is part of a larger attempt to begin this heretofore neglected task, in the absence of which it has been quite impossible to offer any sensible and sensitive accounting for "the Great Divergence." From Triangles to Multiangular Multilaterality Already three decades ago, I wrote under the title Mu.ltilnten-d Merchandise Tmde lmbnlrmces nud U1tc1'm Ecmtomic DeJJclopmmt (1976 ri9701:407-

408): Contr:~ry ro ord1odox international tr:1de and national development rheoq•, rhe uneve n developmenr of world capitalism was not accompanied

b)' balanced tr:~de (or growth) but rested in fuct on a limdamental imool:mce ofinrernation::d trade between the developing metropolis and the underdevdoping, ..:olonialized, countries. Ex..:ept for the years of worst depression in the metropolis, the latter had a consta nt but growing trade deficit and the underdeveloped countries a trade su rplu s during d1c classica l imperialist period of world capitalist devclopmcm at t he end of the nineteend1 and the beginning of the twentieth centulies. The almost cxclu h•e theoretical and empirical imerest in d1e balance of payments, ;md obsession with d1c mechanisms that make it balance, has ca t a ' vei l of money" over the underlyi ng merchandise im!Ja!rmce oftm de whose role, wh ich we believe is fimdamcnral in the process of uneven capitalist development and underdevelopment, has rem:1ined all bur un-perceived

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__ To su mmarize ___ the secubr excess ofd1e underdeveloped countries' exports over imports has throughout this period made a fundamental conn·ibution to the accu mulation of capital, technological progress and economic development of the now developed countries; and d1c generation of this exports surplus from the now underdeveloped countries has there developed the mode of production which underdeveloped Asia, Africa and Latin America.

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The study of these imbalances of trade and settlements on a world scale has been consid ered by very few, including Hilgerdt (1942, 1945 ), S. B. Saul ( 1960), and (through mentions in textbooks) Cond liffe (1950) and Kenwood and Lougheed ( 1971 ). There is also my 1976 sn1dy of Hilgerdt's data in 1be 1 · etworll of World Trade. Alas, that work has on ly scattered estimates for 1913 and earlier, but his sequel lndustrializ.n.tirm nud Frn-eign Tmde ( 1945 ) has a ~ew more, on which I shall draw below. However, taking advantage of the more recent literature on Ecologicn.l Economics (Martinez-Aiier 1987) and related work, this kind of study of real merchandize flows can perhaps now al o serve as a basis to analyze their absolute and relative contents of energy (Adams 1982 ) as well as the generation and d isplacement of entropy. The multilateral or multiangular structure of the global economy permits those at privileged, angular locations to exact tribute or rent fi·om the system as a whole and in particular fi-om those in underpri vileged positions----the role of the latter is to produce and transfer wealth and income to the privileged ones. In the nineteenth century, Great Britain came to occupy this position of privilege; and that is what made it "Great"---much more so than any qualities or productive or other capacities of its own_ Since then, the nited States has replaced Britain in d1is position of greatest privilege, and thnt rather d1an its productive capacity accounts for most of its weald1 and income. To better visualize this mLlltilateral system, imagine a global game of musical chairs in which n players sit in a circle around the globe. Relations among the players arc also established criss-cross. Some chairs arc visibly better or worse, but their quality is in only small part due to the "essence'' of their construction. Instead, the goodness or badness of the chairs is measured substantially by tl1ei r location in the global circle, which generates much of the observed and/or real quality of the chairs. ow imagine, moreover, that this game of musical chairs is played, as arc most real-world games, on a twt " level playing field_" When the music plays, d1e playe r scuttle about. They also move along paths that emerge out of previously established bi - but also multilateral strategic or simply tactical relations of al Liance and conflict. The alliances conflict among but also \\~ thin tl1emsclves. Or the other way around, the whole game is a Hobbesian war of

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all against all in which, even if each player is only out ~or him- or herself, the fo rmation and membership ofbi- or m ultilateral alliances can be of advantage to members relative to those who play on ly on thei r own. So now everyth ing is set up for the cyclical and te mporary ces ation of the music. The hu tfle result in somebody being likely not only to get a better or a worse chair but to get none at all, whi le the rest of d1e players end up going around a!:,' z w

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Figure 2 • World pattern of settlements 191 0 [Editor's note: adapted from Figure 2 in S. B. Saul's Studies in British Overseas Trade 1870-1914 (1960:58) . Frank added China and its settlement payments to the United Kingdom but not the direction or amount of payments from/ to India or the U.S.A).

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were mu ltiple u·iangles that connected Britain, their American colonies, France and pain and their colonies, the Caribbean and Africa, as illustrated in Frank ( 1978 ) and elsewhere. What they all had in common was that they ultimately had an angle in Britain and then in orth America, and that they re ted fundamentally on the slave trade and the si lver trade that helped finance much of the rest . Tht: obvious---if ofi:en sti ll insistently denied--unequal and polarizing consequences of the triangular and slave trade, slavery, plantation agricu lture, mining, forestry, cod fisheries, and so on were highlighted among od1ers by Marx in his volume Ill of Capital and by Eric Williams (later Prime Minster of Trinidad and Tobago) in his n.pitn.lism ami lavel')' ( I944). Bur Kenneth Pomeranz (2000 ) and to a lesser extent Frank ( I 998 ) analyzed the concomitant "ecological exchange" tluough which West Europeans wen: able to consumt: much more at less ecological cost at home by displacing them to Eastern Europe and ro Africa and the Ame1i cas, at the cost of their indigenous populations, soil, and other resources. Beginning in the late eighteenth and flourishi ng in the nineteenth century, the Atlantic triangles were joined by the Opium Triangle between China, India, and Britain . Tht: literature on this arrangement is best represented by Carlo Trocki in Opium, Empi1·e rmd Global Political Economy ( 1999). However, the emphasis is as usual on how op ium production in India yielded Indian and British expatriate remissions to Britain that were generated by hinese imports of opium in exchange for most!} sil er re-exports of what C hina had imported fi·om Mexico and the ni ted tates. The ravages of opium consumption have received considerable attention a a social aberration, but not as a displacement of entropic costs fi·om Britain. In Asia, opium production required the conversion of land and labor fir t in Bihar and then in western India, Southeast Asia , and later in Szechwan. It requi red the dedication of terrestrial transport , shipping, finance, and so forth to the commercialization of the drug. It had serious medical and socia l consequences to r consumers and their fumilies in C hina and Southeast Asia. It debilitated the finances and thereby the infrastrucn1ral and social spending of the Ch in ese state through the drain of silver. It was the state's attempt to stop this drain that led to the Opium Wars and their consequences. All these events appear in a omewhat different perspective if they are viewed as the en tropic cmmterpar of British industrial devclopmcm. Tlu·oughout tl1e nineteenth century, more and more triangles joined d1e ever more mu ltiangular, mu ltilateral, and complex network of world o-ade and its di vision of labor and spoils. Britain remained the a1 ex at whic h all these u·ianglcs joined and ' as e entually joined by tl1e nited States. The stages

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of development progressed through the addi tion of more and mo re triangles to \ hat became a complex system of multiangular and mu ltilateral trade and payment imbalances. The analysis of the entropic exchange between regions in the developing North and the underdeveloping South can throw additional li ght and perspective o n the system as a whole and the dive rgent paths of its various parts.

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References

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Abel , T. 1998. Complex adaptive yst..:m , evolutionism , and ecology within anthropology: Inrerdisciplinary research for understanding culmral and ecological dynamics, Gcm:!Jin Jormm/ of EctJiogicnl Anthropology 2:6 29. - - -2000. Ecosystems, sociocultLJr.1l syst..:ms, and ecological-economics fi1 r understanding d..:vclopmcnt: The case of ecotomism on th..: Island of Bonaire, .A. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Florida. - - -2003. nderst:mdi ng complex human ecosystems: T he c:1sc of ccorourism on Bonaire, Comcnmtimt Ecolog.v 7(3): I 0. Abel, T., and}. R. Stepp. 2003. A new ..:cosys[(;ms ccolO!,'Y for anthropology, Comcnmticm Ecology 7(3): 12. Abrams, E. M. , A. Fr..:t..:r, D.}. Rue , and}. D. Wingard. 1996. T he role of dctoresration in the collapse of late classic Copan Maya stare. In Tmpicnl deforcstntitm. L. E. Sponsel, T. N. He:1dland, and R. -. lhi ley, eds. New York: V1l um bia ni ve rsi ty Press, pp. 55- 75. Abu -Lughod , J. 1989. Before E11ropemt1JegcJI/01lJ: T7Jc wodd S)•stcm A .D. 1250-1350. New York: Oxford U niversity Press. Ad:1ms, R. N. 1982. Pn.rndoxicnl !Jm' l>cst: EtiCI:OY n.ud cxplnun.tioJJ iJJ Britis!J history, 187G-191 4. Camb ridge : Cambridge nivcrsity Press. Adriaansc, A. , S. Bringezu, A. Hammond, Y. Moriguch i, E. Rodenburg, D . Rogich, and H . Schiitz. 1997. Resource flows: T7Je material bam uf iudttstrinl cwtwmies. Washingron, DC: World Resources lnstintte. Aikhcnvald, A. Y. 1999 . Areal d iffi1sio n and language conta..:t in the Iea na- aupes basin , north-west Amazonia . In T7Jc Amn::AmimtlnugungcJ. R. M. \•V. Dixon and A. Y. Aik.hcnvald, cd . Cambridge: Cambridge Univ..:r ity Pre , pp. 38~16. Aikhenvald , A. Y., and R. M. W. Dixon . 1998 . Evidcntials and areal typology: A case stud y fi·om mazonia. Ln.ugunge Sciences 20:24 1-57. Ales, C., and M. Pouyllau. 1992. L1 conqucte de )'inutile: Lcs gcographi..:s imag inaires de !'Eldorado, L'Howme 32:27 1- 308. Alexander, M., cd. 1976. Discol!eri11g the Nem Wm,ld, based 1111 the works ojTI1codorc de R17. cw York: H:1rpcr and Row.

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Barbiero, G., S. Camponcschi, A. Femia, G. Grcca, A. Tudi ni , and M. Vannozzi. 2003. 1980-1998 Material-ill put-bfl.Sed illdicntor-s time series n.ud 1997 material bnln11ccs of the Italian ectmomy. Rome: ISTAT. Barfield, T. J. 1989. The perilous fi·onticr: mun.dic cwpin·s nud China . Oxford, K: Blackwell Publishi ng. Barjamo,~e, G. 2005. A historical geograph)• of ancie nt Anatolia in the Assyrian Colony Period. Ph.D. disserrarion, Copcn h :~gen, Denmark: niversiry of Copen hagen. Barrett, . 2000. Monc)• matters: Doing business in Vanuatu, Islmui Spirit ( 12 ): II . Barrow, C. J. 1985. The development of the varzeas (Aoodlands ) of Brazilian Amazonia . In Clmugc in the Amnzou bnsiu. J. Hemming, ed. Vol. l. Manchester, K: M:tnche rer University Press, pp. 108- 128. Barth , F. 1969. Etlmicgr-oups n.ud bormdm·ies: The social 01lf£tni~.tiou ofwltuml diffi:rm ce. Bosron: Little, Brown. Basso, E. B. 1973. The Knln.palo lndinus ofcmtml Bmzit. ew York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. Bares, D. G., :1nd S. H. Lees, cds. 1996. Cnsc studies iu humnu ecology. New York: Plenum Press. Bateson , G. 1972a. From Versailles to cybernetic . In Steps to fill ecology ofmi1ld. Frogmorc, K: Paladin , pp. 445-453. - - -1972b. Steps to an ecology of mind. ew York: Ballantine. Barisrclb, M. , S. Robeson, and E. F. Mora n. 2003. errlcme nr design , forest fi·agmentarion, and landscape cha nge in Rondonia , Amazo nia, Photogmmmctric E11giu ecri11g muf Remote Seusiug 69(7 ):805-812. Bcaglcholc, James, cd. 1955. Tl;c joumnls of Captain James Cook on his l!oyngcs of disco111:rv. Cambridge: Cambridge nivcrsiry Press. Bcaujard , P. 2005. The Indian Ocean in Eurasian and Arrican world -systems befi>rc the sixteenth century, Joumnl of World Himn:v 16:4( Dcc.):4 11-465 . Beckerman, . 1977. The usc of palms by Bari Indians of the Maracaibo Basin, Priucipes 21: 143- 154. Bccqudin, P., and D. Michdcr. 1994. Dcmografi:t en b zona Puuc: El recurso del m~todo, Lntin Amu ·icrm Antii]uity 5:289- 311. Behling, H. 2002. Impact of the Holocene sea-level changes in coastal, eastern and central Amazonia, Amazouimrn 17:41 - 52 . Bchre, K. E. , and D. Kucan. 1994. Die Gcschichtc dcr Kulturlandschaft und des Ackerb:\lls in der Sicdlu ngskammer Flogeln, iedersachsen, scit der )ungsteinzcit, Problewc der Kiistmfom lmng im siirllichcn ordscegcbict 21:1 - 228. Bell, B. 1971. The dark ages in ancient history I: The first dark age in Egypt, Awerimu Joumnl of Archeology 75:1 - 26. - - -1975 . Climate and the history of Egypt: The Middle Kingdom , Amer·im11 ]oumal ofArcheology 79:223-69. Bell, M., and M. ). C. Walke r. 1992. Lfl,te 1]1tntema.r:v c11 11immnCIIta.t cl;nuge: Pll)'Sicnl aud humm1 pcnpectiJ1cs. Essex, UK: Longman Scientific and Technical.

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lknenson, I., and P. M. Torre ns. 2004. Geosiumlntiou. Automn.tn-bnsed modelling of urbmt p!Jmomma. Hoboken, N J: John Wiley. Bennett, E. L., and]. G . Ro binson . 2000. Hunting of wildlife in tropical torests: lmplica£ions for biodiversity and forest peoples. Environme ntal Department Papers 76, Biodiversity Series-Impact tud ics. Washington , DC: T he World Ba nk. Berglund, B. E. 1969. Vegetation and human inAucnce in South Scandinavia during th e prehistoric rime, Oilws Supplcmwt 12:9- 28. - - -1985. Early agriculture in ca ndin:wia: Research problems related ro po llen analytical studies, m·nn;girm A•·ciJiu n11d the origim of Audcnn cil,ilbuion. London: Thames an d Hudson. Burgess, R. L. , and L. Jacobson. 1984. rcheo logical sed imentS from a shell midden ncar Wortc:l Dam, Walvis Bay, omhern Africa, Pn1ncoccology ofAJhcn 16:429-435. Burmeister, S. ed. 2004. Rnd uud Wngc11. Dcr U1·sprrmg ci11 cr bmovntiou. Wngcu iw 110rdm:n Oricut und Eumpa. Mainz: Verlag Phi ll ip von Zabern. Burns, T. ]. , D. L. Byron and E. L. Kick. 1997. Position in the worl d -system an d nationa l emissions of g reenhouse gases, fmmml of Wm·ld-5_ystcms R escm·ch

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Condliffc, J. B. 1950. TJJc cowmci'CC tifuntious. New York: Norton. Conklin , B. A. 2001. Cousrmt.iuggr·icf Compnssimtntc cmmibnlism i11 nn Amn:::Amimt socice,•. Austin, TX: Univcrsil:)' ofTexas Press. Conncrron, P. 1989 . Hm11 societies t·cmembel: New York: Cambridge n iversiry Press. Costanza, R. , and M. Rmh. 1998 . sing dynam ic modelling to scope cnvironmenwl problems and build ·o nsc.:n u , EltJiil·ou meu.tnl i\1mmgcmcltt 22:183-195 . Couclclis, H . 2002. Why I no longer work with agents: A challenge tor AB1\Ils of hum:m- environment interactions. In Agmt-bnJed madcls aflnud-uJc nurf ln:ud-cm>cr clmugc, D. C. Parker, T. Berger, and S. I. bnson , eds. Report and Review of an International Workshop, O ctober 4-7, 2001, L CC Report Series no. 6. L CC Focus 1 Office, Indiana University, pp. 3-6. Coulthard, T. ) ., ) . Lewin, and M. G. Macklin. 2005. Modelling diflcrenria l catchment rc.:sponsc to envi ronmental cha nge.:, Geomorphology 69:222- 24 1. Coulthard, T. ]., M. G. Mackl ir1 , and M. ) . Kirkby. 2002. Simu lating upland river catchment and alluvial fun evolution. Enr-th Smfncc Processes nud Lnurlforms 27:269-288. Crews-Meyer, K. A. 200 l. Assessing bndscape change and popubtion-environmcm interactions vi:t panel :tnalysis, Geacm·to lutcnmtimml l 6(4 ):69- 79. Crocombe, R. 200 I . The South Pacific. Suva: Institute of Pacifi ·Studies, University of the South Pacific. Cronon , Vv. 1992 . A place for stories: ature, histOJ')' and narrative, 71Jc Jott mfll of Awericmt History 78: 1347- 1376. Crosby, A. W. 1986. Ecolqgicnl impcrinlirm: 71Jc biologicnl cxpnmion of Europe, 90G1900. Cambridge: Cambridge Universil:)' Pre s. - - -2003. Awcricn )sf()rgottcn pn11dcwic: T11c i11jlttmza of 1918. ew edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Crumley, C. L. 1979. T hree Iocational models: An epistemological assessment for anthropology and archeology. In A rfJ,mtccr iu nrcl;cologicnlmctborf nurf tiJcm:''· Michael B. Schiffer, ed . New York: Colu mbia niversiry Press, pp. 141 - 173. --- 1987:~. Celtic settlement bctore the conquest: The dialectics of landscape :~nd power. In Rcgiounl d)•unmicr: Bwzpmdinu lnudrcn.pcs in historicnl pcr.rpcctiJ>C. San Diego: Academi · Press. - - -1987b. A di:~Icctical critique of hierarchy. In Pon>CI'I'cintious n11d stnte fiwmn.timt. . C. Patterson and C. W:~rd G:~ilcy, eds. W:~shington, DC: American nrhropological Association, pp. 155- 168. - - -1993. Ana lyz ing historic ecotonal shi fts, Ecologicnl Applicntiou.1 3( 3 ):377- 384. - - -1994a. cd. Historicnl ecology: Culwmllmowlcrfgc rmrf clmugiug lmuiscn:pcs. Sant:l Fe, NM: School of American Resea rch Press. - - - 1994b. The ecology of conq uest: Contrasti ng agropastnral and agricu ltural so ·ictics' adaptation to climatic change. In Histot'icnl ccolog)': Cultu.mllmowlcrfge nud chm1!Ji11g lnudscnpcs. C. L Cr u mlcy, ed. Sama Fe, M : chool of American Re carch Press., pp. 183- 201.

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- - -1995a. Hctcrarch y and t he analysi of complex socictics. In Ht:tcm!·cl~)'nud the 1111n~ysis ofcowplc.\: societies. R. M. Ehrenreich, C. L. Crumley, and J. E. Levy, eds. Archeological Papers of cl1e American Anthropological Association no. 6 . Washi ngron , DC: American mhropological Association, pp. 1- 5. - - -1995b. Building an historical ecology ofGau lish politics. In 'eltic chiefdom, Celtic strltc. B. Gib on and B. Arnold, ed . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 26- 33. - - -1998. Fore' ord . Advnuus ht historicn.l ecology. W. Balee, ed. New York: Columbia niversity Pre , pp. ix- xiv. ---2000. From garden to globe: Linking time and space with meaning and memory. In The n>ny the ll'ind bloll's: Climnte, history, nud humn11 nctiou. R. J. Mcintosh,]. A. Tainter, :md S. K. Mclmosh, eds. New York: Columbia U ni versity Pre s, pp. 193- 208 . - - -200 I a. Communication , holism, and the evolution of sociopolitical complexity. In Lenders to mien: 1hc deJ1c/opmmt ofpolitiml ccntrnliwtion. ]. Haas, ed. New York: Plenum , pp. 19-33. - - -2001 b, ed. ew directions in nmhropology m1d &lllliromncllt: In tersections. Walnut Creek, CA: AltaM ira Press. - - -2001c. rcheolog)' in the new world order: What we can offcr the pbnct. In An odyssey ofspncc: Proceedings oftbe 2001 Chncmool coufcrmcc. Calgary: University of Calgary Press. - - -2003a. lternarive forms ofsoeieral order. In Hctcmrcl~y, politicni ecmtom.r, nud

the nncicnt Mnyn: TIJC Three Ri11crs I"C.!Jiou of the cast ccu.tml Yucntnu Pmimuln. V. L. S..:arborough , F. Valdez Jr. , and . Dunni ng, cd . Tucson: The Un iversity of Arizona Press. - - -2003b. Hisrorical ecology: A scheme for disaster prcparednes.~ and rhe reinterpretatio n ofhc rimgc reso urces. In AJ·socia.tilm for prcscrl'lltion talmology lmllcti1t. Albany, NY: Mount Ida Press. - - -2003c. Historical ecology: Analyzing landscapes at multiple tem poral and spatial scales. Paper presented at the Conference on rban Landscape Dynamics and Resource Usc, Uppsala, Sweden , August 28- 3 1, 2003. Crumley, C. L., and W. H . Marquardt, cds. I 987. Regional dynamics in Burgundy. In R cgio11ni dynamics: Bm;gundin11 ln~tdscnpcs i11 histm·icnl pcnpcctil'c. C. L. Crumley and W. H. Marq uardt, eds. San Diego: Academic Press, pp. 609 23. Cruxent, J. M., and M . Kamen -Kayc. 1950. Rcconocimicn to del area del Alto Ori noco, rios ipapo y Autana , en cl Territolio Federal Amazonas, cnewcla, Mcmorin de In Socicdad de Cicu.cins n.tum!cs Ln Snllc 10(26): 11- 23. Culbert, T. P. 1988 . The colbpse of classic laya civil ization. In 17Jc collapse of nncicut stntes n11d cil'ilizn.ti!ms. N. YotTcc and G.L. Cowgi ll , eds. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press, pp. 69- 101. Daily, G., T. Soderqvist, S. Aniyar, K. Arrow, P. Dasgupta, P. R. Ehrlich, C. Fol ke, A. Hansson, B. 0 . Jansson, N . Kautsky, S. Levin , ]. Lubchcnco, K. G. Ma ler, D. Simpson, D. Starrett, D. Tilman, and B. W z l.!.l

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de Carvajal, G. 1934. Discovery of the Orellana River. In The discm•e1:y oftbe AmnZim nccordiug to the accomtts offriar Gnspm· de Cm·r11~jnl and otl;cr docm11e11ts. H. C. Heamn, ed. New York: American Geographical Society, pp. 167-235. deFries, R., C. Field , I. Fung, G. Collarz, and L. Bounoua. 1999. Combin ing sa rellire data and biogeochemical models to estimate global effects of huma n-induced land cov~:r change o n carbon emissions an d primary productivit)', Global Biogcod;cmicnl Cycles 13(3):803- 815. de Fries, R. S., C. B. Field, I. Fung, C. 0. Justice, S. Los, P. . Marson, E. Matthews, H. A. Moone y, C. S. Potter, K. Prentice, P. ]. Sellers,]. R. G. Townshend , C. ] . Tucker, S. L. Usdn, and P. M.Viwusek. 1995. Mapping the land surfuce for global atmosphe re-biosphere models: Toward continuous distribu tions of vegetation's functional properties, Jom·unl of Get~pbysicn.l Res. ANnos. I 00 ( D I 0):20867- 20882. deFri cs, R., R. A. Houghton, M. C. Hansen, C. H. Field, D. Skolc, and ]. Townshend. 2002 . Carbon emissions fi·om tropical deforestation an d regrowth based on satell ite observations fo r the 1980s and 1990s, p,·occcdiugJ of the Nntio11nl Aend.cmyofScimccs (USA), 99(22 ): 14256-14261. de L·mda, M. 1997. A thousand ,vcnrs of uonlincnr history. New York: Zone Books/ Swerve Editions. de Marco, 0., G. Lagioia, and M. Pizzoli. 2000 . Materials Aow analvsis of the Italian economy, Jolt mal if ludllm·inl Ecology 4(2 ):55-70. de Menocal, P. 2001 . C ultural responses to climate change d ming the Late Holocene, Science 292:667 )73. Denemark, R. A. 2000. Cllmu lation and directio n in world system history. In World system bistory: The socinlscieuce ofloug·tcrm chn11ge. R. A. Denemark, J. Friedman, B. K. Gills, and G. Modclski, eds. London: Ro utledge, pp. 299- 312 . Dcnevan , W. M. 1992. Srone vs. mcral axes: The ambiguity of shifting cultivation in prehistoric Amnonia , Journnl of the Stcmm·d Autl~ropillogicnl S1~eicty 20:153- 165. - - - 2001 . C~tltirlfl.ted. landscapes of ttntir•c Amazmlin aud tiJc Au des. Oxford: Oxford University Press. - - -2004. Semi -inren ive pre-European cu ltivation :1nd rhe origi ns of anthropogeni c Dark Ea rths in Amazonia. In AmnZim.imz Dn.rk Enrths: ExplomtiouJ itl space m1d time. B. Gla cr and W. I. Wood , cds. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, pp. 135- 143. Dcneva n, W. M. , :1nd A. Zucchi . 1978 . Ridged-field excavations in the central Ori noco Llanos, ene;web. In Advnuccs iu Audcau fii'Chcology. D. L. Browman , cd. Paris: Mouton Publishers, pp. 235- 245. Depew, D. ]., and B. H. Weber. 1995. Dm·wiuism cr•ol11iug: 5_yltcms d.)~lflmics nud the gcucnlog)' ofuntllrn/ sclcct:iou. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Dcrgachc,•, \ . 2000. The migration theory of Ma1ija Gimburas, Jmmml of JudoEw·opcnu St11dies 28(3-4):257-319 . Descola, P. 1981. From scartercd to nucleated settlement: A process of ocioeconomic cha nge among the Achuar. In Cultuml tmusfommtiom nud. etlmicity in mod.cr·n Ecttnd.m: . Whitten, cd. rbana, IL: niversiry of Illi nois Press, pp. 614-646.

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- - -1988. L• selva culm: imbolismo y p rax is e n Ia ccologia de los Achuar. Quito: Ediciones Abya-Yala. Dcscola, P., 1989. Ln sehlfl culm.- simbolismo y prm.:is &II la ecologfa de los A chum: Lima . --- 1 994:~ . Homcosrasis :'IS :1 cu ltu ml system: T he Jfvaro c:~sc. In Amazonian lndiam fro m prcbistory to the prescut: Autbi'Opological perspeetipcs. A. C. Roosevelt, ed . Tucson , AZ: The nivcr ity of Arizona Pre s, pp. 203-224. - - -1994b. bt the society ofllf'ttllr&: A llfr.tive ecology i11 Amazonia. New York: Cambridge University Press. - - - 1996. T1Jc spcn.rs oftwiligbt: Life nmi death iu tbc Amazon jtmglc. New York: The ew Pre s. DETR/ ONSj\.YI. 200 1. Total material resource flows of the United ICittgdom (revised and updated 2002 by ONS ). Dcp:1rrmcnr of Environmcnr, Tr:~nspo r r and rhc Regions of the K, Office for National tatistics of the L, Wuppcrtal Institute. Dcvcz:~s, T., and G. Modclski. 2003 . Power, law, bch:~vi our and world sy tem evolution: A millcnnial learn ing process, Tedmologiw/ Forccn.rti11g nud Socia./ Clm11gc O crobcr: 1--41 . de Vries, B. , and J. Goudsblom, cds. 2002. M :~ ppac M undi: Humans and their hab i r:~rs in a long-rerm socio -ecological perspecti ve . In Myths, 1uaps, and models. Amsterdam: Am terdam nivcrsity Press. dc Vries, B. , M. T homp o n, and K. Wirtz. 2002. Understandi ng: Fragments of a unif)•ing perspective. In Myths, maps, n.nd 1/todcls. B. D e Vries and J. Goudsblom, c.ds. Amstercbm : Amstcrthm Univcrsi t}' Press. de Vries, 0. H. 2002. Monitoring dynam ic hu man ·nvironmcntal systc.:ms: A histo rical and po litical ecological critiq ue o n the rolc ofbasdi nc ana lyses. Papcr prcsenred at he 2002 Berlin Conference o n the Human D imensio ns of Global Environmental Change and the 2002 Annual Convention ofrhe Environmental Po licy and Global C han ge cction of the Ge rma n Po litical cic ncc Association. - - -2005. Choosing your baseline carefu ll y: Integrating histolical and po litica.l ecology in the evaluation of enviro nmental inten•ention projects, Jou nml of Eco!ogicnl Auth1·opology 9 :35- 50. de Vries, P., and H. Seu r. 1997. Momron nnd us. Lyon: Ce ntre.: de Documentation ct de Rc hcrchc sur Ia Paix ct lcs ConAits. Diakonoft: I. 1982 . The srrucn1re of car Eastern society before the middle of d1e second mi llennium n.c., Oikcmeuc 3:1 - 100. Diamond, J. 1997. Guus,germs, rwd steel: The fntcs oflmmmz sociL·tics. ew York: W.W. OrtOn . - - -2005. Collapse: How societies choose to fail or m ccecd. Lo ndon : Allen Lane/ Viking . Dlaz del Rio, P., P. Lopez Garcia, ] .- . UlpC l :kz, M. I. Martinez Navarette, A. L. Rodriguc.:z Alcalde, S. Rovira-Llorens, ]. M. Vicent Garda, and I. De Zavala Morencos 2006. U ndersmnd ing d1e produ ctive econo my during the Bronze Age th roug h ardueomctallurg ical and palaeo-environmental re carch at Kargaly (southern Urals, Orenbu rg, Russia ). In Beyond the steppe aud the sonm. D . L. Peterson, L. M . Popova, and A. T. mirh, eds. Proceedings of the 2002 niversity

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of Chi cago Confi:n:nce o n Eurasian Archaeology. Colloq ui a Po ntica. Series on the Archeology and Ancient History of the Black Sea Area. Lei den and Boston: Brill Academic Publishers. Digcrfcldt, G. , and . Wdi nder. !988. The prehistoric cultural landscape in southwest Sweden, Actn Archeologicn 58 :127- 136. di Gregorio, A., and L. J. M. Janse n. 2000. Land cover classificatioll system. Rome: FAO . Dixon, R. M. W., and A. Y. Aikhcnva ld, eds. 1999a . TI1c Amnumirmlrmgunges. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. - - -1999b. Introduction. In TIJc Amn::.o11in11 lmi[Jtmges. R. M. W. Dixon and A. Y. Aik.henvald, cds. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1- 21. Dolubnov, P. !994. Euvit·omuent n11d ctlmicity i11 the nncient Middle Enst. Avcbur)', K: Worldwide rchcology Series. Diiiis, B. R. 2002 . Population growth and loss of arab le land , Clobnl £m,iromucntn / CIJflii[JC 12(4): 303- 311. Dougla , M. 1973. Nntnml symbols: £vplomtio11s in cosmo/qgy. New York.: Vintage Books. Drews, R. !988. Titc com i ll[] ofthl' Creeks: ludti -Eumpmu conquests iu the Acgmu nud the Ncar Enst. Princeton: Princeton nivcrsity Press. Duster, T. 1996. The prism of heritabili ty and the sociology of knowled ge. In Tnked scicucc: Anthropological inquiry into boundaries, powc1~ nud knowledge. L ader, ed. London: Ro urlcdge, pp. !!9- !30. Dzicdusqcb- lac hnik, A., and ]. Machn ik 1990. Die Mi:iglichkcitcn dc r Erforschu ng der oziak n Strukn.r frLi hbronzezeitlichcr Mc nschengruppc n in Klcinpolcn-a m Beispiel dcr ek.ropolc in lwanowice. Codimiak, Kujiga XXVII, Cenrar za Balk.a noloska Ispitivanja, Knjiga 26. Sarajevo, 185- 196. Eark , T. 2001 . Institutiona lization in chi efdoms: Why landscapes arc built. In From lenders to mien. ]. Haas, cd. Dordrccht: Kluwcr Academic/ Ple num Publi hers, pp. 105- 124. Eckmann, J.-P. , and D. Ruelle. 1985. Ergodic thCDr)' of chaos and strange artr..Ktors, Rc1'iew ofMorlcm Physics 57:6 17- 656. Ecscdy, L 1994. Camps for cternal rest: Some aspe-rs oftl1c b urials of the earlic t nomads of the steppe. In TI;c n.rc!Jcology oftbc steppes: Methods m1d stmtcgics. B. Gcniro, ed . Papers from an international symposium he ld in aplc.s, Iraly, 9- 12 1 ovcmbcr 1992, pp. 167- 177. Eden, M. J. 1974. Ecological aspects of development among Piaroa and Guahibo Ind ian of the upper Orinoco basi n, A11fl·opol6gica 39:25- 56. Egan, D., and E. A. Howell, eds. 2001. TI1c bistorical ecology hn11dbook: A l'estomtioui.rt)s guide to refi-reuce ecosystems. Washingto n, DC: Island Press. Ehrenreich, R. M ., C. L. Crumley, and ]. E. Levy, eds. 1995. Hetcmnby au.d tiJe mtnlysis of complex societies. Archeological Papers of the American Anth ropological Association no. 6. Washi ngton, DC: America n Anthropolog.ical Association. Eisenmenger, N. 2002 . l ntcrnarionalcr Handcl und globale Umweltveriindcrungcn .

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Ka nn cine Vcrbindung der We lt-Sy tem Theorie mit de m Konzept des gesellschafdichen Metabolismus zu ci nem bcsscrcn Vcrsta ndnis bcin-agc n ?

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Ki rch, P. V. and T L H unt eds. 1997. Historical Ecology iu the Pacific Islands: Prcbistoric Em•i1·munctttlll and Lrmdscnpc Cbaugc. ew Haven: Yale niver ity Press. Klooster, D. 2003. Forest tra nsitions in Mexico: Institutions and torcsrs in a globali zed cou ntryside, Proji:Jsioual Gcogmpbe7' 55(2):227- 237. Kohl , P. 2001. Migrations and cultural diffu ion in the later pre history ofd1e Cauc:rsus. In Migmtimt tmd Kultttrtmmfcr. Dcr Wrmdcl dcr r>m'dcr· uud zentmlnsiruischer Kultttreu iw Umbmch vtmt 2. zum I. r>m-ci:Jristiicheu j n.hrtnuscnd. Rtimisch· Gennanische Kommission, Frankfurt a. M. Eu rasien· Abtciltm g, Berli n. Kollol]lticn zur Vor·uud Friibgcschichtc, Band 6. R. Reichmann and H . Par-l inger, eds. Bonn : Dr. Rudolf Habelt. - - -2003. lmegr:lted inrer:tction at the beginn ing of the Bronze ge: New evidence fi·om the northeastern Caucasus and the advent of ti n bro nzes in the thi rd millen ni um f!.C. In A1·cheology iu the bordcrln11ds: Iuvestign.timiS in Cnucnsin. nnd bc_vmui. A. T mith and K. Rubi nso n, eds. Monographs 47. Los Angeles: The Cotscn Institute of An:heo logy, University of Cali fornia, pp . 9-21. Kohler, T., and G. G umerman, eds. 2000. Dynamics in lmmau n.ud primntc societies: Ageut·bascd modeling ofsocin./ nnd spn.tinl processes. The S:tma Fe Institute for Studies in d1 c Science of Complexity. Oxtc1rd: Oxford niversiry Press. Kolata, G. 1999. Flu: 71Je story of the great influwzn pandemic of 1918 a11d the search fin· the 1>ims tiJrtt caused it. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giro ux. Konropoulo., K. M. 2006. The logics of social structu re. In Structuml mw~ysis iu tbe social scieuccJ, 6. M. Granovener, ed. C:unbridge: Cambridge Unive rsity Pre . Krad in , . N. 2002. Nomadism, evolution and world-systems: P:~ tora l societies in theories of hisrorical devclopmem, Joumnl of World ·SJ•stcms Research 8( 3 ):368388. Krausm:~n n , F. 2003. La nd usc and societal me tabolism in 19th ccntu r)• Austrian vi llages. Prcsmtatiou at the 2ud Coufereucc of the Etwopenn Society ofEm>inmmmtal H istory: Dcnliti!J witb Dil>ersity, 3-7 eptember 200 3, Prague. Kremenrski, C. \ . 1997. The b re Holocene erwironmcnral and clim:tte shi ft in Russia :~nd urrou nding lands. In 71Jird m illmuium I!. C. cliwntc cbaugc n.ud old world co!lnpsc. H. N. Dalfes, G. Kukh , :~nd H. Weiss, eds. Berl in : Springer-\ erlag. Kremenerski, K. 2003. Steppe and forest steppe belt of Eurasia: Holocene en iron mental history. In Prcbistm'ic steppe ndnptntious nnd tbc bon·c. M. Levine, C. Renfrew, and K. Boyle, eds. Cambridge, K: McDonald Institute monographs, pp. 11- 29. Kri tiansc n, K. 1989. Prehistoric migrations-The case of the Single Grave Culture and Corded Ware C ultures, j oumn.l ofDn.nisiJ A1·cheo!ogy 8:2 11 - 225. - - - J998a. Eur()pc bcfm' history. (',a mbridge: Cambridge niversity Press - - -1998b. The construction of a Bro nze Age landscape. Cosmology, eo.:onomy an d social organisation in Thy, onhwestern hrdand . In Mensch mtd Umwclt itt der Bronzezeit Europns. B. Ha nsel, ed. Kid: Oetker-\ ogc Verlag, pp. 281 - 291. - - -200 1. Rule rs and warriors: Symbolic transmission and social transformation in Bronze Age Europe. In From lenders to mien]. Haas, ed . Dordrecht: Kl uwcr eadcmic/Pien um Publ ishers, pp. 85- 105.

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- - -2004. Institutions and material culture: Towards an intercontextual arc heology. In Rctbiuldug materiality: T11c eugagemmt ofmiud and tbc maw·ial111orld. C. Renll-ew and E. DeMarais, eds. Cambridge, K: McDonald Instiru e Monographs. - - -2005. What language did Neolithic pors spcnk' Colin Renfi·ew's furm inglanguage-dispersalmodcl challenged, Autiquit:v 79(305 ): 679-691. Klistiansen, K., and T. B. L"lr on. 2005. TIJe 1·ise of BI'OIIZ& Age society: TmJ1cls tmusmission and n·nwformations. C:1mbridge: C:11nbridgc ni1•ersiry Press. Krugman , P. R., and M. Obstfeld. 2000. lutcruntimml economics: Thcm·y nud policy. Reading, MA: Addison-We Icy (World Student Se1ies). KJ·uk , }., and S. Milisauskas. 1999. Rozkwit i upadek spolcczc 'nstw rolniczych ncoli tu . T11e rise a11tf fall of TeolitiJic societies. Krakow, Poland: Insrymt Archeologii i Ernologii Polskiej Abdemii N:lllk. Kurella, D. l998. T he Mu isca: Chiefdoms in transition. In Cbiefdows nud chicftni11c_v i11 tbe Auw·icas. E. M. Redmond , ed. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, pp. 89- 2 l 6. Kuzmina, E. E. 1998. Culrural connections of the Tarim Basin People and the pasroralisrs of the Asi:1n steppes in the Bronze Age. In T7Jc Bronz-e Age and cady Iro11 Age pcopks of mstcm ccntml Asin.. V. H. Mair, eel. Washington, DC and Philaddphia: The lnstitt1te for the Study of Man in collaboration with T he University of Pcnnsylva nia Museum Publications, pp. 63- 92. - - - 200 l. The firs migration wave of Indo -Iranians to the south, Jounml of lt~do ­ Em·operm Studies 29( l ): l-40. - - -2002. O rigi ns of pastoralism in the Elu-asian steppes. In Prebistoric steppe adaptatioll autf tbe bm-se. M. Levine, C. Renfi·ew, and K. Boyle, cds. Cambridge, UK: McDonald Institute 1onographs pp. 203-232. L"lgcds, P. 1996. Farming and forest dyna mics in an agriculturally marginal area of southern Sweden, 5000 B.c. to present: A palynological stud y of Lake vcgol in the Sm. land uplands, T11c Holocm e 6:30 1-3 14. L"lmb, H . H. 1972- 1977. Cliwntc: Prcse11t, past, aud fit titre. London: Methuen. - - -1982. Cliwruc, history twd the modem ll!twltf. London: 1cthuen. - - - 1984. C limate and hi tory in northern Europe and elsewhere. In Climatic chaugcs on n J'Car~v to millemtial basis. N.-A. Morner and W. Karlen, eds. Dordrecht: Reidel Publishing Company, 225-240. - - -1995 . Cli111atc, history, nud the modem world, 2nd cd . ( 1st ed. 1982). London: Routledge. L1mb, H ., I. Darbysh ire, and D. Vc rsch uren . 2003. Vegetation response to r-ainfa ll variation and human impact in central Kcn)ra d uring d1c past 1,100 years, The Holocene ( 13)2:285- 292. Lambin, E. F. l 994. Modclliug d£forcstatitm p1·occsscs: A I"CJJiew. Luxembu rg: European Commission. - - -1997. Modelling and monitoring land -cover change processes in tropical regions, Progms iu Pbysicn.l GcogmpiJ)' 2 1(3 ):375-393. L"lmbin, E. F., X. Bau lics, N. Bockstacl, G. Fischer, T. KJ·ug , R. Lcemans, E. F. Moran , R. R. Rindfuss, Y. aro, D. Skolc, B. L. Turner II, and C. Vogel. 1999.

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- - -1999. L1 uti lidad de sccuencias cer;\micas seriadas para infcrir conduct;l social prehist6rica, El Cm·ibe Arqueol6gico 3:2-19. ---2001. The mystery of the Marajoara: An ecological solution, AwnZfmimrn 16(3/4):42 1-440. Meggers, B. J., and J. Danon. 1988. Identification and implications of a hiants in the archeological sc.:q uencc on Maraj6 Island, Brazil, Jrmrnnl of the Wnshi11!Jtou Acndcmy ofScicuccs 78:245- 253. Mcggers, B., and C. Evan . 1957. Archcologicnl iuvcstigntious nt tbc mouth rifthc AmnZfm. Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution. Mcggcrs, B.)., and E. Th. Miller. 2003. Hunter-gatherers in Amazonia during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition . In Uudc1· tbc cmwj~v. J. Mercader, ed. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, pp. 291 - 3 16. Meillet, A. 1952. Atlnsdcslnugucsdu mondc. Pa1is: CNRS. Mena, P., ]. R. Sta ll ings, B. Jhanira Regalado, and L. Ruben Cueva. 2000. The sus1:;1inability of current hunting practices by the Huaorani. In Htm ti11g fin· mstni11nbility i11 t1"0picnl forem. J. G. Robinson and E. L. Bennett, eds. New York: Columbi:l University Press, pp. 57- 78. t'v1ctraux, A. 1940. Etlmolog)' of Easta ls!mJti. Honolulu, H I: Bernice P. Bishop Mu cum Bulletin 160. Meyer, W. 1996. Hnmn11 impact 011 the EnrtiJ. New York: Cambridge U niversity Press. Mi ller, E. Th., era!. 1992. Arqueologia 11M cmprccutiiwcntos bid1·cfitricos da Elctrouorte: Remltndos prclimiunrc..-. Brasflia: Centra is Elc:'tricas do Norte do Brasil S.A. Millon, R. 1981. Teotihuadn: City, state, ~md civilization. In Ha11dbook of Middle AuiCI·icau Jutiirms, upplemcnr 1, Archeology. Austin, TX: nivcrsiry of Texas Press, pp. 198- 243. Milner, G. P. , and) . S. O liver. 1999. L1te prehistoric settlements and wetlands in the central Mississippi Valle~·· In Settlcmmt pnttem studies i11 the Americas: Fifty )'Cffl"f siuce Vi~·1i. B. R. Billm;J.n and G. M. Feinman, cds. W:~shingmn, DC: Smithsonian Institution Press, pp. 79- 95 . Milner-Gulland, E. J., E. L. Bennett, and the SCB 2002 Annual Meeting of the Wild Meat Group. 2003. Wild meat: The bigger picwre, Trends in Ecolog)' & Evolmion 18:35 1- 357. Minsky, M. and S. Papcrr. 1972. Artificial i11tei/igmce prri!J1'CSS report (AI Memo 252). Ca mbridge, MA: MIT Artificial l ntelligencc L1boratory. Mithen, S. 1996. Tbc p1·chistm:vofthe mind: T7Jc cognitive origiusofart, religion auti scicuce. London: Th:~mcs and Hudson. Modclski, G. 1987. Loug cycles iu world politics. London: Macmillan. - - -1999. Ancient world cities 4000 to 1000 B. C. : Center/hinterla nd in the world system, Global Society 13( 4 ):383- 392. - - - 2000. World system c\•o lu rio n. In Wo1"/d system histOI')'." TI;e social sciwce tiflougtcrm chnu.gc. R. Denemark er aL, eds. New York: Routledge

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Autiquil)•7:51 - 60. Painter, M. , and W. H . Durham . 1995. Tl;e social causes ofcnJii!·oummtnl tfestmction i11 Lntiu America. An n Arbor, MI : University of Mich igan Press. Pare, C. 2000. Bronze and rhe Bronze Age. In Metals make tbc wm-lrlgtJ l'tJil11 d: Tl1e mpply m1rl cinulation of metals in tbe Bronze A.[fc. C. Pare, ed. Oxford: Oxbow Books, pp. 1-38. Parker, D. C., and T. Berger. 2002. P:trr 4: S)'nthcsis and discussion. In A.[fwt-bascd models oflnud·mc aud laud·ct)Jier chn11ge. D. C. Parker er al. , cds. Repo rt and Review of an International Workshop , October 4-7, 200 I , LUCC Report cries no. 6. LUCC Focus 1 Office, Indiana niversiry, pp. 79-88. Parker, D. C ., T. Berger, and S.M. Manson. 2002. Agent-based models oflnnrl-usc and lmlrl·coJICI' cbnuge. Report :~nd Review of :111 I nrernarional Workshop, October 7, 200 I , LUCC Report Series no. 6. LUCC Focus I Office, Ind iana U ni versity. Parker, D ., T. Berger, S. Manson, and W. J. McConnell. 2002. Agmt-bnsetf models oflaud-usc m1rl /and·COJ'CI' change. LUCC R eport Series No. 6. Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium: LUCC Inrernario n :~ l Project Office. Parker, D. C., S.M. Manson, M.A. Janssen, M . ]. Hoflrnan , and P. Deadman. 2003. Multi -agent systems for the simulation of land usc and land cove r change: A Review, A1mals of the Aswciatiou of Amcricnu Geogmplm·s 93: 316-340. Parker, E., D. Posey,] . Frechione, and L F. d:1 Silv:1. 1983. Reso urce exploitation in Amazonia: Ethnoecological examples fi·om tour popu lations, Ammls tifthc

Cm·ncgie Musmm 52: 163- 203 . Parsons, J. J. 1985. Raised field farmers as pre-Colum bian landscape engi neers: Lookin g no rth fi·om the San Jorge (Colombia). In P1·ebistoric illteu.riJ'e agl'iw./turc in tbc tropics. I. S. Farringwn, cd. British Archaeological Reports Inrcrnarional cries 232, pp. 149- 165.

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Scto, K. C., R. K. Kaufi11ann, and C. E. Woodcock. 2000 . L-lndsat reveals China's farm land reserves, but arc they vani hing? Nntrwe 406:3 14-322. Shannon, T. R. 1996. Au iutroduction to the world-S)•stcm perspecti11e. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Shea, D. E. 1976. In defense of small population estimates for the Central ndcs in 1520. In The 1111tive populruion of the Anm·icn.s in l 492. W. M. Dem: an, ed. Madison, WI: University ofWisconsin Press, pp. 157- 180. Shen , J ., T. Jones, X. Yang, J. A. Dearing, and S. Wang. 2006. The Holocene vegetatio n history of Erhai Lake, Yun nan Province , southwestern Chi na: The ro le of climate and human forcings, TIJC Holoeem 16:265- 276. Sherratt, A. 1997. Ecmunny 1111d society i11 prehistoric Europe: Cb11ngiug perspectives. Ed inburgh: Edinburgh Univer iry Press. - - -1999. Ec hoes of the Big Bang: T he histori cal context of language dispe rsal. In P1·ocadings fnun the tenth 11mmn.l UCLA Ju.dtJ·Europmn conference Los AugclcJ; 1998. K. Joncs-Bicy ct al. , eds. ]ourn11l of lndo-Europcn.n St-udies Monognrpb Series o. 32. Washington , DC, pp. 261-282. - - -2003. The Baden ( Pecci ) cul rure and Anarolia: Perspectives on a cult ural transformation. In Mm:gmmt dcr Knlturcn. Friibe Et11ppm dcr Mcuschbcitsgcschichtc i11 Mittel-tmd Siidostem·op11. E. Jcn:m and P. Rac zky, eds. Fest chrift H.i r Nandor Kalicz zum 75. Geburtstag . Budapest. Shislina, . I., ed. 2000. Scnso1111lity st-udies of the Bronze Age northwest Cn.spimr steppe (Euglish smmnn.ries). Papers ofd1c Stare Historic:~! luscum Vol. 120. loscow. - - -2001 (cd. ). The seasonal cycle ofgr.~ss bnd usc in the: Caspian Sea steppe : A new approa ·h to an old problc:m, Europen.n Joumnl ofA1·cheology 4:323-46. - - -2003 (cd. ). Yamna cult ure pasrorJ! exploit:ttion: A local sequence. In Prehistm·ic steppe 11d11ptn.tiom 1111d the hon-e. M. Levine, C. Rcnfi·ew, and K. Boyle, c:ds. Cambridge: McDonald Institute: Monographs, pp. 353- 367. Shislina, . I. , V. P. Golikov, and 0 . Orfinskaya. 2000. Bronze Age textiles of the Caspian Sea maritime steppes. In Km:grr.IJ.S, 1·itu11l sites, 1111d settlemcuts. Eumsi1111 B 1'111Jzt n.ud /rou Age. ). D:~vis- Kimball eta!., eds. Oxford: B R In ternational Series 890. Shislina, . I., and Hiebert, F. T. 1998. The teppc and the , own: Interaction between Bronze Age Eu r:1si:1n nomads and :tgriculrur.~lists . In 71Je Bron:;c Age 1111d enrly lm11 Age peoples ofenstcm Ceutml Asi11. . Mair, ed. \istn de Al"l]lt&ologirr. 4 ( 1):29-48. Simoes, I. F., and F. de Ar:tujo-Costa. 1987. Pesquisas :trqco16gicas no baixo rio Tocantins ( Para ), RCJ>istn. de Arqueologi11 4 ( 1 ): 11 - 27.

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Simoes, M. F., and D. F. Lope. 1987. Pcsquis.1s arqcol6gicas no baixoj mcdio Rio Madeira. Rc11ista de A1·qucologia 4( 1 ): 117-134. imoes, M. F., and A. L. Machado. 1987. Pesquisas arqueol6gicas no !ago de Siil•es (Amazonas), R cJ,ista de A1·quco/ogia 4( I ):49 - 82. Si ngh , S. J. 2003. In tbc sen. ofinjlucuce: A world·rystcm perspective of the icobm· Islands. Lund: Lund University ( Lu nd Studies in Human Ecology 6 ). Singh , S. ]., :llld C. M. Grlinblihcl. 2003. Environmcn ral reb.rions :md biophysical tra nsitions: T he case of Trin ket Islands, Geogmfiska Amj(l./er, cries B, Human Gcog1-rJ.pb_y8S B(4 ):I87- 204. Skolc, D. L., W. H. C homentowski, W. A. Sala , and A . D. Nobrc. 1994. Ph ysical and human dimensions of dctorestation in Amazonia, Bioscience 44( 5 ): 314-322 . Skole, D. L., and C. Tucker. I993. Tropical dctorestarion and habitat fragmen rarion in the Amazon: Satelli te data from I978 to 1988, cieuce 260(5116 ):1905- I9 10. Smith, . 1776/ 1937. Au iuquiry into the Jlntm·e aud causes of the IJ!cn/tiJ ofnntitms. 1776/1937. cw York: Rando m House. mith, A., and K. S. Rubinson , cd . 200 3. Arcbeotwy i11 rbc bordcr·/rmds. Im>cstigations in Cnucnsin mtd beyond. Monoyaphs 47. Los Angeles: The Corsen Institute of rcheology, nivc rsiry of Califixnia. Smith, V. A. 1981. 17Jc Oxjilrd histrn:r rif ludin.. 4 th ed ition. P. Spea r, ed. Delhi : Oxford University Press. now, C. P. 1959. The Tn>o Culmrcs a11d the scientific t"CJ>olution. New York: Cambridge University Press. Snowball, 1., P. Sa ndgren, and G. Pettcrsson. 1999. T he mine ral magnetic properties of an ann ually lam inated Holocene lake-sediment sequen ·e in nonhern Swede n,

17Jc Holoccuc 9:353-362. oares, L. de Castro. 1977. Hidrografia. In Gcogrnfia do Brasil, Vol. I , Rc.giiio Norte. Rio de Janeiro: Fundas:ao Insti tuto Brasilciro de. Geografia e Estatfstica, pp. 95166. Sombroek, W. G. 1984. Soils of the Amazon region. In 17~cAwn:um. H. Siol i, ed. Dordrerht: Dr. W. Junk Publisher, pp. 521 - 535. Sorlin , S., and A. Ockerman. 1998. f ordcu. c11 ii: Eu globnl miljiihistorin.. Stockholm: Natur och Kultur. Sorok.in, P. A. 1937. Social n11d cultttml dynamics. Vol. III. Flucttuuiom of socinl rclntiouships, war, and t"&J>olution. ew York: America n Book Company. Spe ncer, C. S. 1998. ltwestigating the deve lopment ofVe newclan chiefdoms. In CIJicfdoms nnd chicftn.iucy iu tiJc Amcricns. E. M . Redmond , ed . Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida, pp. 104-137. Spencer, H. 1860. Fiw principles. London: Williams & Norgate. Stager, J. C., B. C um ming, and L. Meeker. 1997 . A high -resolution II 400-yr diatom record fi·o m lake Victoria, East Africa , Qjtntcrnm:r Rcscm·cJJ 4 7 :81- 89. - - - 2 003. A 10,000-ycar high -resolution diatom record from Pilkington Bay, Lake Victoria, Ea t Africa, QJIM&runry R esearcJJ 59:172- 181.

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Web ter, J. B. 1980. Drought, mi gration and chronology in the Llcdgc mtd cbnugiug lnndscnpcs. C. L. Crumley, cd . ama Fe, Nt'vl : . chool of American Research, pp. 17-4 1. WirtZ, K. 2005 . lnn:gratcd modeling of human-climate intcra ·rions in the Holoccm:. E F HOUVA.R Work hop. Mai 2005 , Annaboda ( E). Wirtz, K., :md C. Lemmen. 2003, A global dynamic model fo r the Neolithic transition, Cliwn.tc Chnuge 59:333- 367. Wolf~ E. 1972. Owner hip and politi.:al ecology, Authropologicn.l Qpnl'tcr!y 45(3):2 0 1- 205. Wolfram, S. 2002 . A ltclll ki11d ofscimcc. Champaign, IL: Wolfi-am Media . Wood, C., :md R. Porro, cd . 2002. Deforc.rtn.tiou mui ln.11d use i11 tbc Amnzon. Gainesville, FL: University of Florida Press.

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Woodcock, C. E., S. . Macomber, M. Pax-Lcnney, and W. B. Cohe n. 2001. Monitoring large areas for forest change using Landsat: Generalization across space, time and Landsat sensors, R emote Scusiug of E11l'irom11cnt 78( 1- 2):194-203. Woodwell, G. M., J. E. Hobbie, R. A. Houghton, J. M. Melillo, B. Moore, B. J. Peterson, and G. R. Shaver. 1983. Global deforestation: Contribtltion to atmospheric carbon-dioxide, Scieuce 222 ( 4628 ):1081-1086 World Resources Institute (\•VRI ). 2004. Earthrrcnds. The environm enml infOrmation porr:tl. http:/ / earthrrends.wri.org. Wright, R. 2000. ou-zt:ro: 71Jc logic oflmmn11 dc;-ti1t)'. ew York: Pan theon. Wrigley, E. A., R. S. Davis, J. E. Oeppen, and R. . Schofield. 1997. E11glish populntiou!Jistoryfrom fnmi~v 1'CC01Jstru ctio11: 1580- 1837. Cambridge: Cambridge niversiry Press. Wu, F., and D. Martin. 2002. Urban expansion simub tion of Southeast Engla nd using population surfuce modelling and cel lular automam , Em,i1'01111tmt rmd Plmmi11gA 34( 10):1855- 1876. VvWF, NEP, Global Footprint ctwork. 2004. LiJJiltg pln11et report 2004. Gland, Switzerland: WWF. Yasuda, Y. 2001. Environme nml change and the rise and full of the Yangtze River C ivi lization, Mmuoou 3: 122- 125. In ternational Research Center ti>r Japanese Studies, Kyoto, Japan. Yasuda, Y. , and . Carro. 2004. Environmental variabi lity and human adaptation since the last glacia l period , QJIIltCI'IInl')' ]01mlfll ( pccial Issue ): 12 3- 125. Yoffee, 1995. Political economy in ea rly lesopota mian states, Anmml Re1,ic1J! of AutiJropology 24:281-311. Yoffce, ., and G. Cowgill , eds. 1988 . The collapse ofnuciwtstntcsmtd ciJ,ili::.n.tious. Tucson: The University of Arizona Press. Yost, J. A. 1981. Twenty yea rs of contact: The mechanisms of change in Wao (" Auca " ) cu lture. In Cultuml tmusjormatious mtd ctlmicit)' i11 modem Ecund01: E. Whitten, Jr. ed. Urbana, IL U ni versity ofU!i nois Press, pp. 677- 704. Yost, J. A., and P. M . Kelley. 1983. Shotguns, blowguns, :md spears: T he analysis of technological efficiency. In AdnptiJ't-' ,·espouses ofnn.tive Amnzrminns. R. 13. Hames and W. T. Vickers, eds. New York: Academ ic Press, pp. 189- 224. Yu , S. 2003. The Littorina transgression in so utheastern Sweden and its relation to mid -Holocene climate variabili ty, LU DQUA Tbesis .51. Dept. of Quaternary Geology, Lund University. Zdanovich, G. B. , and D . G. Zdanovich. 2002. The "Country ofTowns" of outhern Trans-Ural and some aspects of steppe assimilation in the Bronze Age. In Au.cimt imemctious cnst aud west i11 Em-nsia. K. Boyle, C. Ren frew, and M. Levi ne, cds. Cambridge, K: McDo nald Institute Monographs, niversity of Cambridge . Ze nt, Stanford. 1998. Inde pendent )•et inte rdepe ndent " lsode": The historical ecology of traditional Piaroa scttlcmenr pattern. In AdJJa1tces in Historical EcoiO!J)', W. Baice, ed. 1 ew York: Columbia niversity Press.

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Zcnt, Stanford. 1992. Historical and ethnographic ecology of the Upper Cuao River Wothi ha: Clues for an interpretation of native Guiancsc social organization. Ph.D. Disscnation, olumbia niversit:y. Zcnr, S. 2002. l ndcpcndem yet inrcrdcpcndcnr "Isode": The historical ecology< f t rad i tio n;~! P i aro;~ settlement pam:rn. In ArlJmuccJ in hi$toriml ecolog.r. W. Balce, cd . New York: Columbia Univc1 ity Press, pp. 251 -285. Zho u, L. M. , C. J. Tucker, R. K. K:lllfmann, D. Slayback, . V. Shabanov, and R. B. Myncni. 200 1. Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satell ite data of vegetation index during 198 I to 1999, jonmnl ojGcopl~1~·icnl RcJcnrcb-

Atmosphcrcs 106 ( D 17):20069-2008 3. Zimmerer, K. S, and T. J. Bassett, eds. 2003 . Political ecology: An integrative appro:-~ch ro geography and environmenr-dcvclopmcnt swd ics. New York: Gu ilford. Zolit chk:l, B., K. E. Bchre, and J. Schneider. 2003. Human and cl imate impact on the environment as derived from coll uvial, fl uvial and lacustrine archives-examples from the Bronze Age to the Migratio n period, Germa ny, Q]mtcmnr_y Science

R cJ>icrvs 22:8 1- 100. ZolitSchb, B., and J. F. 'IV. cgcndank. 1997. C l im:-~tc c h :-~ngc at the end of the third milknnium 1\.c.- Evidcncc ~1-om varved laCll trine sediments. In Tbi,·d willcnuimn !I. C. climntc clmugc nud old world collnpJc. H. 1 . Dalfcs, G . Kukla, and H. Weiss, cds. NATO AS! Series Vol I, 49: 679-690. Zucchi, A. 199 1. El Ncgro-Casiqu iarc -Alro Orinoco como ruta conecriva entre cl Amnonas y cl nortc de Suramcrica. In Proccedi11fJJ of the twelfth congrc.'i5 of the Iu.temntiou.nl Association for Cnri{lbenu A1·c1Jeolqgy. L. S. Robi nson, cd. Marriniquc, pp . 1-33. - - -2002. A new model of the northern Arawaka n expansion. In Compnmtivc Amwnknn !Jistorics: Rcthiukiug lmlff11ngcfmui~1' n.ud wltw·c nrcn. iu AmnZtmin. J. D. Hill and F. Santos-Gt-ancro, cds. Urbana, IL: nivcrsity of Illi nois Press, pp.

199-222.

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© 1-lornborg. AIf; Crum ley. Caro le L. J;ln 20. 20 10. The World System (lnd the Earth System : GLOBAL SOCIOENVI RONI Len Coast l>rcss. Inc.. Walnut Creek. ISBN: 97R 159ll74 7454

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Index

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Abel, Tom, 4 BMs (agent-based models), 5 1 abstr:tct wealth , l 04- l 05

afai, 241 accumulative dynamics in core-periphery relations, 138 :md fetishism of commodities, 104-

105 in huntin g and gathering societies,

108fi13 in Kachin society, 92- 94 in so m hcrn Africa, 123 Achagua tribe , 2 14 Ache tribe, 204 ch uar tribe , 20 I , 203, 204, 208 acidification , surfucc water, 42 :~daptarionism ,

5, 9 1- 92

adaptive c:1pacity, 46 Africa , cast paleoclirmrology, 126- 128 and southern frica , 128- 129 Ati·ica, northern, 12 1-122 Al'ric:~, southern and cast Africa, 128- 129 palcoc.:li marology, 123-126 Afrocurasia city-size distributions, 14 1 expansion waves in , 120 li nkages in , 75 sync hrony in , 133 Ali anovo culture, 154 " Against Political Ecology" (Vayda and Walters ), 264, 265 age nt-based models (ABMs ), 5 1 agri "ltlwral revolution as agrarianizatio n, 257fi14

and climate change , 111- 117, 119-

120 :t nd di se:tse transmission , 281 - 282 environmental fucro rs, 11 8 histo ry of, 245- 247 in so uthern Africa, 123- 124 agropasrora l econom y, 160, 162 fn I Akawaio tri be, 201, 202 kkadian conquest, 172 , 185 Alexander the Great, 96 Allen, Pe te r, 40 allopoicsi. , 23 Amazonia deforestation of, 23 1, 236 ecology of, 212 exchange networks, 21 1, 2 13- 2 15 intensification of settlement in , 218-

223 prehistoric population density, 8, 207209, 2 12- 213. Sec nls11 m:tzon i:tn carryin g capacity trade networks, 213- 2 15 Amnonian carrying capacit)' archeological evidence, 197- 201 climate fluctu ation, 205- 207 environmental limit:1tions, 196,

207- 208 ethnographic evidence, 201 - 205 historical evidence, 207, 208, 2 12 Amorircs, 185, 186 :lmu lcts, 2 14 , 226 Andean civilizarion, 66 Ande rson, David G., 139 Andronovo cu lture , 153- 154 anim:1l domestication and di c:tst: transmission , 282- 283

38 1

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382

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and geograp hy, 139- 140 in Neolithic Europe, 115 origins of, 245, 246 animal ecology Moran eficcr, 145-146 synchrony in, 7 79 Ammls oftiJe A.1socintio11 ofAm.cricnu Gcogmpbcrs, The, 263 anthropology functiona list cultural ecology, 91-92 global systemic, 95- 96 larx isr, 92 Arawakans ethos of, 218, 225 expansion ot~ 218-223,224 identity of, 2 16 languages of, 215- 218 :mnies, standing, 139 artifical intelligence, 25, 28fil2 Arya ns, 158 associ:uions, 24 atmospheric poll uta nts, 42 atm ospheric science, 20 Bacwezi empi re, 126 Balce, William, 28fn1 Barf rri be, 208 barrows, 150, 15 1, 154, 155 Battle xc culture, 150- 152 Bea ujard, Phi lippe, 8 1 beer in mazonia, 211 , 22 1, 224, 228fil7 in Tonga, 275 Berglund, Bjorn E., 5 Bilsky, Lester J., 28fn I biological S)'Stems, modeling ot~ 5 BIOME 6000 project, 243 biophysical·cu lwral integration barriers to, 37 and past-futu re inrcranions, 29- 30, 35 and cenario building, 35- 37 and Two C ultures divide, 3, 15-16, 18- 19,23 birth spacing, 203, 246 bits, horse, 156- 157 "born again" phenomenon, 26 Bose rup, Ester, 119

Teaching Shtick Page 67

Boulding, Ken neth, 36 boundaries of ecosystems, 61-62 brain functions, 25, 28fn2 Braude!, Fern:md, 139 Brazil, 295-300, 309 Bronze ge climate changes durin g, 116 deforest:uion and soil erosion duri ng, 37 hege mon)' in , 96-97 metallurgy during, ISO, 152- 153 trade duri ng, 154- 155 and warrior aristocracy, 155- 159 Browman, Da id, 222 bubonic plague, 85, 11 7 bulk goods networks ( BGNs), 62- 63, 81, 135 bureaucracies, 139 burials in Amazonia, 201 chien)', 155 as evidence of landsca pe history, 116 fa mi ly, 16 1 ' ith horses, 156 tumulllS, 152- 153 , 160 C

(cellular auromara ) models, 47- 51, 54,254 CAESAR model, 48-49, 50 c~ h okia, 208, 209 camcl loncs, 8, 219- 223 Ca mpa tribe, 2 15 capiralism in ancien world -systems, 71, 96 and fetishism of commodities, I 0 105 as torm of accumulation, 138 trade imbala nce inherent in, 310- 3 11 Cnpitnlism mui Sin very (William ), 315 Cn.pitnl (Marx ), 315 carbon -14 dating, 149- 150 carbon dioxide, 231, 239-240 carrying capaci ty of Amazonia. Sec Amazonia n carryi ng capacity archeologic:1l evidence fo r, 208, 209 dt:lim:d, 269

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in Fe rtile Crescent, 246 variability of, 272 Cashi na hua tribe, 203 cassava , 214 Catacomb culture, 150, 152 cattle, 151, 153 causal loop diagrams (CLDs), 247- 249 causation , 27 cave stalagmites, 123- 124 cellu lar automata (CA) models, 47- 5 1, 54,254 CEMCOS model, 49 cenrer-hirHerland conAicr in C him1 and Eumpc, 193- 194fn8 in Egypt and Mesopotamia, 168 , 170, 172- 177, 186 centrally pla nned economics, 39 ceramics. Sec pottery Chand ler, Tertius, 182 cha nge , social, 250- 252 chaos and complcxit}', 56, 72fnl and hierarchies, 24 and osci llations, 78- 79 in systems theory, 2 3 charims, 153- 158 Chase-Dunn, ,hris ophcr, 4 , 6, 62 Chavfn art style, 223 , 226 Chcrn ykh, E. 1 ., 153 Chew, ing, 180 chickens, 283 chiefdoms hegemonic C)'cles in, 92- 94 within nation -stares, 66 rise -and -fu ll sequences in, 139 Chile, 295- 300 Chi na expulsion of Mongols fi·o m, 80 hegemonic shift to, 102 middle ages in, 186 as nexus of multilateral trade, 313- 3 14 ninetecmh-cemury disasters in, 309 origin of agricultu re in, 246 pulse and collapse in , 66 reforestation in, 233 and semipcriphcral war ;cones, 137 world -system based around, 64

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383

C hi ngissid dynasties, 80 Chipaya tribe, 222 C hiripa culture, 222 CIJI·ist Stopped nt Eboli ( evi), 282 Circum-Pontic metallurgical system, 152- 153 civilizationisr anal ysis, 133 civil wars. Sec instabil ity, sociopolitical C lark, William , 259- 260 Clastrc , Pierre, 227fi1 3 Clement , Frederic, 25 climate and easr-wcsr synchrony, 79- 8 1 in p;l leo-enviro nmental reco nstruction, 42 and South Asian asynchrony, 81 Climn te and Cil'ilizatioll ( Huntington ), 132 climate change and agricultural expansion, 11 1- 117 in Amazonia, 205- 207 and dara· modcli ng inte raction, 31 in Egypt, 171-172, 178-179fn9, 178fi17, 178fi18. See nlso Egyptia nMesopotamian synchro ny as endoge nous process, 77 modeling dTccrs on popula ion, 14 147 and social change, 6, 129- 130, 132133 cl imate modeling initial assumptions of, 20 and paleoenvironmental records, 47-48 cli mate records, heterogeneity of, I 12 coasml wetlands, 49 collapse, socier:1l classification of, 2 5 I o n Ea rcr Island, 257fi19, 270- 272 in world -systems, 66 colon ialism, 4, 250 , 274-275 com munication, 23 complex adaprive sy rcms ( ,A si mulation , 254 complexity defined, 56 in environmental sciences, 40-42

384

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1:-IDEX

and hcterarc hy, 17- 18 in human-environmem systems, 23- 24 modeling of, 254 Odum's work on , 72- 73fn1 and reductionism, 39-40 in work of O yvind Fah lstrom, 39 complicity, 53 concerration , 19 Con nanr, Gary, I93fn5 conq uistadors, 207 Constantinople, 187, 189 consumer product labeling, 235 consumption patterns, 233, 237 conting~:ncy, 30- 31, 46 Cook, James, 271 C< ok Islands, 277 Copan, 208, 209 Copernican revolurion, second, 34 coppicing, 11 4 Corded Ware cu lw re , 150-152 core-periphe ry relation . Sec also centerhi nterland conAict and accumulation dynamics, 138 and entropy, 11, 305- 31 0 and rise·and· f. z l.!.l

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lake levels in cast frica, I 26 in northern Africa, 121- 122 Lamb, H. H., 23 Laud Dcgrndation aud Societ-y ( Blaikic

and Brookfield ), 266 land ethic, I 5, 16 landnam, 11 4 Landscape Ecology 22 landscape and politics, 19 and science-hu manities integration, 16- 17,21 landscape sensitivity, 46 land usc prediction of, 33- 34 recent ch:mges in, 240- 24 1 language hegemony, 68 , 73fn2 languages mazonian, 205- 206, 215- 2 18 Indo-European, 152,158, 160 Indo-Iranian, 154 Nhcengati"1 , 218 , 224 Quecln1a, 224 La Nif\a, 128 Lapanar:n -Mahlatule famine, 128 Ln tc Victorian H olocausts (Davis ), I 32 Lathrap, Donald, 227fn2 Leach, Edmund , 5 Leopold, Aldo, 15, 16 Levi, Carlo 282 Levin, Simon , 58 Lewin, Roger, 280 linguistic distribution , 2 15- 2 I 9 Little Icc Age, 117, 122 , 123 Livi-Bacci, Massimo, 287fi1 1 local mechanisms, 77- 78 , 8 1 logical types, 25 logistic growth curve, 252 Lovejoy, Tom , 236 Lubchenco, Jane, 258- 259 , 266 Mach iguenga tribe , 203

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389

machines, 306- 307 macro-determ inacy, 3-4 magnetic ana lysis, 42 Mai kop cu lture, 153, 159 maize, 125- 126, 128 ,22 1, 224, 228fi17 Maim , Thomas, 10 Maltl1us, Thomas, 84, 88 , 269- 270 Mandell , Daniel , 9 man ioc, 196, 2 15, 221, 224, 227fn2 , 228fn7 Manley, Gordon, 23 Mapungubwe, 124 Marq uardt, Wi ll iam I ., 28fi11 Marx, Karl , 315 Marxism and anrh ropolof,')', 92 and fetishism of commodities, 104 and modeling of social systems, 5 material Aow acco un ting ( !FA ) data sources, 295- 296 described, 288- 289 290 discussion , 300- 302 studies, 296- 300 and world -systems, 11, 291 Mau rya empire, 186 Ma)•an civilization, 66, 208 , 209 maze-way reformulation , 26 McCulloch , Warren , 25 measles, 283 medieval period climate change dmin g, 117, 122 deforestation and soil erosion during, 37 Mcggers, Berty, 7- 8, 213 , 228fn6 Mesa Ve rde, 208 Meso potamia. Sec nlso Egyptia nMesoporam ian synchrony Akkadian conquest of, I 85 Ka sire conque t of, 158 property transmission in , 159 metabolism, societal , 288- 289 metallurgy, 150, 152- 153 MF . See material Aow accounting micro-detcrminaC)' 3-4 microeco1ogy, 22 migration pe riod , I 16- 1 I7 mi grations

390

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1:-IDEX

in Afi·ica, 129 as diffi1sion , 217- 218 in Eurasi:tn exp:tnsion, 149- 150 a response to re ource scarcity, 244 mi litar y- industrial complex, 309- 310 mining, 45 Minoa n civilization , 106-107 MIIU\13, 276 miser y, 88 mobile.: wealth, 160 mode ling and biop hysica l-cu ltural integration, 35- 37 crite ri a for, 32 cultural vs. science-based, 20- 2 1 role of d:tta in, 20, 31 and rulc.:s, 3 Modclsk.i , George, 7 modernism, 98- 99 Mongol conquest, 80- 81 monogam y, 160 monopo lies, trade, 96 monsoons, 43, 45, 178fil 7 Moran , Emil io, 2 , 8 Moran effect, 145- 146 mortars, sro nc , 159 motor vehicles, 231, 233 , 237 mo und cultivation , 8, 219- 223 movement, 78 muli l:uer:t l systems, 306 mul ti -agent simulatio n (M S), 254 multidimensional mode ling, 39 multidiscipli nary resea rch, 17 mu lrilatera liry, 305, 3 10- 316 Multiln tcm/ M erchnudiJc Ti-n de

Imbnln.tlccs n11d U11evm Ecouomic Dcilc/opmellt (Frank ), 310 multi -scale ecology, 21 - 23 mu sical chair analogy, 311 - 312 M ycen:te:tn civi liz:ttion, 180 Myrdal, Janken , 119 n:trrarive recon struction and biop hysica l-cu ltu ral integ ration, 30- 3 1 crite ri:t ft)r, 32 and si mulation modeling 46-47

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ationa l Oceanic and Atmosphe ric Administration ( OAA ), 20 N:uiona l Research Counc il , 259 nation -states, format ion of, 18 na ural dis:tsters, 106- 107 auru, 27 1, 277 ebuchadnczza r, 25 1 colirhic period agropastora l economics in, 150- 152 climate: chan ges in, 11 3-11 6 coli thization , 225 , 227fil2 neura l net , 25 New Kingdom, 186 ew Orleans, 106- 107 Cll' Yodt Tim es, 236 gu ni soc iety, 125 heen ga ttl language:, 218 , 224 ile river, 172, 178fn8 nitrogen , 238 , 240 nitrous oxide, 23 1 iu e, 277 nonl ineari ty and bifurcations, 305- 306 in environmemal sciences, 40-42 as feawre of complex systems, 56 :md modeli ng offmu rc sce narios, 33 Odum 's researc h on, 72fn 1 in pa rallel histories , 46 nonre newable: resources, 58- 59 nuclear resting, 10, 276 n uclear waste , 306 Nyarubanga f.1 m inc, 122 Oberg, Helena , 6 Oceania forei g n aid and independe nce, 276-

277 gcostratcgic locatio n of, 175- 176 and globalization , 273 occ:tnic conveyo r bclr, 238 Odum Howard T., 4 , 72- 73fn I , ?2fi1 I offshore finance centers, 277 O ldfield , Fran k, 3 Omaha kinshi p syste m , 160, 161 Opium, Empire, tmd G/obnl Politicn l EcmlOW)' (Trocki ), 315 Opium Wars, 309

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oral tradition, 18 ornamcms, 214, 226 oscil brory dynamics, 78- 79 Om· Com won Joumey ( Kan:s and Cla rk ), 260 overgraz1ng in cast Africa, 126 in Eurasia n expansion, ISO in Scandinavia, 118 and warfare , 251 overshooti ng, 252, 269 oxen, 152 oxygcn-isoropc studies, 18, 123 OZOill.: d~o:ph.:tion , 231

Q

Pacific I land ocicrie , 95- 96 pah.:obiological analysis, 112 palcoclim:uology and agrarian societies, I I 1- 1 12 and landscape development, 119- 12 0 m:tgnirude ofehanges 121 - 122 in northweste rn Europe, 113- 117 southern Africa, 123-126 palco-cnvironmenr:tl reconstruction and archeological findi ngs, 42 and current cnvironment:1l conditions, 42 6 Lake Erhai case study, 43-46 palm trees, 20 I , 207- 208 Panoan peoples, 2 15 Pnmdisc jo1· Snlc (McDa niel and Gowd y), 272 parallel histOries, 45-47, 49 , 55 past-fuwrc interactions, 29- 30, 33- 36, 46, 122- 123 pasmralism, 150- 151, 160, 162fi11 , 246 pasr u res, 116 patrilineal ki nship syste ms, 160, 161 pearl , 274 perturbations in ecosystems, 58 and oscillatory synchrony, 79 pluse -shifrs. Sec ync hron y Philippi nes, 309 Phi llip of Macedonia, 97 physical trade babncc ( PTB ), 296, 299- 300

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39 1

phy ics envy, 4 1 Piaroa tribe , 202, 204 pigs, l SI , 245, 283 Piro tribe , 215 pb.m domestication, 139- 140, 245 pol icymaking, modeling for, 35 political boundaries, 4 political decision making, modeling, 51 pol itica l ecology and sustai nability science , 26 1- 264, 26 267 trends and issues, 9- 10, 26 265 pol iticaljmilir:tr y networks ( PM s), 62, 81 , 135, 140 pollen an:1lysis in Amar.onia, 205 in Europe, 36 , 11 2 , 119 of Mesoporami:111 l:lke sedimcnrs, 171 Pol ynesia , 274 Pomeranz, Ke nneth, 304, 315 Popper, Karl, 33 pnpulation and tcmper:-~tu re, 253 population, world , 183 , 192- l93fn4, 193 population dymmics and :tgriculru ral development, 119 in Amazoni a, 204 current understanding o~~ 242 during dark :tges, 185 in c:1St Afi·ic:1, 126 and cast-west synchro ny, 14 1- 144 logistic cu rve, 252 Malthusi:ln perspective, 269- 270 in preindustrial England , 83 recent, 236- 237 in so uthern Afri c:1 , 124 positivism , 18 postmodernism, 32, 99 pottery in Amazonia, 197- 200, 214 and eth nic identity, 218 :t nd linguisric distribution, 2 19 Powe1· oftbe Mn.cbiue, TJJc (H ornborg) , 306- 308 Prebisch-Singcr the is, 294 precipitation

392

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1:-IDEX

future c h ~ n gcs in, 12 1 in Neoli thic Europe, 115 in sourhwe.st Asia, 171 p rcd i ct~b il i ty, 37 pre hu man impact conditions, 42 prestige goods in Ca ucasian burials, 153 and chiefdoms, 139 and in te nsificatio n of resource usc, 224 in Pacific Island societies, 95- 96 r~nk b~scd on, 160 and ru k c x p~ n sion, 159 prestige goods networks ( PGNs ), 57, 62 Afi-o~:u ras i an linkages in, 75 in Amazonia, 213-2 15 core-periphery hierarc hies, 135- 136 and cast-west ynchrony, 140 and ideological integratio n, 228fn7 and South Asia, 8 1 in southern Afi·ica, 123 prie ts, 160, 250 Proceedings of the ationnl Acn.ricmy of ScimCCJ~ TIJe 263 proce interactions, 30, 31 Profhrionnl Gcogrnplm; The, 263 proto-urban com mu nities, 152 PTB ( phys ical trade balance ), 296, 299- 300 public transportation, 233 pulsi ng, 72fn l in Afi·ocu rasi~, 120 and d~rk ages, 188 described, 138- 140 in ecosystems, 58 as evidence of system ness, 4, 74 as feat ure of co mplex systems, 56 and modern globali zario n, 133 types of, 67- 70 ofworld -sy tcms, 65- 67 Pumc tri be, 208 q ualitative vs. quantitative rcsean.:h, 19, 22 Q uechu~ la nguage, 224 q uiripa,2 14 ra inforest loss, 231, 236

Teaching Shtick Page 77

raised fie lds, 8, 2 19- 223 Raleigh, Sir Walter, 207 reductionism and complexity, 39, 4 1 and systems theor)•, 3, 23 vs. ho lism, 46-47, 5 1- 52 reforestation, 233 regime tra nsitions, 168, 170, 174 regional ~ n al ysis, 133 R cgirmnl Dynamics: Bm;gmufinu. Lm1dscn.pcs iu. H ist01·icnl Pn·spccti11e (C rum ley ~ n d M ~ rq u ~rdt ) , 28fil l regulatio ns, en ironmenral, 233 religio n, 137, 158- 159 renewable resources, 58- 59 reorganizatio n. Sec dark age repeatabi li ty, 37 reproductive behavior, 203, 24 1, 246 rc.sc~rch, modes of, 30 resti ng points, 53 , 55 revitalization movement , 26 revolutio ns, 76 Rice, Don S., 28fn l ridged fie lds, 8, 219- 223 Ri g Veda, 159 rise-and -fu ll sequence , 138-140 rive r levels, 17 1- 172, 178fn8 Ro man empire center-hi nterland con Aict, 186 da rk ages fo llowing, 18 1 e nd of, 193617 environmental imp~ct d uring, 3, 37 hegemonic decli ne in, 97- 99 pulse and collapse in 66 ~nd scmiperipheral wa r .:ones, 137 Roosevelt, An na, 213 r-srraregisrs, 255 rules (in simu lation models ), 49, 5 1- 55 Runa tribe, 204 Russian empire, 80 Russian revol ution, 76 ahara, dessication of, 31 177, 178-179fi19, 248 amoa, 275, 277 San Francisco, 285- 286 Sargon of Ak kad, 172, 185 sali n i z

and the historical social world systems ultimately form a single inseparable whole, whose mode of operation needs to be elucidated."

- IMMANUEL WALLERSTEIN, Yale University

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